Leaders
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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On Twitter: Week of October 15, 2019
[unable to retrieve full-text content]---- #noted #ontwitter #2019-10-15
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-10-15 13:52:23
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-10-15 13:31:46
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Perhaps. And Sometimes: Hoisted from the Archives from 2010
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-10-15 13:06:42
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-10-14 14:01:31
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-10-14 13:59:11
Bradley A. Hansen’s Blog
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A Description of the Problems with Edward Baptist’s “The Half Has Never Been Told” for Non-Economists
I’m writing this because Nikole Hannah Jones said on Twitter that she was trying to understand the argument that economic historians have against the work of Edward Baptist but had a problem with some of the terminology used by economists. I usually try to avoid economic jargon, but today I have tried even harder. If there are terms that are unclear please let me know. I'm also writing this because Ben Schneider suggested I give it a try. I...
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Economics needs better critics: Jared Bernstein edition
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Institutions, Norms, and Culture
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Blog Post From Nebraska
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“You think it’s dead but de past ain’t stopped breathin’ yet.”
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Gavin Wright on Slavery and Anglo-American Capitalism
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Public Goods, Private Roads, and the Case of Scandinavia
Casey Mulligan: Supply and Demand
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Medicare for All has Been Around for Years
Below is a chart of the fraction of Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Democrats) that sponsor or cosponsor "Medicare for All" (M4A) bills, including Senator Bernie Sanders' earlier versions under the title "American Health Security Act." All of these would prohibit private health insurance (Ted Kennedy's "Medicare for All" bills are not included). This shows that M4A has enjoyed...
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Comparing Presidents Reagan and Trump: The Case of International Trade
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Some Relevant International Trade Theory
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Economic Theory in the White House: An Index of 66 Instances in One Year
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Comparing Presidents Reagan and Trump: The Case of Regulation
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Economic Theory in the White House: The Rebate Rule
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“No One in Ohio Cares About Burma”: The Washington Bubble
Dani Rodrik’s weblog
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Follow my commentary
Even though I post here occasionally, my regular monthly pieces are published on the Project Syndicate website and you can read them here. For a full list of my opinion pieces, go here. My research papers and books are here and here, respectively. Finally, if you want to follow me in the news, check out here.
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Some (very brief) words for graduates
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Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
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Economists’ statement in support of Atif Mian
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My preface to Santiago Levy’s Book: Under-Rewarded Efforts — The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico
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My preface to Santiago Levy’s Book: Under-Rewarded Efforts — The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico
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Site Maintenance
David Flynn: Barter is Evil
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Public Banking: Bank of North Dakota Assets
I’ve given lots of interviews related to public banking over the last week. People are looking to North Dakota to gauge the likely outcomes in California. This is flawed for many reason but perhaps the biggest is that North Dakota does not have a law like California. North Dakota created THE Bank of North Dakota, not a law allowing various municipalities to create public owned banks. That is what the California legislation allows. There...
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Caller observation: Minimum Wage
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Quoted in Vox article
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Labor Force Growth and Streaks
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ND July Unemployment Rate
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North Dakota Median Age, 2010-2018
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The Week Ahead ~ 16 September 2019
Econbrowser – James Hamilton
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Is World Trade Volume a Leading Indicator?
The slowdown could be coming from tariffs, or from decelerating economic growth. You decide… Figure 1: World trade volume, 2010=100 (blue). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and NBER.
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In Bizarro World
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“Probability of the U.S. or World Entering a Recession in 2020”
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Nominal GDP Revisions (vs. Others)
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Manufacturing Employment, Hours Decline in September
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Guest Contribution: “It’s Finally Time for German Fiscal Expansion”
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Cooperation with “Red China”
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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A conversation with Eric Tymoigne on MMT vs SMT
There are a lot of moving parts to the MMT program. I want to focus on one of these parts today: the relation between monetary and fiscal policy. One thing I find appealing about MMT scholars is their attention to monetary history and institutional details. I've learned a lot from them in this regard. But as is often the case with details, one has to worry about whether they help shed light on a specific question of interest, or whether they...
