Leaders
Mark Thoma: Economist View
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Links (1/15/19)
Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? - Paul Krugman Disruption, Concentration, and the New Economy - Raghuram Rajan The Flynn Effect (Rising IQ Scores Over Time) Reverses - Tim Taylor Bad Precedent - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz 1789, the return of the debt - Thomas Piketty Front-Door Criterion Follow-Up - Marc F. Bellemare How Much Value Was Destroyed by the Lehman Bankruptcy? - Liberty Street In Conversation with Atif Mian -...
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Links (1/11/19)
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Links (1/7/19)
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Links (12/31/18)
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Links (12/17/18)
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Links (12/7/18)
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Links (12/4/18)
Paul Krugman
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The Real Governments of Blue America
Officially, a big part of the federal government shut down late last month. In important ways, however, America’s government went AWOL almost two years earlier, when Donald Trump was inaugurated.After all, politicians supposedly seek office in order to get stuff done — to tackle real problems and implement solutions. But neither Trump, who spends his energy inventing crises at the border, nor the Republicans who controlled Congress for two...
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What to Expect When You’re Expecting Brexit
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Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall?
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Donald Trump and His Team of Morons
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Trump’s Big Libertarian Experiment
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Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt
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Elizabeth Warren and Her Party of Ideas
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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Economic indicators and the risk of “lowflation”
As we enter 2019, there are some economic indicators worth thinking about. Some are obvious, like the strong jobs growth (stronger than I expected.) Some are more subtle. Here are wage inflation (blue) and core PCE inflation (red): In my view, wage inflation is far more meaningful. But PCE inflation is what the Fed is targeting, so we also need to pay attention to that variable. I’d expect it to follow wage inflation, but the relationship is...
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How to fix the NBA
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When should we be worried about monetary policy?
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Films of 2018
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Kocherlakota wins 2013 (and Powell loses)
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My views on monetary policy: An update
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Shaming
Noah Smith
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Yuppie Fishtanks: YIMBYism explained without “supply and demand”
YIMBYism is the idea that cities need to build more housing in order to relieve upward pressure on rents. In Northern California, where I live, YIMBYs tend to get into fights with progressives about market-rate housing. YIMBYs don't want to build only market-rate housing, but they think market-rate housing has to be an important component.NorCal progressives, in contrast, tend to think that market-rate housing is bad - either they think it...
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Noah Smith’s Japan Travel Guide
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Book Review – “The Space Between Us”
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DeLong vs. Krugman on globalization
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Sheepskin effects – signals without signaling
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The “cackling cartoon villain” defense of DSGE
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Defending Thaler from the guerrilla resistance
Project Syndicate
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America Must Face Reality on China
For all the economic rivalry and political disagreement between the United States and China, a catastrophic outcome is unlikely, so long as the US faces reality in three ways. Above all, Americans should recognize that trying to defeat or contain China economically will not solve their problems at home. BEIJING – The agreement in Buenos Aires last December between US President Donald Trump and his...
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A Murder in Gdańsk
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Saving Children from Having Children
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Korea’s Year of Living Diplomatically
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Africa’s Historic Pivot
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The Trump Administration’s Farewell to Aims
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Run Down the Brexit Clock
Cyril Morong: Dangerous Economist
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TV chefs showcase recipes using mutton, prices jump
By Lucy Craymer of The WSJ. When tastes increase, demand shifts to the right, raising price. That might have happened since chefs have been featuring this meat, increasing consumers' desire for it. Also, farmers have been raising less sheep in order to move into more profitable products. When the price of good A rises, the supply of good B decreases or shifts to the left (if a firm can produce both products) Excerpt: "Prices of mutton...
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A wave of the tech giants making inroads into the banking business with data tracking algorithms
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Toxic Smoke Is Africa’s Quiet Killer. An Entrepreneur Says His Fix Can Make a Fortune
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Some 43% of College Grads Are Underemployed in First Job
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The World Is Getting Quietly, Relentlessly Better
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Some Companies Offer To Pay All College Expenses For Their Workers
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The Dangerous Economist 2018-12-30 23:16:43
Miles Corak: Economics for public policy
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The changing nature of work calls for enhancing the human and financial capital of children in less wealthy families
The Canadian federal government should enhance the human and financial capital of children in less wealthy families, enhance market incomes of lower paid workers, and enhance the security of working incomes by adapting three existing programs to new realities: widening their scope, making them more flexible, and making them easier to obtain. The changing world of work is also a changing world of pay, a world that will likely lean toward...
