Leaders
Mark Thoma: Economist View
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Links
Trump’s Advisors Recognize That His China Tariff Strategy Calls for… What Might You Call It? A “Trans-Pacific Partnership”, Perhaps? - Equitable Growth Equilibrium Selection, Observability and Backward-stable Solutions - Brad DeLong On Equilibrium in Economic Theory - Uneasy Money Scam I Amn’t: Voters and the Tax Cut - Paul Krugman No Worker Left Behind - Laura Tyson & Lenny Mendonca Why Democracy Fails to Reduce Inequality -...
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Links for 04-10-18
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Links for 04-04-18
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Links for 04-02-18
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Links for 03-30-18
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Links for 03-28-18
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Links for 03-26-18
Paul Krugman
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The Blog Moves On
A message for regular readers of this blog: unless something big breaks later today, this will be my last day blogging AT THIS SITE. The Times is consolidating the process, so future blog-like entries will show up at my regular columnist page. This should broaden the audience, a bit, maybe, and certainly make it easier for the Times to feature relevant posts. It will also, for technical reasons, make my life simpler — you’d be surprised how...
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Leprechauns of Eastern Europe
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La Trahison des Clercs, Economics Edition
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Incidence and Welfare Effects of Corporate Tax Cuts (Extremely Wonkish)
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Choice and the Insurance Mandate
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Voodoo Too: The GOP Addiction to Financial Deregulation
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Schroedinger’s Tax Hike
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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Japan is in the details
Those who have already been here will want to skip over this post for something more informative—for example Noah Smith. But I thought I’d make a few comments about my first trip to Japan, which is 60% over. Consider these to be non-authoritative impressions. 1. Just say Noh: After arriving at 4am very jet-lagged, I stayed up all day and attended a performance of Noh theatre at the Yasukuni Shrine. (Yes, that Yasukuni Shrine.) Despite...
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Odds and ends
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What does it mean to control interest rates?
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Japan bleg
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The government is beginning to see the light
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China is cleaning up fast
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What should our public schools teach?
Noah Smith
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DeLong vs. Krugman on globalization
I'm going to do the inadvisable, and argue with Brad DeLong. Hopefully this will turn out OK, since it's in response to Brad doing the inadvisable and arguing with Paul Krugman (thus breaking at least two of his own rules).The topic is globalization. Krugman has a new essay in which he lays out what seems to be a rapidly crystallizing conventional wisdom on the recent history of globalization. Some excerpts: [D]uring the 1990s a number of...
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Sheepskin effects – signals without signaling
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The “cackling cartoon villain” defense of DSGE
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Defending Thaler from the guerrilla resistance
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Handwaving on health care
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Speech on campus: A reply to Brad DeLong
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What we didn’t get
Project Syndicate
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Germany’s Populist Temptation
After months of difficult coalition talks, German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally managed to establish a new government in early March, only to find that she has a spoiler in her own camp. To shore up his right flank, Christian Social Union leader Horst Seehofer has launched a cold war against Merkel and the German establishment. BERLIN – Because populism is not an ideology in itself, it can easily appeal to mainstream...
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The West’s Crisis of Confidence
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No Blank Check for Development Banks
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Missile Strikes Are Not a Syria Strategy
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The “Next Eleven” and the World Economy
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Should We Really Care About Inequality?
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A Trade Tutorial for Trump
Cyril Morong: Dangerous Economist
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Why 2017 Was the Best Year in Human History
By Nicholas Kristof of The NY Times. Excerpts: "2017 was probably the very best year in the long history of humanity. A smaller share of the world’s people were hungry, impoverished or illiterate than at any time before. A smaller proportion of children died than ever before. The proportion disfigured by leprosy, blinded by diseases like trachoma or suffering from other ailments also fell.""Every day, the number of people...
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The Deficit Trials 2017 A. D.
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Herfindahl-Hirschman at the Movies
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Ozzy Osbourne Makes The Economics News
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Is There Economic And Political Meaning In “The Wizard of Oz?”
