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Global Economic Intersection Analysis Blog Feed 1970-01-01 00:00:00

October 4, 2021

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Misinformation: Strategic Sharing, Homophily, And Endogenous Echo Chambers

August 27, 2021

Posted on 27 August 2021
by Daron Acemoglu

— this post authored by Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, and James Siderius, Vox eu.orgMisinformation spreads rapidly on social media platforms. This column uses a model of online content-sharing to show that a social media platform that wishes to maximise content engagement will propagate extreme articles amongst its most extremist users. ‘Filter bubbles’ prevent the content from spreading beyond its extremist demographic, creating ‘echo chambers’ in which misinformation circulates. The threat of censorship and a corresponding loss in engagement could pressure platforms to fact-check themselves, while regulating their algorithms could mitigate the consequences of filter bubbles.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right

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Misinformation: Strategic Sharing, Homophily, And Endogenous Echo Chambers

August 27, 2021

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Understated Inflation Produces ‘Unreal’ GDP Growth Double Real Growth

August 27, 2021

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Fiscal Austerity Intensifies The Increase In Inequality After Pandemics

August 25, 2021

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Fiscal Austerity Intensifies The Increase In Inequality After Pandemics

August 25, 2021

Posted on 25 August 2021

from Voxeu.org

— this post authored by Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Pietro Pizzuto

In the aftermath of past pandemics, fiscal policy played an important role in reducing or amplifying income inequality. This column predicts the likely distributional effects of Covid-19 by analysing evidence from five previous outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and Zika). It finds that severe austerity measures were associated with inequality increases three times greater than expansive fiscal policy following a pandemic. Premature austerity is self-defeating from both a macro and an equity standpoint.

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In the early months of COVID-19, there

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Buy Businesses, Not Stocks

August 22, 2021

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Buy Businesses, Not Stocks

August 22, 2021

Posted on 22 August 2021
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

I write this letter on my way home from Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where I spoke to the fascinating “GoBundance" group of mostly young, successful, enthusiastic entrepreneurs.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Before that I was in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, for the Camp Kotok economics/fishing retreat. I’ll have some details for you later. Today we will look back a few months to a Strategic Investment Conference presentation that truly affirms my optimistic outlook for both business and humanity.You’ve probably heard of Ron Baron, founder of Baron Funds which has grown to a stable of not just mutual funds but a variety of private investments and Ron’s

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The Cost Of Populism: Evidence From History

August 21, 2021

Posted on 21 August 2021
from Voxeu.org

— this post authored by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph TrebeschThe rise of populism in the past two decades has motivated much work on its drivers, but less is known about its economic and political consequences.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. This column uses a comprehensive cross-country database on populism dating back to 1900 to offer a historical, long-run perspective. It shows that (1) populism has a long history and is serial in nature – if countries have been governed by a populist once, they are much more likely to see another populist coming to office in the future; (2) populist leadership is economically costly, with a notable long-run decline in

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The Cost Of Populism: Evidence From History

August 21, 2021

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What Makes A Disease Eradicable?

August 18, 2021

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What Makes A Disease Eradicable?

August 18, 2021

Posted on 18 August 2021

Written by Econintersect Guest

— this post authored by Sophie Ochmann, Our World in Data

Before answering this question, it is important to understand what exactly eradication entails, especially in contrast to the elimination of a disease. While the eradication of a disease is permanent and global, the elimination of a disease is an achievement restricted to a specific geographic area such as a country or continent.

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It is not possible to clearly draw a line between eradicable and non-eradicable diseases. Diseases only become eradicable after scientific discoveries give us the tools to fight them. Smallpox was a disease that killed millions every year and

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The Data Shows The Fed Is Behind The Surging Wealth Gap

August 18, 2021

Posted on 18 August 2021
by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial

The data shows the Fed is behind the surging wealth gap. Such is despite protestations “Quantitative Easing" and “Zero Interest Rate Policy" do not affect the financial markets.Such was noted previously by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari:“QE conspiracists can say this is all about balance sheet growth. Someone explain how swapping one short-term risk-free instrument (reserves) for another short-term risk-free instrument (t-bills) leads to equity repricing. I don’t see it."While he may be “technically correct," there is ample evidence of a direct impact on financial markets. As discussed in “Past Performance Is A Guarantee":“Given the high correlation between the financial markets and the Federal Reserve

