Friday , January 18 2019
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The Great American Slump (update)

I detect some chatter out there concerning the recent "unexpected" rise in the U.S. labor force participation rate. The discussion is related mainly to the question of whether the labor market has fully recovered from the effects of the Great Recession. I suggested back in 2010 (here) that American recovery dynamic might be a prolonged one, at least, taking the Great Canadian Slump as a model. I updated that analysis here in 2016. In light of the recent discussion, I thought I'd see where we stand today.Here is EPOP (employment-to-population ratio) for Canada (beginning in 1990) and the United States (beginning in 2008).   The two series bear a striking resemblance 40 quarters (10 years) out. Here is what the picture looks like when we restrict attention to the prime-age (15-54)

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David Andolfatto
The views and opinions expressed by me in this blog are my own and should in no way be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, or to the Federal Reserve System.

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