A frequent topic on the radio focuses on the difficult to define topic of “affordable housing.” This is really subjective and terribly idiosyncratic to the local level which makes it difficult to discuss. I provide a look at index values at the national level, just to see the course of these over time. I use nominal disposable per capita income and the FHFA price index, with all values indexed to 100 in January of 1991.

There is a remarkable consistency to the track of the two data series over time with the home price data showing the clear signs of the housing boom and eventual bust. In addition the personal income data shows a spike in the monthly income series, and a drastic drop due to COVID. This data only confirms how difficult it is to evaluate the issue of

I took a look sales tax data for Grand Forks this week. 2020 started off well for Grand Forks, well ahead of 2019. After that there were notable drops and changes to the point where it was well below levels from previous years.

In terms of the rolling total for the year we see that 2020 continues to stay ahead of the pace for 2019. There are broader concerns about the sustainability of economic performance as well as the local economic impacts on small businesses of the surge in COVID. That is not necessarily going to show up in a graph of collections. Purchases from online and people shifting to making food at home versus restaurants will not necessarily show up in these figures.

Obviously COVID changed the nature of purchasing by consumers. This graph shows the different

I will get back to the moving average representations and other analysis soon but I wanted to try and think about this from a different visualization. In general I think it is accepted with this, and any disease for that matter, that you get exposure to the disease which shows up with positives, positives lead to hospitalizations, and hospitalizations lead (unfortunately) to deaths. So how are the county positives looking? I look at two different measures, the seven day total positivity rate, and the week-over-week growth in positives.

The color coding represents the 7 day positivity level. Higher levels on each of the scales is a bad thing. We can see there are two outlier counties right off the bat. There is a significant amount of congestion in the 15% level of the

One of the big stories nationally, and rightly so, focuses on the adjustments in labor markets, or really the lack of adjustments in labor markets. We still see national initial claims for unemployment in the hundreds of thousands, and while job creation is good, we have not got back all the jobs lost. In North Dakota it is a somewhat similar story.

We are all aware of the record levels of initial claims in North Dakota this year but what we see here in the map above is the major economic areas for retail, for hospitality, for energy, and other sectors are the source of the highest level of initial claims.

Behind the scenes with all these claims are the changed economic circumstances due to COVID forcing very difficult decisions at businesses and households. We can attempt

Positivity rates are climbing, faster in Ward and Williams than elsewhere, but they are still climbing. Burleigh, Cass, Grand Forks, and Morton counties are all increasing and are at or near 15% for positivity rates (for the 15 day MA). It is not really a surprise to see discussions about the capacity of the health system when you see these levels of positivity.

Of course, with such high positivity you do get the increases in hospitalizations and the chance of more deaths. We see that happening for all the counties, though again rates of increase vary.

Grand Forks and Williams remain lower than others while Ward witnessed a shocking increase in deaths to draw close to Burleigh and Cass.
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The state COVID data system was down yesterday so I was not able to update graphs so we have a bit of a gap but not much really. It would be nice to report a dramatic reversal, but no such luck.

The overall state positivity rate continues to increase up with the 7 day centered MA approaching the 17.5% level, and recent observations make it likely to continue the increase.

ND still leads in testing per capita but that is not helping as the positives continue to increase at an even faster pace than testing. We are now at more than 7.5% of the state testing positive at this point. The concerns about overloading the health capacity of the state is real and comes at a time when the entire country experiences the same means we have little in the way of options right now.
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The numbers continue to move in the wrong direction. It is pretty much as simple as that.

The big western North Dakota counties positivity rate continues to accelerate past the level in the other counties. Williams looks set to eclipse 20% positivity without a major reversal. The other counties remain at levels flirting with 15%.

The increase in positivity for Ward county clearly coincides with the increase in deaths there unfortunately. Grand Forks and Williams remain lower in total deaths though circumstances are still fluid enough that nobody should be resting easy right now.