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Canada’s Poverty Reduction Strategy adopts the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal to end poverty
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Canada’s official poverty line: what is it? how could it be better?
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Ask yourself two questions while reading Canada’s Poverty Reduction Strategy
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Ever wonder where to find the Trump Tower? Then take this “Trump Walking Tour” with me, and learn even more
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Thinking about minimum wages, and thinking about them like an economist
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The Caledon Institute of Social Policy is Canadian social policy
Dani Rodrik’s weblog
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Economists’ statement in support of Atif Mian
It is with dismay that I learned recently that Princeton's Atif Mian, one of the greatest scholars on finance and macroeconomics I know, was disinvited from Pakistan's Economic Advisory Council because of his religious beliefs. See here and here for more background. Timur Kuran and I have put together a statement, along with many friends who support Atif. The statement is below. We already have more than 90 signatories, including 26 economists...
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My preface to Santiago Levy’s Book: Under-Rewarded Efforts — The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico
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My preface to Santiago Levy’s Book: Under-Rewarded Efforts — The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico
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Site Maintenance
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More on distinguishing ideas and interests — an exchange with Peter Hall
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More on distinguishing ideas and interests — an exchange with Peter Hall
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Has Global Finance Reformed Itself More Than It Appears?
Global Economic Intersection
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The Decline Of African-American And Hispanic Wealth Since The Great Recession
Posted on 14 January 2019 from Voxeu.org -- this post authored by Edward Wolfe, New York UniversityUnlike income inequality, wealth inequality along racial lines in the US has received relatively little attention. This column presents new evidence on the changing landscape of relative wealth among whites, blacks, and Hispanics between 1983 and 2016. Using an augmented measure of wealth, it highlights how cuts to social security will...
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Something Wicked This Way Comes
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Gunnar Myrdal’s Monetary Equilibrium Theory: A Summarized Version
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Does The December Labor Report Change The Outlook?
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Partisan Professionals: Evidence From Credit Rating Analysts
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The Year Of Living Dangerously
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Did Global QE End In 2018?
Casey Mulligan: Supply and Demand
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Mathematica advertising economics tools
This email has been going around. Check it out!Dear Economist,Mathematical techniques and computational experiments have always been tools to complement and interpret data and models.Quantifier elimination, recognized by Alfred Tarski in the late 1940s as a computable task when working at RAND, was initially considered impractical because of its high complexity (doubly exponentially).But the task is conceptually quite simple: instead of...
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Inflation has little to do with the Unemployment Rate
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How Can I Get Introduced to Automated Reasoning for Economics and Statistics?
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Monopolies are unhealthy, but high taxes make the disease worse
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NYTimes Packs Five Ungrounded Economic Opinions in Two Sentences
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Corporate-income Tax Incidence with Imperfect Competition
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Robots: Leibniz’ dream is coming true in economics
Bradley A. Hansen’s Blog
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Lyra
Since several students asked about my dog, here is a picture of Lyra Since this blog is supposedly about economics, here is a link to wagaroo a non-profit that helps match people in need of pets with pets in need of people. It was founded by University of Mary Washington econ alum Christine Exley, who went on to earn her Ph.D. at Stanford and is now a professor at Harvard Business School. Here is an interview that Frank Conway did with...
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The History of the History of Sears and Jim Crow
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Accounting for Slavery
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Accounting for Capitalism
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Henry Clay, Edward Baptist, and the Whipping Machine
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That’s Just Econ 101 Part 2
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Productive and Unproductive Error
Managerial Econ
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Why are baseball salaries falling?
