Leaders
Mark Thoma: Economist View
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Links for 05-22-17
US healthcare inefficiency: Evidence from prescription drugs - VoxEU Belts, Roads, and Strategic Trade Policy - Paul Krugman Is there a new capitalism? - Understanding Society Hayek and Intertemporal Equilibrium - Uneasy Money Precaution, mercantilism, and the real exchange rate - VoxEU Reconstruction and conflict: Losing hearts and minds - VoxWU Mainstreaming behavioural economics - VoxEU Assessing the value of preferential market...
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Links for 05-20-17
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Paul Krugman: What’s the Matter With Republicans?
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Links for 05-19-17
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Is ”Neo-Imperialism” the Only Path to Development?
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How Tales of ‘Flippers’ Led to a Housing Bubble
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Inflation Isn’t Cooperating With the Fed
Paul Krugman
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Belts, Roads, and Strategic Trade Policy
Look, I’m as obsessed with the Trump disaster as anyone else. But I’m trying to think about other things. And there does appear to be some big stuff happening, or potentially happening, on the global trade front, via China’s “belts and roads” transportation initiative. This is obviously an attempt to expand China’s political influence, and help find markets for Chinese exports. The magnitude of the effects is going to take some work to...
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Calling Literatures From The Vasty Deep
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Nattering Nabobs of NAFTA
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Trumpistan
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In Praise Of Nursing
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The French, Ourselves
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Europe Has Problems, But Le Pen Is Not The Answer
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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When an open minded reporter receives new information
Back in February, Matthew Continetti wrote an article complaining that the Washington establishment (both parties) was attempting to thwart the populist change that Trump was trying to bring to Washington. Here is the conclusion: So unlikely did the election of Donald Trump seem to Washington and its denizens that the reality of it still has not sunk in. All of the city’s worst traits—the self-regard, the group think, the obsessions with...
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Where are the Trump supporters?
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Somebody help me with this
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Ross Douthat on Trump
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Rising NGDP in Japan equals jobs, jobs, and more jobs
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Reality sucks
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McMaster “defends” Trump
Noah Smith
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The NIMBY challenge
The other day I wrote a Bloomberg View post about how California is waking up to the problem of NIMBYism - development restrictions that limit economic activity and make cities less affordable. Ground Zero for this struggle is the Bay Area, San Francisco in particular. The pro-development activists known as the YIMBYs have been at the forefront of the fight. Economists have also been weighing in. Enrico Moretti & Chang-Tai Hsieh and Andrii...
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Vast literatures as mud moats
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Actually good Silicon Valley critiques?
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How should theory and evidence relate to each other?
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The siren song of homogeneity
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Why the 101 model doesn’t work for labor markets
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Ricardo Reis defends macro
Project Syndicate
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Stay the Course With Rouhani
LONDON – Hassan Rouhani has won re-election as Iran’s president in a landslide, meaning that it is he who will be dealing with an antagonistic US President Donald Trump. What will their relationship mean for the 2015 international agreement that has, for now, frozen Iran’s nuclear ambitions? The Iranian nuclear deal was the culmination of a decades-long pas de deux between the United States and post-revolutionary Iran – a push and pull, in...
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Changing the Narrative About Haiti
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Trump’s Loose Lips and America’s Intelligence Relationships
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Inside the North Korea Maze
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Can J-nomics Save South Korea’s Economy?
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Immunization Independence
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The White House Crack-Up
Dani Rodrik’s weblog
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Why Did So Many Cheer Turkey’s Democracy While It Was Dying?
Claire Berlinski’s excellent account of the Western (and domestic) observers who cheered on as Turkey was sliding into authoritarianism reminds me of a point I long wanted to make. There was in Erdogan’s early years some reason to be confused as to what was going on. Was he a Muslim democrat who was essentially the Turkish equivalent of a European Christian Democrat? Or was he an authoritarian at heart who would resort to repression as soon as...
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Prudential regulation, capital controls, and second-best
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Trade, redistribution, and social dumping
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Dismal thoughts about the Turkish referendum
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Ariel Rubinstein on Economics Rules
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A Foreword to Kari Polanyi Levitt
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Thinking straight about fair trade
Global Economic Intersection
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What Is Keeping the Wine Industry So Prosperous?
By Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Times are good in the wine industry. Consumption is growing and French vineyards are selling for millions as are vineyards in Napa. Below, I discuss the reasons things are so good and the few dark clouds on the horizon. In sum, things are good because of vineyard promotions, consumer ignorance and vanity, wine ratings, and good salesmanship. Clouds on the horizon include growing consumer...