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Four Decades Of Disinflation
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San Antonio has highest credit card debt burden in US
Miles Corak: Economics for public policy
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Thinking about minimum wages, and thinking about them like an economist
There is a movement afoot, and there is an election in the offing. Always a great dance to watch, no matter what the issue. The latest show is taking place in Ontario, where “$15 & Fairness” is the rallying call for raising the minimum wage, and has found a willing partner in the province’s Premier who will go to the polls in the spring, but in the meantime has legislated significant increases in the minimum price for an hour of work. The...
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The Caledon Institute of Social Policy is Canadian social policy
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The Canada Child Benefit is an important innovation in cash benefits to families with children
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Poor children are twice as likely to grow up to be poor adults in some Canadian communities than in others
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I have a new job, and if you want to know more read this post
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Tony Atkinson has died
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I’ve been blogging for five years, and here are my 10 favourite posts
Dani Rodrik’s weblog
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Site Maintenance
Site Maintenance Sorry for the inconvenience but we’re performing some maintenance at the moment. We’ll be back online shortly! You've requested a page on a website (rodrik.typepad.com) that is on the Cloudflare network. Cloudflare is currently unable to resolve your requested domain (rodrik.typepad.com). Ray ID: 40cb705d97079750 Timestamp: 2018-04-17 02:25:03 UTC Your IP address: 88.99.241.248 Requested URL:...
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More on distinguishing ideas and interests — an exchange with Peter Hall
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Has Global Finance Reformed Itself More Than It Appears?
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Telling interests and ideas apart
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My Twitter account has been hacked
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The Economics Debate, again and again
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Taking a Crack at Neoliberalism
Global Economic Intersection
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On Open-Mindedness, Open-Systems And Open Economics Education
Posted on 18 April 2018 by Philip Pilkington I recently came across a fascinating paper by Victoria Chick entitled 'The Future is Open: On Open-System Theorising in Economics'. I want to focus on a specific aspect of the paper; namely, Chick's discussion on the psychological possibilities of actually teaching open systems. But first I suppose I should make clear what the term 'open systems' means.Please share this article - Go to very top of...
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How To Get Your Tax Weekend Back
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Cross Metropolitan Migration In The U.S.
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Economists: An Anthropological View
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Misconceptions About Trade Deficits
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Assumptions Equal Problems
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Taxation, Government Spending, The National Debt And MMT
Casey Mulligan: Supply and Demand
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Monopolies are unhealthy, but high taxes make the disease worse
Copyright, TheHill.comTaxes are necessary to fund worthy government activities, but taxes come with side effects. The side effects can be especially harmful in an economy where businesses enjoy monopoly power.People and businesses individually attempt to reduce their tax burden by doing less of the activities taxed at high rates and more of the activities tax at low rates or by doing activities that aren't taxed at all.If the primary...
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NYTimes Packs Five Ungrounded Economic Opinions in Two Sentences
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Corporate-income Tax Incidence with Imperfect Competition
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Robots: Leibniz’ dream is coming true in economics
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Honey, I Shrank the Economic Pie
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Your job cannot be automated? Then you need to worry!
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Some Immediate Benefits of the Corporate Tax Cut
Bradley A. Hansen’s Blog
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Diane Lindstrom (1944-2018)
At the risk of making this seem like a blog of economic history obituaries, I think it is necessary to note the passing of Diane Lindstrom. Here is the obituary from the University of Wisconsin. Along with Robert Gallman, Lawrence Herbst, Paul Uselding and others Lindstrom challenged the version of American antebellum growth presented in Doug North’s Economic Growth of the United States, 1790-1860. In Economic Growth Doug argued that growth...
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John Murray
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The Annunciation by Henry Ossawa Tanner
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Quick Take on The Mystery of the Kibbutz
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What Happened to The Standard of Living During the Gilded Age?
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Three Revolutions in Economic History
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Follow up on Capitalism and History
Managerial Econ
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Wither the Price Tag?
Planet Money ran a story about the price tag a few years ago. The premise of the story is that the price tag emerged in just the 1870s and may be on its way out. So how did you know what to pay previously? You know, for almost all of the history of human commerce - for thousands of years - you walk into a store, and you point to something. And you say, how much does that cost? The guy at the store is going to say, how much you got? You know,...
