How Much of US Federal Debt Is Held by Foreign/International Investors

As a share of debt held by the public (i.e., excluding intragovernmental holdings). Figure 1: US Federal debt held by foreign & international investors as share of Federal debt held by public. Source: FRED and author’s calculations. The recent decline in the ratio arises due to the large increase in total debt held by the public (held by the public includes Fed holdings).

U.S. jobs report: Amid robust employment gains in May policymakers need to consider the future direction of demand-driven employment growth across industries

The recovery in U.S. employment picked up some steam last month. According to the latest Employment Situation Summary by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy in May gained 559,000 jobs, compared to the unexpectedly low 278,000 jobs added in April. While still 3.3 percentage points below its pre-coronavirus recession level, the share of adults between the ages of 25 and 54 with a job—the prime-age...

Jonathan Levy’s Ages of American Capitalism: My Second Impression

I finally finished grading and had a chance to read a bit more of Levy’s Ages of American Capitalism. I finished the Age of Capital but still have ages of control and chaos to get through. These may take a while; the closer we get to now the less history interests me. In the meantime, I’ll provide my second impression on the book. See here for the first impression.   As a reminder, Levy is trying write a story of American economic history...

Misleading Baltimore Stats for Celebrating Lax on Crime

In 2020, the City of Baltimore stopped prosecuting "minor charges" such as drug crimes.  The headlines are that 2020 crime "went down a lot" from 2019.  Homicides fell by 13.Not mentioned is that, over a similar time frame (2020 Q1-Q3 vs 2019 Q1-Q3), "Opioid Intoxication Deaths" increased by 48 persons (at an annual rate).  That is an increase of 36 percent, compared to 21 percent for the rest of the state of...

Economics’ race (and other) problems

There’s been much discussion in recent days about Economics’ race problem. Some of what has come out is quite disturbing. I have not said much, but I have listened and thought. Here are a few reflections I want to add. It doesn’t surprise me that the field, as a whole, reflects the ingrained attitudes and practices of the society of which it is part. But there are some features of the discipline that magnify and aggravate the problem. First,...

MSA Wage Gaps In ND (Episode V)

Call me a glutton for punishment, or at least a glutton for calls and texts coming in when I am on the radio challenging, you know, the data. Wages in Grand Forks is a big deal. I hear it from people as I walk around my neighborhood. You can tell by the number of stories written about it. Being a big story does not make it an easy explanation though. Wages in Grand Forks lag the other metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in North Dakota...

How Much of US Federal Debt Is Held by Foreign/International Investors

As a share of debt held by the public (i.e., excluding intragovernmental holdings). Figure 1: US Federal debt held by foreign & international investors as share of Federal debt held by public. Source: FRED and author’s calculations. The recent decline in the ratio arises due to the large increase in total debt held by the public (held by the public includes Fed holdings).

Labor Force Participation Gaps Between the U.S. and Canada

Am hearing some talk about whether the U.S. labor market can fully recover to its pre-Covid19 levels. Is it possible that a sizeable number of workers with marginal attachment to the workforce decide to remain out of the labor force? For example, this crisis, unlike the one that preceded it, has been associated with large increases in personal wealth. Workers on the cusp of retiring may now choose to do so earlier? (This is just one of the...

Bitcoin as PAYGO Pension Plan. And Land.

Suppose the government starts a Pay As You GO (unfunded) pension plan. What the young pay into the plan today is what the old take out today. The first generation gets lucky; they get a pension paid out, but never put anything in.  And if the plan ever gets wound up, the last generation of old get unlucky; they paid in, but never get anything out. Bitcoin is the same. What the young pay in to buy Bitcoin today is what the old take out when...

Three talks (come along!), the psychology of magic, and more prediction challenges

Three talks I’m busy in the coming days! Do consider buying a ticket to my event at the Rotman school this Wednesday (10pm UK time, 5pm EST) – a copy of The Data Detective is included in the ticket price and with the excellent Heski Bar-Isaac steering the conversation I expect we’ll go deep. Come along! Alternatively, on Saturday 12 June I’m giving a talk to conclude the IEA’s “Think” conference. Registration details here. Or if you...

Taxation Tales and the Window Tax

H.L. Mencken once wrote: “Taxation . . . is eternally lively; it concerns nine-tenths of us more directly than either smallpox or golf, and has just as much drama in it; moreover, it has been mellowed and made gay by as many gaudy, preposterous theories.” Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod quote Mencken and then make his point in many vivid ways in their gallop through tax policy in their just-published book Rebellion, Rascals, and Revenue: Tax...