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Marginalist Microeconomics: The Path to Totalitarian Tyranny
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How to Drink from a Firehose
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Angst in America, Part 7: The Angst of the Millennial Generation
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Making Sense of the Sterling Depreciation of 2007-2008
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The US Has Been Running a Huge Trade Deficit for Years: How Can This Happen Without the Dollar Weakening?
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The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility since 1940
Econbrowser
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Guest Contribution: “The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Revisiting the Case Using External Instruments”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Maurizio Michael Habib, Elitza Mileva and Livio Stracca. The views expressed belong to the authors and are not necessarily shared by the institutions to which the authors are affiliated. Does depreciation spur growth? The answer really depends on whom you ask this question. Whereas laymen and politicians are often convinced that depreciation does spur growth, economists are...
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Is the Trump Dollar Rally Over?
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Pondering Economic Policy Implementation over the Next Four Years
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“Exchange Rate Models for a New Era: Major and Emerging Market Currencies”
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FinCEN to Share Information with Senate Intelligence Committee
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EconoFact: “Import Limits on Steel and Aluminum: Protecting National Security or Protectionism?”
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Stock Prices around October 20, 1973 (The Saturday Night Massacre)
Tim Harford: Undercover Economist
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Why prize-winners are heading for a fall
Why prize-winners are heading for a fall With hindsight, the timing was awkward. PRWeek had barely engraved Oscar Munoz’s name on the trophy before the chief executive of United Airlines and Communicator of the Year 2017 was engulfed in a spectacular public relations crisis. The airline had summoned the police to throw David Dao out of the seat he had paid for; the police broke his nose and knocked out two teeth; and Mr Munoz’s first...
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Life is getting ever more volatile – or is it?
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Undercover Monday 2
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Why we should be grateful to immigrants
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Undercover Monday 1
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Marginal gains matter but gamechangers transform
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Undercover Friday 9
Economonitor
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Why Is Gazprom’s Output on the Decline?
Photo: Ricardo Cabral The monopoly is forced to adjust supplies against falling demand on the Russian and European markets. In the past year, Gazprom has set a new anti-record for gas production. Based on the results for the past 12 months, its production volume is set to 409.4 billion cubic metres in the wake of the company’s updated projections. Earlier this year, the company had anticipated that production would reach 417.2 billion cubic...
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Trump Tariffs Threaten to Undermine World Trade in 2017
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The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017
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The 2015 Globie: “Global Inequality”
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Has the Embargo Damaged Farmers in Europe?
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Why Are Foreign Nations Dumping US Treasuries
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Seeing Past US Hegemony: A Liberal Global Trading System Without the United States
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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The Trump administration, lookism, and the Saudis
I’ve been guilty of this too, and I apologize. It strikes me that it has become politically acceptable among some of the high status people in my Twitter feed to make fun — if only implicitly — of the ugly, idiosyncratic, puzzled, sweaty, or otherwise mockable images sometimes presented by members of the Trump administration. I’ve also seen a tendency to use images to play on some of the ruling Saudis as fitting stereotypes of sinister or...
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Uber sentences to ponder
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Sunday assorted links
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Migration sentences to ponder
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Is non-supervisory wage growth slowing?
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What is the strongest argument for the existence of God?
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The new Hsieh and Moretti paper on land use restrictions and economic growth
Jared Bernstein: On the economy
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Jump on the productivity merry-go-round!
That’s the new game all the nerds are playing. You just write down all the reasons why people say productivity isn’t growing as fast as it was 15 years ago, and you ask noted productivity expert John Fernald: “Whussup with that?” That’s what Ben and I do in the latest episode of the On the Economy podcast, which you can listen to on Soundcloud, iTunes, Stitchr, Google Play, and TuneIn. Of course, while podcasts are fun and convenient, they...
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Potential growth and phony budgeting
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Housing, justice, jobs, and the flat Phillips Curve: Racial discrimination and a possible role for the Fed
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Reflections on Trump et al’s weirder than weird economics interview
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Flat Phills, all around
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April jobs report: Have we reached full employment??!!
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My jobs analysis slightly delayed today
Simon Wren-Lewis
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Conservative Contradictions: the limits on Red Tories
There has been much talkof Re-leavers: those who voted to Remain but are now voting for Theresa May to get the best Brexit deal. I had talked about something similar long before the term arose (see hereand the previous linked post), so I do not think this is just an artifact of particular poll questions. But I’m also sure that this is not the only reason many Remainers will vote Conservative. Some, as Ian Dunt suggests, just believe that...
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But do the numbers add up?
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The media’s unbalanced referendum
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Should we demand ‘fully costed’ programmes?
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Why are the UK and US more vulnerable to right wing populism?