These included counties represent such a concentration of population, economic activity, and medical services that the circumstances in them would naturally be expected to transmit around the

The Governor gave another press conference today describing the situation in a way very similar to what I detailed over the last few weeks. We are at, or near, an exponential growth situation for virus cases. The Governor’s message was about strain on the health network in the state, which is a real concern going forward.

Positivity rates continue to increase and are spiking in that exponential fashion. The volume of cases mean that difficult cases are increasing and thus so are hospitalizations. Difficult cases increase and naturally so do deaths. This relationship is really not in question. Essentially without some type of reversal in the near future we can expect at least some of the worst case health crisis mentioned throughout the last few months.

The red line is the

The positivity data for the different counties (15 day MA) shows all the positivity rates for all the counties rising, with Ward county still uncomfortably high. However, all the counties are looking to eclipse 15% soon.

The widespread incidence of COVID indicated here corresponds well with the death information in the next graph.

All counties are seeing increases in deaths, with the pace of increase highest in Ward county as well as the fact that Ward is narrowing the gap in deaths with Burleigh and Cass. Grand Forks, Morton, and Williams all show increases though the pace of increase is lower right now.
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The COVID-19 situation is still not looking good in the state. We are seeing the various metrics continue to move in the wrong direction.

The positivity rate for susceptible test encounters continues to increase. The 15-day MA is well above 12.5% and the 7-day MA is above 15%. These thresholds are important indicators of the level of community spread and the risks in the region.

I also took a look at the number of individuals tested, that is, only counting a person once, regardless of how many times they tested and the positive outcomes, both as a percentage of the overall population. If we keep going in the future the way the last 7 days went, it will be about 16 days before we cross the 10% mark for positives as a share of state population. The problem is the rate appears

I changed the centered moving average from 14 days to 15 days. Why? With 15 days there is a natural center date so that is one reason. A 15 day moving average is not going to look significantly different from a 14 day moving average, so that is reason two. The idea behind the moving average at this length is that the state of North Dakota reports the 14 day average, and it coincides with the typical incubation period.

We see the consistent increase in the moving average since about July. The moving average allows us to smooth out the variation that occurs in the daily positivity rate (17.2% for 11/05/2020).

I also made an identical calculation for the larger counties in the state. The situation is more variable at the county level with some higher and some lower than the

So I am updating the deaths numbers again, and I have some new graphs to post. I am still working on positivity numbers and will have new posts for that soon.

The mass of deaths towards the recent end of the graph is again symptomatic of the large degree of positive cases and community spread experienced currently in North Dakota. In terms of the cumulative number of deaths, not the simple daily count as above we have:

This is the cumulative sum in the state and the notable feature is not the level, it is how the graph slope takes a sharp upward turn right before October. The picture is consistent with the other graph and the situation with community spread timing in North Dakota.

I wanted to also provide a comparison graph for certain counties. If you have a county you

Just focusing on the deaths graph today. I am reworking a few of the other graphs and will start reposting them as soon as I figure out how they will look best. One thing to keep in mind with the deaths graph is that on any given day the numbers change for more than just that day. What do I mean?

If you looked at the release from the ND Department of Health there were something around 15 deaths announced in today’s release. However there are only 2 deaths in the data release today for November 2. There is a lag in reporting the deaths and the state rightly announces the deaths when they know about them, and then allocates them in the data file to the actual date of death. Just something to keep in mind when you hear things and the data do not necessarily match. This is nothing

The State Health Department reported 9 new deaths today, though the delay in death certificates does not mean those are all from yesterday. Any one day is not necessarily a major data point from the state level (it clearly is to those knowing someone that died). It is the mass of larger numbers occurring at the end of September and into October that should be of concern because these are increasing as the COVID positivity rates are rising.

We really need to start worrying about the positivity increase and the resulting stress on medical facilities and possible increases in fatalities (see for example the Ward county graph I posted today).

At some level it feels like the long delay in COVID issues impacting health systems is over. The persistent increases in positivity

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
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The daily positivity rate continued above 10% in today’s release.

What we are seeing is the continued increase regardless of testing levels. The state is just under the 12.5% positivity rate by this measure right now and only 2 of the last 6 days were below this level expect a continued increase.