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Blanchard and Farmer on the Phillips Curve
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Does the Phillips Curve Live in Europe?
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The Phillips Curve in Recession and Recovery
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Is the U.S. budget deficit sustainable?
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Is the ZLB an economic or legal constraint?
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The Chicago Booth Survey on MMT
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
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Hilbert’s Hotel and the National Debt when r < g
Hilbert's Hotel has infinitely many rooms. Even if every room is full, you can still make room for one more guest in room 1, by moving the guest currently in room 1 to room 2, moving the guest currently in room 2 to room 3, and so on forever. When the rate of interest r is less than the growth rate of GDP g ("r < g"), the national debt in an infinitely-lived economy is a bit like Hilbert's Hotel. The government prints some bonds,...
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On not “running out of ammo”: Monetary Policy as Farmland Price Policy
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What killed real wage growth?
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Project Link update
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Historical Canadian Government Data Sources
Tim Harford: Undercover Economist
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Steve Levitt plays poker with the FT
Steve Levitt plays poker with the FT “I used to play poker a ton and then I quit. It’s too time consuming and toooo boring.” There’s something boyish about the way Steve Levitt drags out the word. But then his inner economist reasserts itself: “What you come to realise about poker over time is that the ratio of luck to skill in the short term is too high to make it feel productive.” Here’s what you need to know about Levitt. He used to be...
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How this climate change economist changed my world
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Two evenings with Randall Munroe
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When it comes to productivity hacks, are you an Arnie or an Elon?
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The curious economics of being ripped off on holiday
Timothy Taylor: Conversable Economist
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Video Clips of Economists Explaining for Intro Econ Classes
I know a number of economics faculty who have been incorporating video clips into their classes. Sometimes it's part of a lecture presentation. Sometimes it's for students to watch before class. For intro students in particular, it can be a useful practice because it gives them a sense that they are being introduced to a universe of economists, not just to one professor and a textbook. The faculty member can also react to the video clip, and...
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Opinions about Semicolons
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Interview with Hal Varian: An Academic Goes to Google
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When Hayek Opposed the Nobel Prize in Economics
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The Economics Nobel: Who Might Have Won?
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Foreign Exchange Markets: $6.6 Trillion Per Day
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Waste and Worse in US Health Care Spending
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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How celebrities should handle Hong Kong
Tyler Cowen has offered advice, now I’ll offer my own. You should say: “Hong Kong is and should remain a part of China. I hope the people of Hong Kong will be allowed to choose their local government officials in democratic elections.” This is better than, “I support the HK protestors”, because it’s much harder for the Chinese government to mischaracterize your views. The Chinese government feeds a biased account of Hong Kong to its citizens....
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Trade: A reply to commenters
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More babysitters are desperately needed
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Market design bleg
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The US is losing the trade war, and that’s good
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A warning for Democrats
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The low interest rate century
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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Wednesday assorted links
1. Peter Navarro has an imaginary friend. 2. Why might Germany find it hard to grow (Bloomberg). 3. Twitter will now regulate the tweets of world leaders. 4. The photographic culture that is North Korea. 5. Where was the most plausible spot in 1550 for the Industrial Revolution to come? The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
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PR advice for celebrities on how to deal with China
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Facebook and privacy
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“Let’s Play Two!”
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The three percent digital tax
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The O-Ring Model of Development
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Claims about religious women
Simon Wren-Lewis
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A People’s Vote or a General Election: how does Johnson’s new deal change things
There is a big debate at the moment among those who support a People’s Vote (PV) about whether it should become before or after a General Election (GE). Let’s assume for now there are sufficient MPs willing to vote for the PV before a GE option, and that Johnson prefers a GE which he thinks he can win so there would be no PV. From a Remain point of view, should a GE or PV come first. I last discussedthis when a Johnson deal was dead and there...
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If the UK and EU can do a deal is everything now fine?