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Underestimating the impact of austerity
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This stage managed, policy free election
Free Exchange Economist
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Podcast: Trumponomics
[unable to retrieve full-text content]Simon Long delves into what Donald Trump means for taxes, growth and trade. Also: the markets react to Emmanuel Macron's election victory in France and China develops its first large passenger jet
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Europe needs true fiscal integration, not its own IMF
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Another pay rise?
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America’s economic growth slows to 0.7%
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Podcast: How will France’s election affect business?
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Podcast: How will France’s election affect business?
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Reducing rates for “pass-through” businesses will be tough to justify
Nick Rowe
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Remembering Peter George
Peter James George (1941-2017) died at home April 27th after a short illness. His passing leaves a remarkable legacy as an economic historian and academic leader. Peter grew up in the Toronto Islands, graduated from the University of Toronto, took up a faculty position in the Economics Department at McMaster University in 1965 and served his entire career there until retiring as President Emeritus in 2010. He became McMaster’s longest serving...
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Job tenures and the gig economy
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Five things that can help you get your conference submission accepted
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Trade Wars: Then and Now
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PhD Vouchers
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Statistics Canada’s historical housing cost data is wrong
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Milk is mind-bogglingly cheap.
Miles Kimball
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Twitter Debate on “Politicism” (Political Prejudice)
[unable to retrieve full-text content]Permalink
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The Reproducibility Crisis in Biomedical Research
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Noah Smith on the Lack of a Forward-Looking Center-Left Agenda
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Nick Timiraos and Andrew Tangel: In the Long Term, an Economy Can’t Expand Faster than the Combined Growth Rates of Its Working Population and Their Output Per Hour
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Economics Is Unemotional—And That’s Why It Could Help Bridge America’s Partisan Divide
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The Interest Rate as an Intertemporal Transportation Cost
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Edward Lawrence Kimball on Mormonism, Part 1
FT Alphaville
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Markets Live: Monday, 22nd May, 2017
11:02 am BE11:03amMonday then. Let's get on with this. Blank canvas good morning ML CommentGoesHere Good Morning All Soundbuy Morning BE11:03amWelcome to Markets Live, FT Alphaville's daily this. Soundbuy Pic choice down to you then...... BE11:03amThose with us on Friday might remember that Murph's off...
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Opening Quote: Stage set for Goodwin’s RBS testimony
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Further reading
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Thought for the weekend
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Consider avoiding icebergs this summer
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Clown Finance and Peak Bling in Monegasque merger
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Trader undeterred by lifetime ban from the futures industry
Greg Mankiw
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Why people prefer unequal societies
A friend points out that this paper is related to some themes I have written about. The abstract (emphasis added): There is immense concern about economic inequality, both among the scholarly community and in the general public, and many insist that equality is an important social goal. However, when people are asked about the ideal distribution of wealth in their country, they actually prefer unequal societies. We suggest that these two...
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Adverse Selection in Practice
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How Best to Tax Business
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How Not to Promote Education
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A Proposed Regulation
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Is something wrong with macro?
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The Rich Aren’t Getting Richer
John Cochrane’s blog
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Wild health care proposal
I found a lovely post on health care full of wild ideas at market-ticker.org. You may not agree with all the proposals -- wild even by my standards. But it is full of interesting detail on what's wrong with the microeconomics of health care delivery, as opposed to the usual focus on health insurance, and who ...
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A better r*
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Long run money
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Fintech and Shadow Banks
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Trade Haiku
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A Healthy Reform?
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Wonderful Loaf
Peterson Institute
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Macron’s Victory Signals Reform in France and a Stronger Europe
Emmanuel Macron's victory in the French presidential election clearly demonstrates that the populist dominos in advanced economies outside the Anglo-Saxon world were not even close to falling. The decisive vote also improves Macron's chances of winning a majority in Parliament that could enact his agenda of comprehensive French labor market and pension reforms. Successfully addressing the decades-old sclerosis in the domestic economy would...
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Theresa May’s Irresistible Election Gamble
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On the Need for (At Least) Five Classes of Macro Models
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An Opportunity to Streamline the European Union’s Financial Regulatory Architecture
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Lesson Learned (Again) from Macroeconomic Populism in Venezuela
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Greece Needs More Official Debt Relief—But How Much and at What Price?
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Curbing the Growth of US International Debt
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
In yesterday’s post, I discussed recent research, by Michael Kiley and John Roberts of the Federal Reserve Board, on the problems for monetary policy that arise from the fact that short-term interest rates can’t fall (much) below zero. [1] Using econometric models to simulate the performance of the U.S. economy, Kiley and Roberts (KR) find that, under certain assumptions, in the future short-term interest rates could be at zero as much as 30...
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How big a problem is the zero lower bound on interest rates?