Edward Nelson on Milton Friedman

[unable to retrieve full-text content]While I’m only 275 pages into Ed Nelson’s big 2 volume set entitled “Milton Friedman & Economic Debate in the United States”, I can already say that it’s one of my favorite books on macroeconomics. One issue that has frequently puzzled me is how to interpret causality in the Phillips Curve relationship. I have always […]

Friday assorted links

1. Not sure I have been abused for any prediction more than this one, and yet it seems true: “Democratic primary voters have been turning away this year from the anti-elite furies that continue to roil Republican politics, repeatedly choosing more moderate candidates promising steady leadership over disrupters from the party’s left wing.”  Here is yet further evidence of ongoing moderation. 2. More on Ivermectin.  And very real progress on...

How should we think about talk of an impending US inflationary spiral?

In 2013 I was presenting at a Bank of England conference. The UK recovery had stalled for three years. I cannot remember the details, but I was probably arguing that the economy desperately needed fiscal stimulus, not more austerity. A very well known academic and ex central banker started talking about inflation and the dangers of expectations becoming 'unhinged'. In my response I came quite close to losing my cool. I wrote this post...

Can Integration Change Gender Attitudes?

Summary Can integration of men and women change gender attitudes even in a traditionally male-dominated environment? This research carried out a randomized experiment in the Norwegian military, to study the effects of mixed-gender training squads on male squad members. This casts some light on what social psychologists call the “contact hypothesis”, which predicts that exposure to...

A Global Tax Deal for the Rich, Not the Poor

Despite the recent G7 agreement on corporate taxation, global leadership requires going beyond national interests to ensure that all countries have sufficient resources to develop healthier post-pandemic economies. This will require addressing the developing world’s demands in a way that is not only historic, but also fair. NEW YORK – Historic, game-changing, revolutionary: such has been the...

Noahpinion has moved to a new website!

Well folks, it's been a fun 10-year run at this little website. I'm moving on to a new platform: Substack! Here's the new Noahpinion:https://noahpinion.substack.com/Thanks for reading, and hope to see you at the new site!

Bindingness and the ETS

The Commission's final report came out today. It has a series of recommendations that cannot do much to affect net emissions when they run up against the binding cap on net emissions in the Emissions Trading Scheme.So the Commission decides to claim that the cap is really non-binding. Concern was raised by several submitters that the NZ ETS has a 'neutralising effect' on emissions reductions achieved by other policies. They cited that in an...

Can Integration Change Gender Attitudes?

Summary Can integration of men and women change gender attitudes even in a traditionally male-dominated environment? This research carried out a randomized experiment in the Norwegian military, to study the effects of mixed-gender training squads on male squad members. This casts some light on what social psychologists call the “contact hypothesis”, which predicts that exposure to...

Christina Pazzanese on Michael Sandel

For tickets to Monday’s Faneuil Forum with Professor Michael Sandel, click here. Stories of learning, teaching, and turning points, in the Experience series. Michael Sandel joined the Government Department in 1980 to teach political theory largely on the strength of a dissertation that boldly critiqued the ideas of John Rawls, then a towering figure both at Harvard and in the field. Since then he has grown to be among the most influential...

“We don’t have a chance in hell …”, Canada’s poverty reduction strategy needs real voice

Source: https://twitter.com/ESDC_GC/status/1364596131590791171The Minister of Employment and Social Development in the Canadian federal government, Ahmed Hussen, recently tabled an annual report taking stock of the country’s poverty reduction strategy. The advisory council responsible for the reported dedicated it “to all those courageous people who shared their stories, successes and struggles with the Council in the hope that we would in...

32+ Years…

the reason behind the labor shortages, soaring wages

The graph above shows the labor force participation rate has fallen, two percentage points since the pandemic, decreasing the supply of labor.  A reduction in supply increases prices (wages increased at an 8.7% annual rate) and decreases quantity.  HT:  marginalrevolution.com

The Impact of the Pandemic and Lasting Lessons for Teaching Economics

Yesterday, I gave a keynote talk at the tenth American Economic Association Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education (CTREE). I have been teaching economics for 53 years. I love teaching economics. I love researching economics. And I love doing policy in economics. So it was a pleasure to talk about teaching economics, and the questions from other economic teachers and researchers in the audience were really good. Here are the...

Whither the Fed

I gave the UCSD economic roundtable lecture Friday June 11 on inflation and the future of the Fed. It summarizes quickly a number of themes from previous Grumpy writings, and if you enjoy videos you might find it fun. Youtube link in case the above embed does not work. I happened on the New York Fed website, ...