The same situation is bearing out when we look at the positivity rate with total tests. The immediate future looks ripe for increases in the centered moving average.

The susceptible encounters continue to be high in several counties so testing is hopefully finding the sources of the disease though at our current levels the usefulness of contact tracing is a bit of a question.

It is time to turn to some broader questions. Tracking the COVID 19 data was largely public

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
View all posts by David

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
View all posts by David

Took yesterday as an off day to do Halloween things. We set records for positives on Friday and Saturday which is obviously discouraging. The data release today showed a daily positivity rate above 12% and the moving average is above 12% for the state now.

Just from the perspective of the math, this is a really important week for the numbers. The single digit percentages are starting to roll off the MA calculation. With the rates of positivity where they are now the best bet to get to low percentages is to drive up test numbers significantly.

The total test positivity rate displays the continued increase as well. Seven of the last 10 days were above double digits for this rate as well and again the math seems to indicate we will be increasing for some time.

The graph

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
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The state had over 1,350 positives in today’s release setting a positive case record for each of the last two days.

My MA positivity rate is up to 11.56%, clearly the high value as can be seen from the graph. With the daily rate at 12.1%, and considering the recent data in general, the rate will continue to rise. The hospitalization stories in the newspapers seem consistent with these types of positivity rates.

The basic positivity rate shows much the same situation as we saw in earlier graphs.

The latest data point showed a high testing volume and the recent spread of the data points is indicative of the overall increase in testing efforts. .
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David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
View all posts by David

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
View all posts by David

Axios has an interview with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) where among other topics the idea of fiscal conservatism coming back in former VP Joseph Biden were to win the presidency. It is worth a watch and can be found here. It is pointed out that it is incredibly convenient to have such an attitude when the party occupying the White House changes. It is not really fiscal discipline at all, if it simply amounts to not letting the other party claim a legislative victory. That is just politics.

The broader issue I have with the concept of fiscal discipline, fiscal restraint, or whatever other term you want to use is that it is meaningless. It simply does not exist in any meaningful terms these days. I saw a New York Times article discussing the McConnell influence over a relief bill as

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
View all posts by David

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
View all posts by David

The point observation reported today (and therefore for 26 October) was 14.8%. The point observation from yesterday was in the 8% range. This is exactly why a smoothed out approach like the moving average is what I am using. However, with the higher values in the last seven days even the smoothed out process pushes well above the 10% threshold.

The positivity rate above is approaching 11% at this point and seems likely to continue to increase for a significant amount of time given these high numbers currently replacing the lower numbers from 14 days ago.

The total test positivity rate is now above the 10% threshold too. The sum total of this is not good as it pretty clearly indicates widespread COVID in the state at this point.

The testing count is still going well but

The latest data shows the state breaking through the 10% mark with the 14-day moving average. This is a big deal in terms of the level of COVID testing is now finding in the state. Health organizations generally view this as widespread community spread and it is a big threat to vulnerable populations.

The number of yellow dots on the right above ten percent indicate the MA is going to stay above 10% for some time right now, even with several days below that threshold. That has not happened yet, today’s number was above 8% and the entire point of presenting this in a moving average form is to smooth out fluctuations.

With total cases we are seeing the same thing again with the large number of yellow dots above the 10% threshold which means we will be above 10% on this metric

David

Economist and economic historian with an interest in population analysis and demographic methods. Especially interested in natural disasters and disruptions to economic activity and changes in population dynamics, as well as fiscal and monetary policy with forecasting implications. Husband, father, Cubs fan.
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With the data released today, for all intents and purposes we are over the 10% threshold on the MA of positive tests over susceptible test encounters. The rate stands at 9.96689%. Recall I use a centered moving average so this is looking both forward and back and therefore it is going to be increasing for some time given the recent data.

This level is indicative of a widespread community-spread situation with the virus which is not good. There also appears to be momentum gathering here. As the level increases we are seeing the rate of increase go up as well (the line is getting steeper) and this is more concerning than the level in many ways.

Policy interventions are still important but are going to be that much more difficult to generate the type and quality of the outcome