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The Liberal Democrats in the next General Election may win a few seats at the expense of a Johnson overall majority
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Should a second referendum happen before the General Election and what should accompany Remain on the ballot?
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How the Brexiters have controlled the narrative around Brexit
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This is the most dangerous UK government we have seen in our lifetimes
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Corbyn stakes everything on tactical voting by Remainers
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Seldomly
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When Fewer Options are Better for Consumers: The Benefits of Narrow Health Insurance Networks
Summary Should health insurers be required to allow their enrollees to visit any hospital or doctor? Many insurers limit enrollees to “in-network” medical providers, forcing them to pay significant “out-of-network” costs if they seek care elsewhere. Our research examines the role that limited medical provider networks play in the U.S. commercial healthcare market and measures both their...
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Providing low-cost labor market information to assist jobseekers
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Subsidizing health insurance for low-income adults: evidence from Massachusetts
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Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit
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Nominal wage rigidity in village labor markets: evidence from India
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Market power and the Laffer curve
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How management practices drive firms’ performance in the long run: evidence from the Marshall Plan
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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How Economics Can Help To Improve People’s Lives
Professor Roger Farmer discusses the cost to society of financial instability and how economics can help to improve people’s livesFriday 27 Sep 2019The International Journal of Economic Theory issued a Festschrift in honour of Warwick Professor Roger E.A. Farmer this year. The Festschrift reviews and pays tribute to Roger’s ideas, his career and his intellectual legacy up ...
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A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
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Central Bank Equity Purchases: An Idea Whose Time has Come
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The Future of Macroeconomics
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Why the Indeterminacy Agenda Matters in the Real World
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Replacing the Phillips Curve: I showed you my macro model. Now show me your macro model.
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There are many unemployment rates for any r*
Project Syndicate
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The Survival of Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe
Following parliamentary elections in Poland and local elections in Hungary, populist autocrats in both countries remain in power, where they will continue to undermine democratic institutions. Even so, relative victories for opposition forces in both countries show that the region's "illiberal democrats" are not unbeatable. WARSAW – Is populism in Central and Eastern Europe finally...
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The Necessity of Climate Economics
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A Window of Opportunity for African Fossil Fuels
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India’s Modi Slowdown
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Will Trump Be Removed from Office?
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Sustained by Sustainable Coffee
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Unsustainable Australia
Paul Krugman
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God Is Now Trump’s Co-Conspirator
Listening to the speech William Barr, the attorney general, gave last week at the University of Notre Dame Law School, I found myself thinking of the title of an old movie: “God Is My Co-Pilot.” What I realized is that Donald Trump’s minions have now gone that title one better: If Barr’s speech is any indication, their strategy is to make God their boss’s co-conspirator.Given where we are right now, you might have expected Barr to respond in...
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Luckily, Trump Is an Unstable Non-Genius
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The Education of Fanatical Centrists
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Here Comes the Trump Slump
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Warren Versus the Petty Plutocrats
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Impeaching Trump Is Good for the Economy
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The Winners and Losers of the Latest Trump Scandal
Noah Smith
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Why Kevin Williamson is wrong about poverty and bad behavior
I recently wrote a post at Bloomberg Opinion arguing that "bad behavior" - drug use, violence, single parenthood, and idleness - is not the main cause of poverty in advanced nations. As evidence, I cited the country of Japan, which has extremely low rates of drug use, violence, single parenthood, and idleness, and yet which has a poverty rate almost as high as that of the U.S., and significantly higher than those of wealthy European...
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The Middle Eastern Thirty Years War?
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Examining an MMT model in detail
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Where should Americans live if they live abroad?
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Guest post: Roy Bahat on Uber, Lyft, and the future of work
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A proposal for an Alternative Green New Deal
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Book Review: The Revolt of the Public, by Martin Gurri
Offsetting Behaviour
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The Bank’s Bully Pulpit
This is bad. The article is good. But the situation described is very bad.Here's Kate MacNamara on Orr and the RBNZ. It would be an open process, the bank said, welcoming all views. But that characterisation was soon at odds with the governor's behaviour.Numerous parties involved in the submission process described a pattern of behaviour by Orr of belittling and berating those who disagreed with him.Orr has penned his critics letters and...