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18th Century Pretzel Standardization
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China’s yuan up 11% since President Trump took office
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Scaling up Auto Dealership Size
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DON’T PANIC: a guide to claims of increasing concentration
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Hope for would-be home owners and renters from California!
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Bundled Ride Shares
Donald Marron
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Three Things You Should Know about the Buyback Furor
Record stock buybacks—driven in part by the corporate tax changes in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)—have sparked a media and political furor. Unfortunately, they’ve also created a great deal of confusion. To help elevate the debate, here are three things you should know. 1. Repatriated overseas profits are the main way TCJA is boosting buybacks By slashing corporate taxes, TCJA will boost after-tax profits and cash flow. Companies will use...
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Talking Money, Inflation, Fiat, & Bitcoin
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How Should Tax Reform Treat Employee Stock and Options?
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Eight Thoughts on Business Tax Reform
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The 3-2-1 on Economic Growth: Hope for 3, Plan for 2, Pray it isn’t 1
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Outside Research Organizations Can’t Replace CBO’s Budget Team
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Can Trump Make Mexico Pay for the Wall?
David Flynn: Barter is Evil
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Smooth Alternatives: Grand Forks Sales Taxes
Recent posts clearly place me in the camp of “critic” for the sales tax data from Grand Forks. Criticism can be important because it encourages us to make things better, to improve upon the inadequate. With that in mind I offer up some alternatives that might be better than the current system. If we need to remove some of the “ups-and-downs” of the data, for whatever reason, let’s try to keep the some of the features of the data that keep us...
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Grand Forks Sales Tax: Accuracy v. Stability
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Male-Female Earnings Ratio in ND, A follow up
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Gender Wage Parity in North Dakota
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Grand Forks Sales Tax, March 2018
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The Pension Problem, yet again
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China Sanctions: Princess Bride Edition
Josh Hendrickson: Everyday Economist
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In Memory of John Murray
This post is a bit different than normal. Most of my posts are about the minutiae of economic theory or controversies. Today’s post is personal. All of us in academia have a number of important people who have helped us in our intellectual journey and career. I have been fortunate enough to have a number of such people in my short career. One of these people was John Murray. I first met John as an undergraduate. At the time I was a history...
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The Phillips Curve and Identification Problems
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A Theory of Tariffs as a Method of Promoting Long-Run Free Trade
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On Prediction
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Allan Meltzer
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The Quantity Theory of Money: Lessons from Sweden’s Age of Freedom
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The Phillips Curve, Again
Leisure of the Theory Class
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Arms and Projects
Arms and Projects February 16, 2018 in Operations research, MECS-560-2 | Tags: dynamic programming, multiarmed bandit This post is only gonna make sense if you read my last-week post on Gittins Index So, why does Gittins’ theorem hold for arms and not for projects ? First, an example. Consider the following two projects A and B. The first period you work on A you have to choose an action Up or Down. Future rewards from working on...
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Weber’s proof of Gittins Index Theorem
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Samuelson on Linear Programming
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Entrepreneurship
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Miserly Millennium Prizes
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Medawar’s Test
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Russian Meddling, Fake News & Lemons
Timothy Taylor: Conversable Economist
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The Clean Cooking Problem: 2.3 Million Deaths Annually
"Today around 2.8 billion people – 38% of the global population and almost 50% of the population in developing countries – lack access to clean cooking. Most of them cook their daily meals using solid biomass in traditional stoves. In 25 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, more than 90% of households rely on wood, charcoal and waste for cooking. Collecting this fuel requires hundreds of billions of hours each year, disproportionately...
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A Classic Question: Does Government Can Empower or Stifle?
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Global Debt Hits All-Time High
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Some Economics for Tax Filing Day
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The Share of Itemizers and the Politics of Tax Reform
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When Britain Repealed Its Income Tax in 1816
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The Global Rise of Internet Access and Digital Government
Econbrowser
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Annual, Annualized, q4/q4 Growth Rates: A Graphical Depiction
Why do reported growth rates differ for the same variable? Refer to the last three years of GDP data to see… Figure 1: Quarterly GDP, SAAR, FRED series GDPC1 (dark red line), annual, FRED series GDPCA (green bars), in billions of Chained 2009$. 2017 q4/q4 growth rate (red arrow); annual 2017 y/y growth rate (green arrow); 2017Q4 q/q SAAR growth rate (blue arrow); 2016Q1 y/y SAAR growth rate (black arrow). Source: BEA, 2017Q4 3rd release via...