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The Data Shows The Fed Is Behind The Surging Wealth Gap

August 18, 2021

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Re-Evaluating The Sources Of The Recent Productivity Slowdown

August 17, 2021

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Re-Evaluating The Sources Of The Recent Productivity Slowdown

August 17, 2021

Posted on 16 August 2021
from Voxeu.org

— this post authored by Ian Goldin, Pantelis Koutroumpis, François Lafond, and Julian WinklerLabour productivity is a key determinant in improving living standards. But in recent years, productivity has stagnated, if not declined, in many countries around the world. This column re-evaluates the various reasons as to why this might be, applying three criteria to the existing explanations for the slowdown. It finds that the slowdown in productivity can be attributed to numerous factors, ranging from mismeasurement to changes in trade patterns.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Labour productivity growth is the main long-run determinant of improved living standards. Its recent decline

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Ubiquity, Complexity, And Sandpiles

August 15, 2021

Posted on 15 August 2021

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

"How did you go bankrupt?"

"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

. ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

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Change happens quickly and, often, unpredictably. And as we will see, the unpredictable part is actually a mathematical principle. As in the Hemingway quote above, not just bankruptcy but change also happens slowly and then, seemingly, all at once. It’s time passing without change that causes the worst problems, including some historic economic catastrophes. It turns out we shouldn’t just accept change; we actually need it.

Last week, I said we would skip this letter since I’m fishing with friends

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Ubiquity, Complexity, And Sandpiles

August 15, 2021

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The Evolution Of ‘Big’: How Sociality Made Life Larger

August 14, 2021

Posted on 13 August 2021
by Blair Fix

The game I play is a very interesting one.It’s imagination in a tight straitjacket.- Richard FeynmanLike Richard Feynman’s game of science, evolution is stuck in a straitjacket. It is driven by chance. But evolution is not free to explore every path.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Take, as an example, the evolution of organism size. While it seems like there are many routes to bigness, I propose that there is fundamentally only one: sociality. In the march towards ever-larger organisms, there have been three major revolutions. All of them involved the merger of previously autonomous organisms into a new communal creature. I call this route to bigness ‘size through sociality’. It is a

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The Evolution Of ‘Big’: How Sociality Made Life Larger

August 14, 2021

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Oil Markets, Fracking, And The Global Economy

August 11, 2021

Posted on 11 August 2021
from Voxeu.org

— this post authored by Gideon Bornstein, Per Krusell, and Sergio Rebelo, Voxeu.orgOil markets have long been central to discussions of the global economy, and fluctuations in oil prices frequently gain widespread attention. This column explores the impact of the rising use of fracking on how oil markets are best conceived within modern macroeconomic theory. The author’s model predicts that as fracking accounts for an increasingly sizeable fraction of the world oil supply, it may herald a new era of lower, more stable oil prices.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.How important is the oil market for the global economy? Although oil shocks are often viewed as responsible for the poor

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COVID Consumer Headache

August 9, 2021

Posted on 08 August 2021
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

If you look just at 2021, it seems the US economy is tearing higher. Real GDP grew an annualized +6.5% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated last week.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.This follows a similar +6.3% first quarter, and a pandemic-interrupted 2020 that turned out not so bad in the end. The July unemployment report showed more impressive jobs growth. The Fed will increasingly have problems maintaining its credibility with interest rates at the zero bound and massive QE and inflation still rising.For one thing, we’re only halfway through 2021. Much of this impressive growth derives from consumer spending, and much of the

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Understanding How Central Banks Use Their Balance Sheets: A Critical Categorisation

August 7, 2021

Posted on 07 August 2021
from Voxeu.org

— this post authored by Stephen Cecchetti, Brandeis International Business School and Paul Tucker, Harvard Kennedy SchoolSince the Global Crisis, the size of central bank balance sheets has grown significantly. Traditional goals of price and financial stability are insufficient for assessing the success of modern central banking operations. Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.This column introduces a new framework for categorising and understanding central bank balance sheet operations. Monetary policy decisions are separated from facilities for lender of last resort, market maker of last resort, providing selective credit, and ensuring emergency government financing. To maintain