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Special licences
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Referendums are great
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Afternoon roundup
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Policy bets
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…so long as they can write the hymnbooks
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On the merits of perspective
Microeconomic Insights
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When Fewer Options are Better for Consumers: The Benefits of Narrow Health Insurance Networks
Summary Should health insurers be required to allow their enrollees to visit any hospital or doctor? Many insurers limit enrollees to “in-network” medical providers, forcing them to pay significant “out-of-network” costs if they seek care elsewhere. Our research examines the role that limited medical provider networks play in the U.S. commercial healthcare market and measures both their...
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Providing low-cost labor market information to assist jobseekers
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Subsidizing health insurance for low-income adults: evidence from Massachusetts
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Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit
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Nominal wage rigidity in village labor markets: evidence from India
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Market power and the Laffer curve
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How management practices drive firms’ performance in the long run: evidence from the Marshall Plan
Miles Kimball
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Zirui Song, Yunan Ji, Dana G. Safran, and Michael E. Chernew: Insurance Contract Incentives Work to Get More Bang for the Buck in Health Care Spending
A new study led by Harvard researchers presents a rare long-term examination of a promising payment system for providers that appears to slow galloping health care costs while improving care for chronic diseases like diabetes and high blood pressure and reducing emergency-room visits. Under the current method, insurers pay providers for each service rendered, a practice that critics say can encourage the use of increased treatment even when...
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Exoplanets and Faith
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29 Years of the Ig Nobel Prize
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Regional Economics: Understanding the Third Great Transition—Paul Krugman
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Adding a Variable Measured with Error to a Regression Only Partially Controls for that Variable
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Sangyoon Park: Workers at a Seafood Processing Plant Said They’d Sacrifice 4% of Their Wage to Work Near a Friend, but Their Productivity Went Up 10% When They Didn’t
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The Carbohydrate-Insulin Model Wars
Miles Corak: Economics for public policy
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How do the party platforms address the changing nature of work, pay, and poverty?
The world of work is changing and creating anxiety about jobs and incomes. There is some overlap on how the major parties contesting the Canadian federal election propose to deal with these challenges, but the Conservatives are definitely the outlier. The Greens score high on vision but low on feasibility, both the New Democrats and Liberals put a list of reasonable proposals on the table, with the Liberals offering a bigger vision that is...
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Intergenerational mobility between and within Canada and the United States
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The “middle class” is within easier reach for low income Canadian children, than it is for low income Americans
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If there is such a thing as the “Canadian Dream,” it would look very much like what Americans say is the “American Dream”
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Equality of opportunity is a choice
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Rest in peace Alan Krueger
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The changing nature of work calls for enhancing the human and financial capital of children in less wealthy families
Mark Thoma
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Links (9/25/19)
The Cost of America’s Oligopoly Problem - ProMarket An innovative new study finds substantial, increasing deadweight losses resulting from oligopolistic behavior and points to the important role that startup acquisitions—particularly by large tech firms—played in driving this trend. Helicopter money as a policy option - VoxEU With persistently weak economic conditions becoming the norm in Europe, economists are considering increasingly...
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Links (9/13/19)
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Links (9/05/19)
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Links (8/23/19)
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Links (8/08/19)
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Links (8/01/19)
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Links (7/22/19)
Managerial Econ
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3 Randomista’s win Nobel prize in economics
...for using Randomized Control Trials to figure out which policies work and which do not. Here are some blog posts on information from randomized control trials: Before going on a date, consult an economist Randomistas: fighting poverty with science What do physicians have in common with pilots? Book recommendation: Randomistas Below is a Ted Talk from one of the winners (I suspect that it would be profitable for business to run more...
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Why are 600,000 waiting for apartments in Stockholm?
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Learn regression simply
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Conneticut’s slow job growth
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What could possibly go wrong?