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Net vs. Gross Investment
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Twin Deficits Redux? CBO Predicts
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Trump v. Treasury
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Anti-ρ-ism in American Policy Discourse
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Guest Contribution: “Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?”
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I Bet (Figuratively) Tonight Is the Night: Rosenstein Edition
Tim Harford: Undercover Economist
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The past, present and future of banking
The past, present and future of banking (Business seals; Rishengchang Museum.) Not long ago I was fortunate enough to visit the Rishengchang in Pingyao – which I tentatively understand to be the oldest “draft” bank in China, allowing merchants to send money across the nation. Pingyao is well worth a visit, if ever happen to be in that part of China. It put me to thinking about some fine histories of money and banking I’ve read in the...
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Stephen Hawking’s restless scientific curiosity pulled us all in
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In praise of Factfulness
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My favourite indy projects
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A clever nudge to improve diversity
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Five of the best introductions to economics
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How referendums break democracies
Owen Zidar
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Who were the top taxpayers in 1923?
From page 71 of Daniel Marcin’s “The Revenue Act of 1924: Publicity, Tax Cuts, Response” div{float:left;margin-right:10px;} div.wpmrec2x div.u > div:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0px;} ]]> Advertisements
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Trump won in counties that lost jobs to China and Mexico
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The Effect of Pension Income on Elderly Earnings: Evidence from Social Security and Full Population Data
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Why Retire When You Can Work? Hours are way up for elderly workers
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Zip-code Economics
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Financial firms make large share of pass-through income
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Pass-through income and the top 1%
Microeconomic Insights
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China’s hidden shipbuilding subsidies and their impact on its industrial dominance
Our news feeds have recently been invaded by discussions of a forgotten issue: protectionism. Strategic trade, industrial policy and even trade wars are once again at the forefront of our minds. Regardless of why these measures are adopted, it is essential to understand their consequences for world trade and welfare. In recent work, I focus on China, where government guidance has allegedly turned its industries into world leaders and where the...
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Absolute poverty: when necessity displaces desire
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Marital choices and widening economic inequality
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Infrastructure investment and regulation: evidence from the US electricity distribution sector
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How the MillerCoors joint venture changed competition in U.S. brewing
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The surprising power of tax stimulus to the housing market
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Gender gaps among high-skilled professionals: the case of US lawyers
Carola Binder: Quantitative Ease
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Mortgage-Backed Securities Ratings and Losses Maybe Not So Bad
An NBER working paper released today conducts a "post mortem" on the role of non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the 2008 financial crisis. The authors, Juan Ospina and Harald Uhlig, suggest that some of the standard narratives about the financial crisis were "created in the heat of the moment" and merit re-examination a decade later. "One such standard narrative has it that the financial meltdown of 2008...
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D is for Devastating: A Statistical Error and the Vitamin D Saga
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To Eradicate or to Manage?
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Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Holding Steady
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Is Taylor a Hawk or Not?
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Cowen and Sumner on Voters’ Hatred of Inflation
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Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy
Economonitor
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Current Account Deficits and Safe Assets
The International Monetary Fund has issued its External Sector Report for 2017, and among its key findings: “Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016…” The U,S. continues to record the largest deficit, $451.7 billion, which is equal in value to 2.4% of U.S. GDP. The continuing deficits contribute to the increase in the ...
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Why Lebanon’s New Government Needs a New Economic Model
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A New Banking Crisis?
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John Maynard Keynes and Effective Macroeconomic Policy
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Can Uganda Step Up to New Economic Challenges?
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New Pragmatism: Economics and Economic Policy for the Future
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Transformative Changes in World Energy Production and Trade
Offsetting Behaviour
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Precious arable land
I just don't get the fixation with making sure that nobody builds a house on agricultural land. The government plans to make it harder for councils to approve new homes and lifestyle blocks on productive land near urban areas.A report out today, called Our Land 2018, shows New Zealand's urban sprawl is eating up some of the country's most versatile land.It highlights that between 1990 and 2008, 29 percent of new urban areas were built on some...