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Global Food Production: Too Little And Too Much

August 5, 2021

Posted on 05 August 2021
by Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist

On one hand, it seems terribly important that global food supply increase dramatically in the next few decades, to feed the hungry around the world as global population rises. On another hand, obesity is a huge and ongoing health problem globally, even in many countries that do not have high income levels. And on yet a third hand, food production around the world is often a major contributor to environmental degradation, being related to issues including water pollution, deforestation, pesticides that linger in the ecosystem, and release of greenhouse gases.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.A desirable path for the future of global food production will take

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Krugman’s Delusion: The Difference Of Theory Versus Reality.

August 5, 2021

Posted on 05 August 2021
by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial

In a recent interview with Business Insider, Paul Krugman’s delusion was evident as the difference between economic theory and reality was on full display.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.However, such is always the difference between economists who spent their lives in the “ivory towers" of academia instead of those who created businesses, jobs, and prosperity.While many economists attempt to make economic theory a science, it is still a function of human psychology and behaviors. For example, the theory is that if the price of beef rises too much, consumers will switch to chicken. However, in practice, individuals often make other choices instead.Most

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Policy Errors Have Consequences

August 1, 2021

Posted on 01 August 2021
by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

This week’s Fed statement was another non-story. They added a new line about continuing to “assess progress" which some interpret as a step toward tapering. If so, it was a baby step. They’re simply thinking about whether they should start discussing the possibility of making a plan to begin tightening when conditions are right.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.“T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out."- – John Hussman, July 29, 2021“If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in

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Clouds Likely To Provide A Positive Contribution To Global Warming, But Magnitude Is Uncertain

July 30, 2021

Posted on 30 July 2021
Written by Econintersect Guest

— this post authored by Ayesha Tandon, Carbon BriefClouds study finds that low climate sensitivity is ‘extremely unlikely’The response of clouds to a change in global temperature – known as the “cloud feedback" – plays a crucial role in how much the planet will warm. However, estimates of cloud feedback are uncertain. The new study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, uses global satellite observations to reduce this uncertainty.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Taking their findings into account, the authors produce a central estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the global temperature change resulting from a doubling of

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German Reconstruction As State-Phobia

July 30, 2021

Posted on 29 July 2021
by Philip Pilkington

Nazism and Neoliberal Mythmaking, Part 1In a previous series of pieces about the origins of neoliberalism (available here: Part I, Part II, Part III and an interview) I put forward the idea that neoliberalism – and its extremist offshoot, libertarianism as represented by the Austrian School – was founded on a very specific myth. This myth I called “Hayek’s delusion" and it holds that any sort of economic planning will inevitably lead to totalitarianism. Thus even well-intentioned Keynesian policies of economic planning contain within them the seeds of the next Third Reich.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.In the first part of that series I tried to show that this myth had its

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As Scientists Have Long Predicted, Warming Is Making Heatwaves More Deadly

July 26, 2021

Posted on 26 July 2021
Written by Econintersect Guest

— this post authored by Dana Nuccitelli, Yale Climate ConnectionsIn its 2001 Third Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) foresaw that global warming would lead to increasingly deadly heatwaves. The world’s top climate scientists warned:“More hot days and heatwaves are very likely over nearly all land areas. These increases are projected to be largest mainly in areas where soil moisture decreases occur." Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.They wrote at the time:“The greatest increases in thermal stress are forecast for mid- to high-latitude (temperate) cities, especially in populations with non-adapted architecture and limited air

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Federal Reserve Folly

July 25, 2021

Posted on 25 July 2021

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest recession on record at only two months.

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The NBER committee always makes these calls in hindsight – both the beginning and end of recessions. Literally everyone could see the economy coming to a halt in March and April. The signs weren’t subtle. Yet it wasn’t until June 8, 2020, that they said the economy had peaked in February, marking the recession’s

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