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How did Blockbuster’s CEO solve the double marginalization problem?
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NY Times should read Chapter 9
Macro and Other Market Musings
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Allan Meltzer’s Life Work
The Hoover Press and the Mercatus Center have just released a new book on Allan Meltzer's contributions to economics. The book is comprised of papers that were presented at a 2018 conference commemorating his work on the monetary transmission mechanism, the history of the Fed, and his more general work on public policy. Below is the table of contents for the book: I happen to be the editor of the book and, as seen above, have two chapters...
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New Policy Brief on NGDPLT
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The Repo Man Cometh
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Some Assorted Macro Musings
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More on the U.S. as a Banker to the World
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New Articles on NGDP Targeting
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Is the Fed’s Floor System Beginning to Fold?
John B. Taylor
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9/11/2001 and the 18 Years Since Then
Today we remember September 11, 2001 and all that has happened in the 18 years since then. I was in a hotel room in Tokyo when the first plane hit the World Trade Center, recently sworn in as Under Secretary at Treasury. We immediately cancelled our meetings and by the next morning we were on a C-17 military jet Flying Back to Treasury on 9/11. When we got back, the city was on alert. DC was a logical place for another attack, and the secret...
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Economics 1: Now More Important Than Ever
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Choice of IMF Managing Director Should Reflect 75 Years of Change
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A Beautiful Model Now Questioned
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Central Bank Independence Is Not Enough
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Africa Meeting of Econometricians: History, Revival and Ways Forward
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A Decade of July 4th Debt Explosions: Are They Getting Less Spectacular?
John Cochrane – Grumpy Economist
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Bans on fracking and nuclear power
If you want evidence that climate policy has become unhinged from science and quantification, becoming more like a religious cult, look no further than the recent Democratic presidential candidates' proposals to ban fracking immediately and nuclear power soon.From Michael Cembalest at JP MorganI'm not a denier. Yes, carbon is a problem, warming is a problem, ...
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More on low long-term interest rates
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Intellectual property and the trade deficit
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Low bond yields
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Why stop at 100? The case for perpetuities
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Summers tweet stream on secular stagnation
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Inflation, and history
Leisure of the Theory Class
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The game theory of the electoral threshold
The game theory of the electoral threshold April 7, 2019 in Uncategorized Israel is holding an election Tuesday. It’s a multi-party system in Israel, based on proportional representation, and the main battle is between two blocs of parties. We call them the left-wing bloc and the right-wing bloc, and civics textbooks will tell you that this division is about policy: the Arab-Israeli conflict, economics and the role of religion. But...
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Institute for Wow
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New Linear Algebra Division
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A New Business Idea
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Arms and Projects
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Weber’s proof of Gittins Index Theorem
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Samuelson on Linear Programming
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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It’s Finally Time for German Fiscal Stimulus
TweetSeptember 30, 2019 — As long as the German economy was doing well, as it was during the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis, there existed a coherent rationale for German fiscal austerity. The national commitment to budget discipline was enshrined in the 2009 “debt brake,” which limits the federal structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, and by the 2011 “schwarze Null” (that is, “black zero”) policy of fully balancing the budget. ...
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Median income flattens
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RMB reaches 7.0; US names China a manipulator
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Parallel to US-China trade war, Japan & Korea fall out
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Trump escalates China trade war
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Let’s Forget about 2% Inflation
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Tenth birthday of the June 2009 recovery
Global Economic Intersection
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Third Biggest Consumer Surprise In 21st Century
Posted on 16 October 2019 by UPFINA Article of the Week from UPFINAThe August University of Michigan consumer confidence report was highly discussed because it showed a big decline in confidence. It caused some to think the trade war was significantly hurting consumer spending. We now have the benefit of hindsight which tells us retail sales growth improved, but PCE growth didn’t.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand...
