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Constantin Gurdgiev



Articles by Constantin Gurdgiev

America’s Scariest Charts Updated 02Apr 2021: U.S. Employment Situation

April 4, 2021

Posted on 04 April 2021
Written by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

The scariest chart compares the Employment Index plots for each of the previous eleven recession-recovery cycles since World War II.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Despite some positive headline numbers on some labor market metrics, jobs creation in the U.S. is not progressing well-enough to claim any end in sight for the Covid19-induced recession. Current reading for jobs index, relative to pre-recession highs is woeful. So woeful, today’s state of U.S. markets ranks as the second worst jobs recession in modern history, so far, worse than the Great Recession. Good news is that in March, pace of recovery accelerated from a major slowdown

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America’s Scariest Charts Update 04February 2021

February 9, 2021

Posted on 08 February 2021
Written by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

It’s time for another update of America’s scariest charts, all dealing with the historic damage done to the US labor market by the pandemic recession. In many respects this is the worst labor market recession since World War II.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.1. Continued Unemployment Claims In absolute terms, official continued unemployment claims stood at 4,592,000 during the week of January 23, 2021, 193,000 down on week prior and 935,000 down on the month prior. The four weeks-average rate of decline in continued claims is at 120,000 per week, an improvement on 4-weeks average of 103,250 weekly rate of decline a week ago, but weaker

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Velocity Of Money And The Glaciers Of Complacency

November 17, 2020

Posted on 17 November 2020
Written by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

Despite massive money printing by the Fed in the years post-GFC and again since the start of the COVID19 pandemic, velocity of money in the U.S. is actually shrinking, and sharply so during the pandemic.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. Considering the data through 3Q 2020, there is little improvement across the board: You can barely notice 3Q 2020 uptick from the pandemic lows in all three measures, the M1, M2 and MZM. And here are differentials:Precautionary savings motives (blue line) remain extremely elevated, while investors’ willingness to trade assets (in a bull market, a sign of more active management of portfolios) stays

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America’s Scariest Charts – Updated 24October 2020

October 27, 2020

Posted on 27 October 2020
Written by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

The economic crisis accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic has nothing more serious than the massive impact on US employment. I have created a collection of graphics covering this which I call "America’s Scariest Charts". Here is a summary from multiple posts at True Economics.Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Let’s take a look at the weekly (higher frequency) data unemployment claims. First, initial unemployment claims, with data coverage through the week of October 17th:The chart above shows 1-month cumulative initial unemployment claims, smoothing some of weekly volatility in the series.Current reading stands at 3,194,750 which is above the

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America’s Scariest Charts – Updated 27 September 2020

September 27, 2020

Posted on 27 September 2020
Written by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in

The economic crisis accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic has nothing more serious than the massive impact on US employment. I have created a collection of graphics covering this which I call "America’s Scariest Charts".Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.Continued Unemployment ClaimsThe latest data is covering the period through September 12, 2020.On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, there were 13,355,586 Americans with continued unemployment claims in the week of September 12, 2020, an increase of 212,869 on the week prior, but 9,438,559 down on the COVID19 peak reached in the week of May 9, 2020. At the lowest point in pre-COVID expansion

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