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Choice of baseline matters
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US CTPP accession?
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Is Vaping Legal?
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The Heckman Curve is flat
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Please don’t run active shooter drills in NZ schools
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Much Ado About Nothing – Partnership Schools edition
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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Subliminal education?
The idea of inserting “social-psychological interventions” into learning software is gaining steam, raising both hopes and fears about the ways the ed-tech industry might seek to capitalize on recent research into the impact of students’ mindsets on their learning. …Publishing giant Pearson recently conducted an experiment involving more than 9,000 unwitting students at 165 different U.S. colleges and universities. Without seeking prior...
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How common is child marriage in the United States?
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Spain Italy fact of the day
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Africa fact of the day
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Thursday assorted links
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Meet me in Mongolia? (North Korea fact of the day)
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How do people respond to shared trauma?
Jared Bernstein: On the economy
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Employment Breakeven Levels: They’re higher than most of us thought
Recent writings underscore an important hole in economists’ knowledge base: we know neither the natural rate of unemployment nor the potential level of GDP. I mean, we’ve got estimates for days, but an honest confidence interval around them renders them useless as policy guidelines. As Alan Blinder recently put it: “For [the natural rate] to be useful you have to have at least a little confidence you know the number. You don’t need to know it...
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Three pieces on why work requirements won’t work
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Real wages for mid-wage workers actually haven’t grown much over the past couple of years.
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Some lynx: Unions, CBO’s new baseline, the Bernstein Rule…
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March jobs: Topline miss but solid trend, plus a deeper dive into the current wage story
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Enough already with GDP growth…
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Musical interlude: Steve Winwood can’t find his way home.
Simon Wren-Lewis
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Did macroeconomics give up on explaining recent economic history?
The debate that continues about whether a Phillips curve still exists partly reflects the situation in various countries where unemployment has fallen to levels that had previously led to rising inflation but this time wage inflation seems pretty static. In all probability this reflects two things: the existence of hidden unemployment, and that the NAIRU has fallen. See Bell and Blanchflower on both for the UK. The idea that the NAIRU can move...
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How Brexit threatens pluralist democracy in the UK
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Talking to the Establishment
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Ian Dunt vs Owen Jones: a comment on a brief debate
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The complete failure of the Brexit project
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How do you access unbiased expertise: follow the money?
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Brexit and Corbyn: how our media fails the people
Free Exchange Economist
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How to interpret a market plunge
FOR much of the past two years, market watchers have had little to write about, apart from the passing of one stock-index milestone after another. The events of the past week, however, have shaken the financial world awake. A recent, upward zag in bond yields seemed to signal the arrival of a new theme in market movements. Stock prices confirmed it, and then some. Over the past week, American stocks have dropped about 7%, punctuated by a...
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Republicans grouse about tax models they once supported
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Why scan-reading artificial intelligence is bad news for radiologists
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Richard Thaler’s work demonstrates why economics is hard
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The Nobel in economics rewards a pioneer of “nudges”
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Bitcoin is fiat money, too
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The case against shrinking the Fed’s balance-sheet
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
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Natural Resources, Living Standards and Inequality
Kevin Milligan had an op-ed in the Globe and Mail a few days ago drawing the link between natural resource development, middle class incomes and inequality. The point essentially was: “Without income derived from the resource boom, Canadian inequality and the well-being of the Canadian middle class would be much worse than we’ve experienced.” The point was being made with reference to the current pipeline debate and the consequences of...
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In the war between generations, will universities get caught in the cross-fire?
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Site Maintenance
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“Trickle Down”, “Magic Dirt”, memes and deep parameters
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The evolving gender gap in student satisfaction
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Do students choosing liberal arts degrees regret it?
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The National Graduates Survey, student satisfaction, and the politics of statistics
Miles Kimball
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Christie Aschwanden on Buying Doubt
Illustrations by Chris Gash Science is being turned against itself. For decades, its twin ideals of transparency and rigor have been weaponized by those who disagree with results produced by the scientific method. Under the Trump administration, that fight has ramped up again. In a move ostensibly meant to reduce conflicts of interest, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt has removed a number of scientists from...