Paying for the right to be infected

Paying for the right to be infected August 14, 2020 in covid-19, economics, infection, Mechanism design Serious infectious diseases are a prime example of a public bad (non-exclusive and non-congestible). We limit them by restricting behavior and or getting individuals to internalize the externalities they generate. For example, one could mandate masks in public places. To be effective this requires monitoring and punishment....

The Covid19 death rate looks less bad in historical perspective

Tweet(Part II of “Statistics and the Pandemic”) May 30, 2021 — My preceding blogpost pointed out that excess mortality statistics show Covid-19 death rates to be much worse in most countries than are reported by official statistics.  In this sense, the pandemic is even worse than one thought. But the news all around us is already depressing.  A consideration of longer-term history allows a more encouraging perspective on mortality — provided...

The Bayesian Cult: Threatening Those Who Refuse To Fall Into Line

Posted on 09 June 2021 by Philip Pilkington Article of the Week from Fixing the EconomistsI thought it might be worthwhile to follow up my previous posts on probabilities with one in which I first of all clarify one or two points and second of all show why certain people are attracted to Bayesian statistics. I draw on a paper that Lars Syll (who else?) has drawn my attention to by the philosopher Clark Glymour. The following post will be an...

Another Tory shoots for crypto glory

You might remember that back in those carefree days of autumn 2018 — when we all still worked within spitting distance from other humans; when Boris Johnson was a backbench Tory MP and Dom Cummings just a glint in his eye — we initiated a series called “What’s the Tory crypto story?”. Why? Well, a number of Tory parliamentarians — Grant “Michael Green” Shapps, Baroness “cryptocurrency expert” Mone, and Eddie “a blockchain for Bloxwich” Hughes,...

US First Quarter GDP: Recovery or Just Another Rebound?

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The Worst Jobs Day Ever

Driven by the COVID-19 shutdown, April marked the greatest job loss in American history. The unemployment rate skyrocketed to 14.7 percent, and employers cut 20.5 million jobs. Those figures are heart-wrenching. But as awful as they are, they do not fully capture workers’ hardships. To be counted as unemployed, people must be available for work and actively seeking it. With schools closed, job opportunities withering, and social distancing the...

Life is full of tradeoffs, the case of federal renters assistance

Getting this aid to people is slow since it takes time to verify who is in need (to prevent fraud). So you can have more assistance or less fraud. We might not be able to get both. There has been fraud with unemployment. See Scott Peterson, thousands of California inmates carried out 'staggering' Covid fraud, officials say by Tim Stelloh of CBS News. See also How scammers siphoned $36B in fraudulent unemployment payments from US by Nick...

Testing the Mill Hypothesis

My intermediate macro book begins with a quotation from John Stuart Mill, which ends with this conclusion:"My advice to you is to study the great writers on Political Economy, and hold firmly by whatever in them you find true; and depend upon it that if you are not selfish or hardhearted already, Political Economy will not make you so."A recent study suggests that Mill was right.

The new tools of monetary policy

By Haowen Chen Since the 1980s, interest rates around the world have trended downward, reflecting lower inflation, demographic and technological forces that have increased desired global saving relative to desired investment, and other factors. Although low inflation and interest rates have many benefits, the new environment poses challenges for central banks, who have traditionally relied on cuts to short-term interest rates to stimulate...

Central Banking Stories to Watch in 2019

Happy New Year, everybody! 2018 has been a quiet year for my blog, but productive on other fronts, as I've kept busy with research and my family. But here are a few central bank-related stories I'm interested in following in the new year. 1. New Governor at Reserve Bank of IndiaFollowing the early exit of Governor Urjit Patel in December, Prime Minister Modi appointed the third central bank governor in just three years: Shaktikanta Das....

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The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power

As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...

In Memory of Bob Rossana

Robert “Bob” Rossana died back in February of this year. I was inadvertently left off of the university announcement email and did not hear about it until much later. Bob was my dissertation advisor. He meant a lot to me and so I want to share some thoughts. In graduate school, there were four macroeconomics courses. Two core classes and two field classes. Bob was instrumental in getting this four-course system started, as well as a “macro...

Who were the top taxpayers in 1923?

From page 71 of Daniel Marcin’s “The Revenue Act of 1924: Publicity, Tax Cuts, Response” div{float:left;margin-right:10px;} div.wpmrec2x div.u > div:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0px;} ]]> Advertisements

The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power

As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...

The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power

As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...