Because the profitability of winning has fallen with increases in revenue sharing: “If you’re at the top, and you’re going to have to share more of your revenue with low-revenue teams, then maybe you’re less willing to pay on hiring that new player,” Bradbury tells Deadspin. (Revenue sharing, in case you’re wondering, operates like a marginal tax even on low-income teams’ revenues, since the size of their checks dwindles for each additional...
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Risk/return tradeoff: investors compensating for holding risky local Chinese debt
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Most significant economic research of 2018
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Bitcoin Bubble
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Is giving inefficient?
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Vertical Integration in Hollywood
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Meeting in the Middle
Donald Marron
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Designing Carbon Dividends
Carbon dividends are the hottest idea in climate policy. A diverse mix of progressive and conservative voices are backing the idea of returning carbon tax revenues to households in the form of regular “dividend” payments. So are a range of businesses and environmental groups. Two weeks ago, six House members—three Democrats and three Republicans—introduced carbon dividend legislation. Here is the idea: A robust carbon tax would cut emissions...
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Three Things You Should Know about the Buyback Furor
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Talking Money, Inflation, Fiat, & Bitcoin
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How Should Tax Reform Treat Employee Stock and Options?
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Eight Thoughts on Business Tax Reform
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The 3-2-1 on Economic Growth: Hope for 3, Plan for 2, Pray it isn’t 1
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Outside Research Organizations Can’t Replace CBO’s Budget Team
David Flynn: Barter is Evil
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Employment Comparisons for Grand Forks, ND
So despite the continued need to focus on wages I branched out a bit this week. Wage level growth, or the lack of it, can explain a significant amount of the problems for Grand Forks in terms of labor market dynamics as well as a general radio caller sense that things are not moving in the right direction. It seems to me that we should also look at a broader picture at the same time and bring in more labor market variables and some variables...
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Still more wages in ND
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Brexit Choices Going Forward
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Student Brexit Poll
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The Week Ahead: Brexit Vote
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Another Look at ND Wage data
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Comparing ND City Economic Performance – Wages
Josh Hendrickson: Everyday Economist
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A Simple Lesson About Money and Models
Imagine you are in your high school algebra class and you are presented with the following two equations: Two linear equations with 2 unknowns. This is a simple problem to solve. Now suppose that your teacher gives you the following three equations: Note that this is still a simple problem to solve. The first two equations are identical to the previous example. You can use those first two equations to solve for x and y. Then, knowing x, you...
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Macro Musings
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Updates
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Monetary Policy as a Jobs Guarantee
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How Did the Gold Standard Work? Part 1: The Efficiency of the Gold Standard
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Towards an Alchian-type Approach to Political Economy
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The Sleight-of-Hand of Olson-esque Public Choice
Leisure of the Theory Class
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Institute for Wow
Institute for Wow December 15, 2018 in academic satire, education, Popular Science Hot on the heels of its new Division of Linear Algebra, Empire State’s President announced a new Institute for Wow. Unlike other centers and institutes on campus that were dedicated to basic research or innovation, this one would focus only on research that would grab attention. “Universities,” she said, “ have tried for centuries to inform and...
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New Linear Algebra Division
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A New Business Idea
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Arms and Projects
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Weber’s proof of Gittins Index Theorem
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Samuelson on Linear Programming
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Entrepreneurship
Timothy Taylor: Conversable Economist
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Trump, Year Two: The Economic Record
When President Trump took office January 20, 2017, I asked "What if Trump Skeptics, Like Me, Turn Out to be Wrong? I wrote then: If a Trump presidency turns out badly in various ways, then Trump skeptics like me will certainly say so. But if matters don't go wrong, then in fairness, then it seems to me that Trump skeptics should take a pledge to admit and acknowledge in a few years that at least some of our doubts and suspicions were...
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How Does China’s Higher GDP Translate into National Power?
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What Message is the Beveridge Curve Sending?
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The Flynn Effect (Rising IQ Scores Over Time) Reverses
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What if Most Americans Don’t Care That Deeply about Trade?
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A Global Human Capital Index
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Daniel Kahneman: “People Don’t Want to be Happy”
Econbrowser
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PredictIt on Whether the Federal Government Will Be Closed on 1/18 (or later…)
Bets are “yes”… Figure 1: Probability of closure on 1/18 or after (blue, left scale), and volume (red, right scale). Source: PredictIt accessed 8:30PM Eastern.