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Alexander Trentin Interviews Miles Kimball on Next Generation Monetary Policy
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Magic Bullets vs. Multifaceted Interventions for Economic Stimulus, Economic Development and Weight Loss
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Tristan Hanson and Eric Lonergan: What Would a UK Sovereign Wealth Fund Look Like?
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John Sargeant: Inside the Jehovah’s Witnesses
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Conor Friedersdorf: Ideology Should Not Be Trusted to Decide What is Culturally Offensive
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Paul Krugman on Why Donald Trump’s Trade Threats are Incoherent
FT Alphaville
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Further Reading
Elsewhere on Friday, -- Reading the fiduciary rule-- Cash is a cure...-- ...but a bitter pill to swallow-- Palantir knows everything-- Global income distribution-- Homeopathy and poor prescribing practices-- Ah, you do realise they're a donor-- After it rains men, the flood-- Fresh towels, a breakfast buffet, and Mossad-- What a lovely surprise-- Happy Cannabis day-- Farewell, ye scribbly scrawl-- Aged fake news...
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These hedge fund numbers can’t be right
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Now NASDAQ gets in a tangle
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We ran away with your bitcoins!! LOL, JK
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Shire rejects £42.4bn takeover bid from Takeda
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Deutsche Bank, HNA, and the GAR chase
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Markets Live: Thursday, 19th April, 2018
Greg Mankiw
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Digital Textbooks
This podcast (from last summer, but new to me) offers a good discussion of the benefits of digital textbooks.
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A T-shirt for the Times
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What I’ve Been Watching
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President Trump unites the country
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Summer Camp at Hoover
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The Case for Free Trade
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Still Number One
John Cochrane’s blog
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Q is better than you think
This lovely graph comes from "Learning and the Improving Relationship Between Investment and q" by Daniel Andrei, William Mann, and Nathalie Moyen. The careful investment and q measurement make it much better than similar figures I've made for example Figure 4 here. Their paper explores the puzzle, just why did q theory work worse before ...
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Buybacks redux
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Fiscal theory of monetary policy
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Intellectual property
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Why not taxes?
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Unraveling
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Buybacks full oped
Peterson Institute
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Regulating Digital Currencies: A Welcome First Step
Digital currencies—tradable digital assets stored on distributed ledgers—have finally caught the high-level attention of international financial policymakers. For the first time, finance ministers and central bank governors of the G-20 have called for coordinated action on digital or cryptocurrencies like bitcoin in their March 2018 communique. The communique states that "crypto-assets...raise issues with respect to consumer and investor...
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The US Employment Rate Has Returned to Its Pre-Recession Level Adjusted for Aging
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New Governments in Germany and Italy: Fears of Rampant Populism May Be Exaggerated
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EU Member States Continue to Dictate Brexit
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Should We Expect a Rebound in TFP Growth? Insights from the 1930s
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A Visionary Leader: PIIE Mourns the Passing of its Founding Chairman
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Breaking the Stalemate on European Deposit Insurance
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
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Temporary price-level targeting: An alternative framework for monetary policy
By Ben S. BernankeLow nominal interest rates, low inflation, and slow economic growth pose challenges to central bankers. In particular, with estimates of the long-run equilibrium level of the real interest rate quite low, the next recession may occur at a time when the Fed has little room to cut short-term rates. As I have written previously and recent research has explored, problems associated with the zero-lower bound (ZLB) on interest...
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When growth is not enough
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Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
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How big a problem is the zero lower bound on interest rates?
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Why Dodd-Frank’s orderly liquidation authority should be preserved
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Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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Inflation and Unemployment (Part 2)
In my previous post (Inflation and Unemployment), I reviewed what I thought was a fair characterization of the way the Federal Reserve Board staff organize their thinking about inflation and unemployment, as well as how this view of the world was at least partly responsible for the "hawkish" overtone of current Fed policy. I also suggested that the inflation and unemployment dynamic might be better understood through the lens of an...
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Inflation and unemployment
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What anchors inflation?