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Why Dodd-Frank’s orderly liquidation authority should be preserved
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Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet
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The Fed and fiscal policy
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Federal Reserve economic projections: What are they good for?
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Sebastian Mallaby’s biography of Alan Greenspan
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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The St. Louis Fed’s Macroeconomic Outlook
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard recently gave this speech on the U.S. macroeconomic outlook. The key themes of his talk were:The U.S. economy has converged to a low-growth, low-safe-real-interest-rate regime, a situation that is unlikely to change dramatically over the near future; The Fed can afford to take a wait-and-see posture in regard to possible changes in U.S. fiscal and regulatory policies; The U.S. policy rate can remain...
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Sectoral and Occupational Trends in the U.S. Labor Market
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Fiscal over monetary policy?
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A reply to Lawrence White
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A public finance case for keeping the Fed’s balance sheet large
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Can the blockchain kill fake news?
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Some recent economic developments in Japan
Macro and Other Market Musings
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Bad Optics: the Fed’s Balance Sheet Edition
Despite the all Fed talk about shrinking its balance sheets, many observers are hoping the Fed keeps it large. They want the Fed to maintain a large balance sheet for various reasons: it earns a positive return for the government; it provides a financial stability tool via provisions of safe assets; it needs to remain big and accommodative until the economy really starts roaring. There are also complications to shrinking the Fed balance...
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Talking Monetary Policy with Paul Krugman
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Dollar Domination, Robot Monetary Overloads, and Closing the AD Gap
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Remembering All of Allan Meltzer’s Work
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Macro Musings Podcast: Josh Zumbrum
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Macro Musings Podcast: James Bullard
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Macro Musings Podcast: Tyler Cowen
John B. Taylor
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ECB Watching
Hundreds of financial market participants and news reporters showed up for the 18th annual “ECB and its Watchers” conference in Frankfurt last week. I was one of the speakers as I was at the first conference in 1999. It was a good day for talking about policy with candid questions and answers. ECB President Mario Draghi led off with a review of current policy; I followed with a talk about asset purchase programs (my assigned topic), and for...
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It’s Time to Pass the Financial Institutions Bankruptcy Act
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A New Hearing and, Possibly, a New Phase in Monetary Policy
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Milton Friedman on Freedom: A New Book
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Economic Policy Explains Growth Conundrum
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Restoring Prosperity
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Benefits of Comparing Policy with Reference Rules
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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David and Goliath: The sunspot agenda meets the MIT machine
Two interesting developments occurred on the DSGE front this week. CEPR, the London based research organization, published an ebook on the future of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models and Aurélian Saïdi and Beatrice Cherrier released an updated version of their history of the Penn/CEPREMAP research agenda on indeterminacy and sunspots. There could have been, and should have been, considerable overlap in these two events. Sadly there...
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Cách Nên Kinh Tê Vân Hành
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Let’s All Be Keynesians Now
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Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory
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Keynesian Economics Without the Consumption Function
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Reinventing the Keynesian Cross
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Keynes Betrayed
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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How to Re-Negotiate NAFTA
The Trump Administration says it is sticking with its core campaign promise to renegotiate NAFTA, which remains unpopular with many Americans even though economists think it has been beneficial. The President said again on April 20 that he will invoke the procedures for renegotiating the trade agreement soon (within “the next two weeks”). After that comes a 90-day consultation period with Congress before actual talks begin. It is worth asking...
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Mnuchin and Manipulation of Money
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Let the US Fiduciary Rule Go Ahead
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Let the US Fiduciary Rule Go Ahead
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Looking Back on Barack
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Outlook for 2017
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Demonetization on Five Continents
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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Must-Read: Dara Lind: It’s becoming increasingly clear that Jared Kushner is part of Trump’s Russia problem
Must-Read: Dara Lind: It’s becoming increasingly clear that Jared Kushner is part of Trump’s Russia problem: “Jared Kushner: the young, pragmatic, hardheaded businessman out to modernize the US government and moderate the worst tendencies of his father-in-law—Donald Trump… https://www.vox.com/2017/5/20/15668162/kushner-trump-russia-corruption …But what if… Jared is not a panacea… but one of its biggest problems? As the Trump...
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Must-Read: Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti: Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation
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Should-Read: Fabio Ghironi: On Twitter: to @MESandbu
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Must-Attend: Berkeley Behaviorial Economics Initiative: Celebration of 30 Years of Behavioral Economics at Berkeley
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Weekend reading: “mind the gap” edition
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Must- and Should-Reads: May 19, 2017
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Must-Read: Ryan Avent: Free exchange: A new anthology of essays
Telegraph Blog
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Opinion
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Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
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David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
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Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
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The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
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The Unionist way forward
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Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire