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Policy Uncertainty and the Term Spread over the Government Closure
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“Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports”
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Adding Insult to Injury
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Market Expectations on the Shutdown: 65% Ending on 18th or After
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“International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing”
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“A Third of a Century of Currency Expectations Data: The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium”
Tim Harford: Undercover Economist
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Stop sniping at central banks and set clear targets
Stop sniping at central banks and set clear targets What is the most important job in the world? President? Teacher? Parent? I suggest a post that would not feature on most people’s lists: central banker. James Carville, who advised US president Bill Clinton, once quipped that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market, able to intimidate anybody. But as Ben Bernanke, Mervyn King and more recently Mario Draghi (crisis-era central...
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Why good forecasters become better people
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The economist’s guide to the perfect Christmas
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Brexit, Trump, and how politics loses the capacity to shock
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Messy desks and benign neglect allow ideas to grow
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The untold career value of a little bit of luck
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What the Sydney Opera House teaches us about Brexit
Owen Zidar
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Who were the top taxpayers in 1923?
From page 71 of Daniel Marcin’s “The Revenue Act of 1924: Publicity, Tax Cuts, Response” div{float:left;margin-right:10px;} div.wpmrec2x div.u > div:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0px;} ]]> Advertisements
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Trump won in counties that lost jobs to China and Mexico
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The Effect of Pension Income on Elderly Earnings: Evidence from Social Security and Full Population Data
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Why Retire When You Can Work? Hours are way up for elderly workers
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Zip-code Economics
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Financial firms make large share of pass-through income
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Pass-through income and the top 1%
Microeconomic Insights
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Bias in cable news
How much does consuming news with a strong political slant influence Americans’ votes in presidential elections? And how strongly do people prefer news sources that are slanted towards their own political preferences? This research provides evidence on the persuasive effects of slanted news and viewers’ tastes for like-minded news by analyzing data on the three big US cable news channels: CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC. The results indicate that...
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Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining?
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Optimal timing of unemployment benefits: evidence from Sweden
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US Treasury auctions: measuring the effectiveness of primary markets for government securities
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The effects of coordinating school assignments through a centralized mechanism
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The impact of protection on trade: lessons from Britain’s 1930s policy shift
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Growth and well-being: policy should not be based on GDP alone
Carola Binder: Quantitative Ease
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Central Banking Stories to Watch in 2019
Happy New Year, everybody! 2018 has been a quiet year for my blog, but productive on other fronts, as I've kept busy with research and my family. But here are a few central bank-related stories I'm interested in following in the new year. 1. New Governor at Reserve Bank of IndiaFollowing the early exit of Governor Urjit Patel in December, Prime Minister Modi appointed the third central bank governor in just three years: Shaktikanta Das....
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Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump
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“Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past”
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From Senior Thesis to Publication
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Snapshot of the Publication and Review Process as an Assistant Professor
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Mortgage-Backed Securities Ratings and Losses Maybe Not So Bad
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D is for Devastating: A Statistical Error and the Vitamin D Saga
Economonitor
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Current Account Deficits and Safe Assets
The International Monetary Fund has issued its External Sector Report for 2017, and among its key findings: “Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016…” The U,S. continues to record the largest deficit, $451.7 billion, which is equal in value to 2.4% of U.S. GDP. The continuing deficits contribute to the increase in the ...
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Why Lebanon’s New Government Needs a New Economic Model
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A New Banking Crisis?
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John Maynard Keynes and Effective Macroeconomic Policy
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Can Uganda Step Up to New Economic Challenges?
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New Pragmatism: Economics and Economic Policy for the Future
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Transformative Changes in World Energy Production and Trade
Offsetting Behaviour
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Ration books
The IEA's Chris Snowdon tries to live by the ration book that The Lancet's public health people would impose on the UK.First up, the recommended diet, from page five of their report. I like that they have a 31 gram ration of sweets.* Anyway, Chris does his best. But it doesn't look all that appealing. Here's breakfast: [WATCH] The IEA's very own health warrior @CJSnowdon decided to try the @TheLancet's delicious nutrition guidelines...