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The recession of 2012-13 and the taper tantrum
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U.S. GDP Expenditure Components
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Fiscal theories of the price-level
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Blockchain: what it is, what it does, and why you probably don’t need one
Macro and Other Market Musings
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Why Yes, the FOMC Would Like Some Inflation Overshoot Now
The Fed claims it has a symmetric two percent inflation target. From its 2017 and 2018 Statements on Longer Run Goals and Monetary Policy, the FOMC states: The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent... is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. The Committee would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below this objective. Communicating this...
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Macro Musing Hits the 100th Episode Mark
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Assorted Macro Musings
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Paul Krugman on Temporary vs Permanent Monetary Injections
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Fed Chair Jay Powell on Monetary Policy Rules
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Assorted Macro Musings
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Summer Program on Monetary Policy for Students
John B. Taylor
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Still Crazy After All These Years—And What About the Next 50
Yesterday I was talking to a friend in my office about the great benefit to students from writing undergraduate honors theses in their senior year. I have long advised students to do so, perhaps because of the rewarding experience I had years ago. It got me thinking, so I pulled my undergraduate thesis off the shelf, and I noted that it was dated April 5, 1968–submitted exactly 50 years ago to the day. The thesis was all about policy rules,...
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Favorite Economics April Fools Day Jokes on Twitter
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Monetary Policy Getting Back on Track
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A Better Way to End Big Bank Bailouts
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Application Deadline Approaching for Free Public Policy Program
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Unique Cooperative Research Effort
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The Fed’s Inflation Target and Policy Rules
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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Moving the Overton Window: Let the Debate Continue
The NIESR Rebuilding Macroeconomics project is stirring a great deal of controversy. And that’s a good thing. I am part of the management team. But I can only speak for myself here. In my opinion, we should be generating dialogue between heterodox non-mainstream groups and conventional macroeconomists. Mainstream economists, and heterodox economists alike, should each stop being ...
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Standing on the Shoulders of Giants
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Large Scale Econometric Models: Do they Have a Future?
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What Does it Mean to Have Rational Expectations?
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The Household Fallacy
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Ergodicity
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Confidence and Crashes
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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Trump’s Steel Tariffs
March 26, 2018 — Caijing Magazine asked me the following questions about US steel tariffs on 3/14. Do you see trade wars coming or they are already here? Will it be easy for the US to win trade wars as President Trump said? Answer: I see trade wars lurking around the corner. They are not yet here for sure. But recent developments are very worrying. Of course it will not be easy for the US to win a trade war. This is one of the most foolish...
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Can Technology Hurt Productivity?
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“Trump Tariffs Will Do Harm, Experts Say”
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Larry Summers’ Explanation for $ Decline
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Bogle, Bubbles & the February Market Correction
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The February Stock Market Correction
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The Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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The “Let’s Be Agnostic About Race Science” Clowns Are In My Twitter Timeline Again: Delong Morning Coffee Podcast
Do your arithmetic, Sheeple! 1500 generations since radiation from the horn of Africa is really very little indeed... The “Let’s Be Agnostic About Race Science” Clowns Are In My Twitter Timeline Again Thx to Wavelength and the very interesting micro.blog http://help.micro.blog/2018/microcasting/ http://delong.micro.blog/2018/04/15/the-lets-be.html Text:...
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Our Press Corps Appears to Annoy FRBM Head: Neel Kashkari: “The extreme emotions around the labor market
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Out of the Frying Pan Into the Fire: Government as the Problem in the 1970s and 1980s: Martin Feldstein (1979): Introduction to The American Economy in Transition
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Should-Read: Alessandro Nicita, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Peri da Silva: A trade war will increase average tariffs by 32 percentage points
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Estimating the marginal propensity to consume using the distributions of income, consumption, and wealth
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Trump’s Advisors Recognize That His China Tariff Strategy Calls for… What Might You Call It? A “Trans-Pacific Partnership”, Perhaps?
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The Tech Boom and the Fate of Democracy: Ars Technica Live: Definitely Not My Morning Coffee
Telegraph Blog
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Opinion
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Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
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David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
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Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
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The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
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The Unionist way forward
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Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire