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Our Nuts Are In Danger
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Matter And Models
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Social Security Is Dying Because Baby Boomers Aren’t
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The Theory Of Relativity: Anticipated At The Turn Of The Seventeenth Century By George Berkeley
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Quantum Economics
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Changes In Final Estimate 2Q 2019 GDP Are Statistical Noise
FT Alphaville
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Initiating coverage of SocGen’s Richard-Maxime Beaudoux: “SELL”
With all the added disclosure and transparency that was supposed to arrive with MIFID II, we were sure there’d be a special box to tick for an analyst to declare their inability to read a basic chart.But we’ve been through the 28 pages of Richard-Maxime Beaudoux gushing “Buy” note on Wirecard and we still can’t find the relevant admission.Mr Beaudoux moved recently from the Paris-office of tech-focused investment bank Bryan, Garnier & Co...
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WeWork’s balance sheet breathing space
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The Wirecard documents, explained
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Further reading
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Presented without comment
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Elizabeth Warren’s frac attack
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Inflation’s vagaries lie behind the scrap at the ECB
Economonitor
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Turning Promises into Reality
The Business Case for Gender Equality in Achieving the SDGs By Paula Tavares and Otaviano Canuto As world leaders gathered this month for high-level talks at the 74th United Nations General Assembly, pressing global issues were at the forefront of discussions, including progress toward the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While taking stock of how far we have come in realizing commitments in key areas, including to...
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Latin America Is Not Benefiting from the U.S.-China Trade War
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The IMF needs a bridge-builder at the helm – that’s what it looks set to get
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How Syria’s Gross Mismanagement of Water is Critical Factor Leading to Civil War
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Oman’s Make or Break Economic Transition
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Fed Monetary Policy, Inverted Yield Curve and US and Global Economic Outlooks
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Argentina’s half-baked adjustment has not worked
Donald Marron
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Should Congress Use The Income Tax To Discourage Consumer Drug Ads?
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and a score of Democratic cosponsors want to use the tax code to discourage direct-to-consumer advertising by drug companies. Their bill, the End Taxpayer Subsidies for Drug Ads Act, would prohibit firms from taking tax deductions for any consumer advertising of prescription drugs. Limiting tax deductions is a blunt and arbitrary way of approaching a legitimate concern. Consumer drug ads play an important role in...
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Should Congress Use The Income Tax To Discourage Consumer Drug Ads?
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Designing Carbon Dividends
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Designing Carbon Dividends
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Three Things You Should Know about the Buyback Furor
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Three Things You Should Know about the Buyback Furor
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Talking Money, Inflation, Fiat, & Bitcoin
Cyril Morong: Dangerous Economist
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Using Reggae to Fight Inflation
See ‘Keep de Rates dem Low’—Jamaica Sets Inflation Fight to Reggae Beat: Central bank calls on music stars to record upbeat songs explaining inflation targeting, monetary policy and consistent GDP growth by Robbie Whelan. If you go to the article, you can watch one of the music videos. Excerpt: "KINGSTON, Jamaica—Call it Reggaenomics.As a drumbeat eases the listener into a familiar reggae rhythm, the high tenor of Jamaican pop star...
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Do We Have A Zombie Economy?
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How the U.S. justifies & enforces sanctions on countries like Iran and how other countries try to get around the sanctions
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Why honey prices have climbed about 25% since 2013
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Why Doing Good Makes It Easier to Be Bad
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How Technology Has Changed The Distribution Of Income Among Musicians
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Another Semester Has Started
Greg Mankiw
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Sad News from China
Via the NY Times: Some universities have replaced textbooks by Western academics such as Milton Friedman and N. Gregory Mankiw with books written under a program called “Marxist theory research and building project.”
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Blanchard on the Fed’s Target
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Piketty and Saez Revisited
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Yang vs Warren
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The Trophy Wife Tax Credit
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Economics Teaching Conference
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Should grad students teach?
Ben Bernanke
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Evaluating lower-for-longer policies: Temporary price-level targeting
By Ben S. Bernanke Despite a long and sustained recovery from the Great Recession, a number of factors—including an aging population, slow productivity growth, and subdued inflation—continue to exert downward pressure on U.S. interest rates. It seems likely that even when monetary policy is at a neutral setting, neither restraining nor stimulating the economy, interest rates will remain significantly lower than in recent decades. One...