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Drug convictions
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Health and heritability
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Afternoon roundup
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What should Knightean economists do?
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Good character?
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Sunk costs in politics
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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Friday assorted links
1. “A family in London is offering $96,000 a year to someone willing to live with them and help turn their 2 sons into professional soccer players.” 2. Technology zone white paper contest. 3. Has China’s population already begun to decline? (NYT) And Thomas Edsall on gender in American politics (NYT). 4. “Lego sets that focus on Super Heroes, Batman and Indiana Jones are among the ones that do best over time. The Simpsons is the only Lego...
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The polity that is Sikkim
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I don’t actually favor the “citizen dividend” side of a carbon tax
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A Behavioral Interpretation of the Origins of African American Family Structure
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A simple test for whether or not you understand an organization
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Thursday assorted links
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Who again has the power to end the government shutdown?
Jared Bernstein: On the economy
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There’s heightened nervousness about the next recession and there are signs pointing in both directions.
I can’t turn around without seeing or hearing people worrying more about the next recession. Google Trends: Web search for “next recession” Source: Google Trends My peeps at the Indicator have a nice podcast on the topic. The WSJ points out that more than half of economists they surveyed expect a downturn by 2020, which, in case you live under a rock, the article helpfully notes is an election year. The reasons for the heightened anxiety...
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Blanchard on public debt and interest rates; also: thanks, MMTers!
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Links referenced in a recent talk
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Payrolls up big as a strong jobs report caps a strong year for the US labor market
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Testify! Diving into the weeds on debt, the spending vs. revenue problem, and “revealed preferences.”
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Blog repair…and a request for questions.
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Nick Hanauer’s Progressive Labor Standards: A bold idea to do more than just repair the damage.
Simon Wren-Lewis
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Parliament’s Brexit game
Someone may have done this elsewhere and probably with more accuracy, but I hadn’t seen it so I thought I’d work through the numbers myself. Suppose parliament breaks down into five main factions, with a very approximate indication of their size. Brexiters - No Deal 100May loyalists - No FoM 200People’s Vote 150Corbyn loyalists 30Soft Brexit 150 You can see how Tuesday’s vote worked...
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Is Norway+ the way forward?
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Should we worry about temporarily raising government debt? – Blanchard’s AEA Address
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The 2016 referendum was a badly designed rigged vote corruptly and unfairly won. Why is there so much deference to it?
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Lexit misdirection
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What does the ‘Stupid Woman’ saga tell us about the media
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What will happen if Labour enable Brexit
Free Exchange Economist
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Is there a wage growth puzzle in America?
TODAY’S labour market report showed that the American economy created 156,000 net new jobs in August. That was a bit less than expected, but payrolls are still growing comfortably faster than the working-age population. Despite having created over 2m jobs in the last year, pushing unemployment below 4.5% for the last five months, wage growth remains muted, at around 2.5%, compared to more like 3.5% the last time unemployment was comparably...
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The Nobel in economics rewards a pioneer of “nudges”
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Podcast: Goodbye, Benito
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Republicans grouse about tax models they once supported
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Podcast: The Italian bailout job
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Podcast: A poison chalice for GE’s new boss
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A new paper rekindles a tiresome debate on immigration and wages
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
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NAFTA – The “Worst” Trade Deal Ever
With time on my hands over the last week of the holiday season, I spent a bit more time than usual surfing news channels and watched a press conference by U.S. President Donald Trump in which among other things he again reiterated how the United States had been hard done by NAFTA and that it was the worst trade deal ever. Needless to say, while he has pronounced from the mount on this matter numerous times, for some reason it particularly...
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“Are we at full employment yet?”
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Are Open Market Operations wrong-signed when nominal rates are negative? (No)
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Explaining S=I: Inventories vs Adding up Individuals
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Keynesian Beauty Contest SRAS shocks
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Becoming Sustainable: The Six Stages of Provincial-Territorial Government Health Spending
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Australian Economic Growth in Longer Term Perspective
Miles Kimball
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Most Patients are not 100% Honest when Talking to their Doctors
ANN ARBOR—When your doctor asks how often you exercise, do you give her an honest answer? How about when she asks what you’ve been eating lately? If you’ve ever stretched the truth, you’re not alone. Between 60 and 80 percent of people surveyed have not been forthcoming with their doctors about information that could be relevant to their health, according to a new study published online in JAMA Network Open. Besides fibbing about diet and...
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Joshua Goldstein and Staffan Qvist: The Argument for Expanding Nuclear Power
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Alex Gray: Treating Violent Crime Like a Disease
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After Gastric Bypass Surgery, Insulin Goes Down Before Weight Loss has Time to Happen
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Steven Strogatz: The Stunning Success of AlphaZero, a Deep-Learning Algorithm, Heralds a New Age of Insight—One that, for Humans, May Not Last Long
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John Locke’s Argument for Limited Government
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Liam Dillon: California Governor Gavin Newsom Threatens to Cut State Funding from Cites that Don’t Approve Enough Housing
FT Alphaville
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America has never worried about financing its priorities
There is nothing inherently socialist about government debt. A government can issue debt to pay for whatever it likes. It can pay to fight a war, to lower taxes for a preferred group, to soften the sharp edges of a recession. The United States has, in fact, issued debt to pay for all of these things. American politicians say that public debt crowds out private investment, that it's unsustainable and will turn the country into Argentina. Or...
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Was AMLOve just EM investors’ summer fling?
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Why the housing ladder doesn’t exist anymore
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Should China’s central bank buy local equities?
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Introducing the yellow-vest indicator
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When fake news purveyors visit Sark
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Further reading
Greg Mankiw
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History of Econ Summer Camp
Those with an interest in the history of economic thought might want to consider this summer program. I have been told that the program is designed primarily for students in graduate programs in economics, though students in graduate school in other fields as well as newly minted PhDs will also be considered.
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Humor from ASSA 2019
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ASSA 2019
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Four Questions for the Year Ahead
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Merry Christmas
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How the Govt Shutdown Affects GDP
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Trumponomics
John Cochrane’s blog
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Volalitily, now the whole thing
An essay at The Hill on what to make of market volatility, from Dec 31. Now that two weeks have passed, I can post the whole thing. I add some graphs too. (Though at the rate things are going any forecast will have been proved wrong in two weeks!)What’s causing the big drop in the stock ...
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Property tax present value
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Krugman on optimal taxes
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Selgin on IOER and TNB
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Deregulation
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Volatility
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Sumner on teaching economics
Peterson Institute
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Will Jeremy Corbyn Rescue Britain from its Brexit Disaster?
The humiliating rebuff dealt to Prime Minister Theresa May over her compromise proposal to leave the European Union, followed by the failure of a "no confidence" vote the next day, has been described as an unprecedented head-snapping turn of events in British politics. In fact, many such hairpin turns occur in European multiparty parliamentary maneuverings. Ironically, this surreal turn of events does present a way out for Britain...
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Adjusted for Aging, the US Employment Rate Continued to Rise Above Its Pre-Recession Level in 2018
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The Fed Continues Its Tightening Campaign
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France’s Deficit Tests the Flexibility of the EU’s Fiscal Rules
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Macron’s Fiscal Easing May Enhance His Stature in Europe
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Abenomics Is Working, Don’t Stop Now
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The French “Yellow Vest” Movement and the (Current) Failure of Representative Democracy
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
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The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman
By Ben S. Bernanke Why was the Great Recession so deep? Certainly, the collapse of the housing bubble was the key precipitating event; falling house prices depressed consumer wealth and spending while leading to sharp reductions in residential construction. However, as I argue in a new paper and blog post, the most damaging aspect of the unwinding bubble was that it ultimately touched off a broad-based financial panic, including runs on...
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Financial panic and credit disruptions in the 2007-09 crisis
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Temporary price-level targeting: An alternative framework for monetary policy
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When growth is not enough
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Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
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How big a problem is the zero lower bound on interest rates?
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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When is more competition bad?