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The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman
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Financial panic and credit disruptions in the 2007-09 crisis
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Temporary price-level targeting: An alternative framework for monetary policy
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When growth is not enough
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Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
Carola Binder: Quantitative Ease
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Central Banking Stories to Watch in 2019
Happy New Year, everybody! 2018 has been a quiet year for my blog, but productive on other fronts, as I've kept busy with research and my family. But here are a few central bank-related stories I'm interested in following in the new year. 1. New Governor at Reserve Bank of IndiaFollowing the early exit of Governor Urjit Patel in December, Prime Minister Modi appointed the third central bank governor in just three years: Shaktikanta Das....
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Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump
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“Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past”
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From Senior Thesis to Publication
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Snapshot of the Publication and Review Process as an Assistant Professor
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Mortgage-Backed Securities Ratings and Losses Maybe Not So Bad
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D is for Devastating: A Statistical Error and the Vitamin D Saga
Free Exchange Economist
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Republicans grouse about tax models they once supported
THEY have been at this a long time. In 1994 Republicans, newly in charge of Congress, held hearings on what would come to be called “dynamic scoring”. Bills, they said, should be evaluated using the predictive power of macroeconomic models. If the model predicts more GDP growth, then it could be inferred that the growth would produce more tax revenue. During the hearings, however, came an awkward moment. Alan Greenspan, then in charge of the...
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Podcast: The Italian bailout job
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Podcast: A poison chalice for GE’s new boss
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A new paper rekindles a tiresome debate on immigration and wages
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Why scan-reading artificial intelligence is bad news for radiologists
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Why the Fed is likely to raise rates, despite low inflation
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Religious competition was to blame for Europe’s witch hunts
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Jared Bernstein: On the economy
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The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power
As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...
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How Brexit will constrain a future Labour government
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Is a flexible labour market a problem for central bankers?
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Brexit and Democracy
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The UK slowdown is a result of Brexit and austerity
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Why Owen Jones is wrong about Brexit
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Lexit
Josh Hendrickson: Everyday Economist
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On Drawing the Wrong Lessons from Theory: The Natural Rate of Unemployment
Economic theory is important. Theory provides discipline. Economists write down a set of assumptions and follow those assumptions to their logical conclusions. The validity of a particular theory is then tested against observed data. Modern economic theory is often mathematical, but theory comes in a variety of forms. Sometimes theory is used to develop and test specific empirical predictions. Other times, economic theory acts as a type of...
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On Exhaustible Resources, Part 2
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On Exhaustible Resources
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A Simple Lesson About Money and Models
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Macro Musings
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Updates
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Monetary Policy as a Jobs Guarantee
Owen Zidar
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Who were the top taxpayers in 1923?
From page 71 of Daniel Marcin’s “The Revenue Act of 1924: Publicity, Tax Cuts, Response” div{float:left;margin-right:10px;} div.wpmrec2x div.u > div:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0px;} ]]> Advertisements
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Trump won in counties that lost jobs to China and Mexico
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The Effect of Pension Income on Elderly Earnings: Evidence from Social Security and Full Population Data
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Why Retire When You Can Work? Hours are way up for elderly workers
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Zip-code Economics
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Financial firms make large share of pass-through income
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Pass-through income and the top 1%
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Peterson Institute
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The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power
As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...
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How Brexit will constrain a future Labour government
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Is a flexible labour market a problem for central bankers?
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Brexit and Democracy
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The UK slowdown is a result of Brexit and austerity
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Why Owen Jones is wrong about Brexit
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Lexit
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Telegraph Blog
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The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power
As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...
Read more » -
How Brexit will constrain a future Labour government
-
Is a flexible labour market a problem for central bankers?
-
Brexit and Democracy
-
The UK slowdown is a result of Brexit and austerity
-
Why Owen Jones is wrong about Brexit
-
Lexit