Contrary to popular belief, standard economic theory does not provide a theoretical foundation for the notion that "competition is everywhere and always good." It turns out that legislation that promotes competition among producers may improve consumer welfare. Or it may not. As so many things in economics (and in life), it all depends.I recently came across an interesting paper demonstrating this idea by Ben Lester, Ali Shourideh,...
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Racial Diversity in the Supply of U.S. Econ PhDs
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Does the Fed have a symmetric inflation target?
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Working More for Less
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Does the Floor System Discourage Bank Lending?
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Smart Contracts and Asset Tokenization
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What is the yield curve forecasting?
Macro and Other Market Musings
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Oh, the Horror of a Corridor!
The December 2018 FOMC minutes are out and reveal members continue to discuss the potential long-run frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their discussion as to whether they should keep their current floor operating system or move to a corridor operating system can be illustrated using the figure below: The FOMC likes the floor system since it separates the size of the Fed's balance sheet from the setting of its target...
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How Close is the Fed to a Corridor System?
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A Risk Sharing View of Monetary Policy
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A New Paper on the Fed’s Floor System
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Janet Yellen on NGDPLT
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“Et tu, John Williams?”
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FOMC Preview: “We Have the Nerve to Invert the Curve”
John B. Taylor
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A Different Kind of Revisiting the 2008 Financial Crisis
During the past few months, John Cochrane and I organized a series of workshops on the 2008 financial crisis. Monika Piazzesi, George Shultz, Niall Ferguson, Caroline Hoxby, and Darrell Duffie joined us in making presentations and, along with other colleagues who attended, turned the series into a vigorous and informative discussion. We defined each workshop by topic: Causes, Panic, Recession, and Lessons, and posted papers or summaries by...
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Now They’re All Saying “It’s Time to Write Chapter 14 into Law”
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Three Attributes of a Sustainable Open and Stable Global Order
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Econ 1, Tiger Woods, and the [email protected]
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Stiglitz, Summers, Secular Stagnation, and the Supply Side
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17 Years of Economic and Security Challenges
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A Boot Camp with a Good Policy Workout
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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Why deficits are sustainable and inflation has a life of its own
My new working paper “The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in Overlapping Generations Models” is now available here. The paper, joint with Pawel Zabczyk of the IMF, is also available as CEPR Discussion Paper 13432 and as NBER Working Paper 23445. Here is a teaser from the abstract“We demonstrate that the Fiscal Theory of ...
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Social Progress is not an Illusion
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Don’t Trust the Markets
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Conference at the Bank of England
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Lend Me Your Ears: Friedman and The Role of Financial Policy
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Taming the Lion
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Bulls and Bears: Why central banks should stabilize the stock market
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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New Year questions about the economic outlook
January 1, 2019 – Five questions about the international economic outlook, from Chosun Ilbo (the leading Korean newspaper), and my replies: US president Trump and China’s president Xi agreed to a temporary ceasefire, in which the US suspended to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports next year. How do you see the Trade War is going? How would it affect the global economy next year? The trade war is not going well, for either the United...
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Six right predictions in 2018
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3 Book Recommendations: Openness & Progress
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The Lesson from George H.W. Bush’s Tax Reversal
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Gopinath follows Obstfeld at the IMF, in a great tradition
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China’s Q3 GDP Reportedly Slowed to 6.5%. Or is it 6.4%?
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After NAFTA
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-01-14 14:40:48
Seems to me @biscuit_ersed and everybody else needs their first game-theory lecture to be (1) defect-defect as dominant-strategy Nash equilibrium in prisoner's dilemma, (2) the unraveling equilibrium in finite related prisoner's dilemma, and (3) this first prisoner's dilemma ever played: http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/economists/prisoners_dilemma.html https://twitter.com/biscuit_ersed/status/1084812993509105671... #noted #economics
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Trade and Distribution: A Multisector Stolper-Samuelson Finger Exercise: Hoisted from 2008
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Grasping Reality with at Least Three Hands 2019-01-01 05:33:11
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DeLong Fall 2018 Teaching Schedule
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DeLong Fall 2018 Teaching Schedule
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Development and Security
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Development and Security
Telegraph Blog
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Opinion
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Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
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David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
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Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
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The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
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The Unionist way forward
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Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire
