Leaders
Mark Thoma: Economist View
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Is The Fed Setting Itself Up To Fail In The Next Recession?
Tim Duy: Is The Fed Setting Itself Up To Fail In The Next Recession?: The Federal Reserve remains committed to a December rate hike, persistent low inflation not withstanding. With unemployment below Fed estimates of its longer-run natural rate, most FOMC participants do not need evidence of stronger inflation to justify further rate hikes. Ongoing solid job growth will be sufficient cause for tighter policy, especially in what they...
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Links for 10-16-17
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Paul Krugman: Let Them Eat Paper Towels
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Links for 10-13-17
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Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy
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Links for 10-11-17
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Fed Watch: Kevin Warsh, Very Serious Person
Paul Krugman
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Subsidies, Spite, and Supply Chains
As many people have been pointing out, Trump’s decision to cancel cost-sharing subsidies for health plans is a rare policy trifecta: it raises prices, reduces the number of people with insurance, and costs taxpayers money. Nor is there evidence of any political strategy worthy of the name. This is policy driven by sheer spite: Trump can’t get what he wants from Congress, so he’s going to punish innocent people. There are many lessons to be...
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Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies
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Friday Night Music: Moron Edition
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Puerto Rico, Trump and Taxes
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Rationality and Rabbit Holes
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The Schlock Of The New
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The Transfer Problem and Tax Incidence (Insanely Wonkish)
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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Why John Taylor might be a good choice for Fed chair
I’ve done a few posts expressing opposition to Kevin Warsh being nominated to chair the Fed. Now there are rumors that John Taylor’s stock is rising: Stanford University economist John Taylor, a candidate for Federal Reserve chairman, made a favorable impression on President Donald Trump after an hour-long interview at the White House last week, several people familiar with the matter said. Former Fed board governor Kevin Warsh has meanwhile...
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The crybabies who blamed economists for not predicting the financial crisis
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No matter how cynical I get, I can’t keep up
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Warsh on fiscal and monetary policy
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Define “cause”
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2.9%! (Good news for Yellen)
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Elections matter less than you think
Noah Smith
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Defending Thaler from the guerrilla resistance
So, Richard Thaler won the Nobel Prize, which is pretty awesome. If you've read Thaler's memoir, you'll know that it was a long, hard, contentious fight for him to get his ideas accepted by the mainstream. And even though Thaler is now a Nobelist and has been the AEA president - i.e., he has completely convinced the commanding heights of the econ establishment that behavioral econ is a crucial addition to the canon - resistance still pops up...
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Handwaving on health care
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Speech on campus: A reply to Brad DeLong
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What we didn’t get
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The margin of stupid
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a16z podcast on trade
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Realism in macroeconomic modeling
Project Syndicate
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Will Palestinian Reconciliation Revive the Two-State Solution?
If Israel doesn't accept the deep concessions it will have to make for peace, the recent reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah will not mark the beginning of the end of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It will merely be the start of a new chapter. RAMALLAH – When representatives of the two major Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, signed a new reconciliation agreement in Cairo on October 12, the focus was not on those...
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The US Cannot Go It Alone On Iran
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Trump Is Strengthening Iran’s Radicals
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The Iran Nuclear Deal Is Bad – and Necessary
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Understanding the Secessionist Surge
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Hurricanes’ Unnatural Toll
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The Economic Case for China’s Belt and Road
Cyril Morong: Dangerous Economist
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How Odysseus Started The Industrial Revolution
Factory work may have been a commitment device to get everyone to work hard. Odysseus tying himself to the mast was also a commitment device. Dean Karlan, Yale economics professor explains how commitment devices work: "This idea of forcing one’s own future behavior dates back in our culture at least to Odysseus, who had his crew tie him to the ship’s mast so he wouldn’t be tempted by the sirens; and Cortes, who burned his ships to show...
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Price-gouging laws can backfire
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Want to be happy and successful? Try compassion
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The preference for partners of the same education has significantly increased for white individuals
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Some Good News On Median Income And Poverty In The U.S.
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Texas Price Gouging Laws
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Another Semester Has Started
Miles Corak: Economics for public policy
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The Canada Child Benefit is an important innovation in cash benefits to families with children
Tags child poverty, National Academies of Sciences Engineering Medicine The Canada Child Benefit is an important innovation in cash benefits to families with children July 1, 2017 The Canada Child Benefit offers a policy option that the United States should consider in pursuing a goal to reduce child poverty by half. The commitment to address child poverty has waxed and waned in Canada since an all-party...
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Poor children are twice as likely to grow up to be poor adults in some Canadian communities than in others
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I have a new job, and if you want to know more read this post
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Tony Atkinson has died
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I’ve been blogging for five years, and here are my 10 favourite posts
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Can you change your mind about inequality? Read my just published paper
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How The Great Gatsby Curve got its name
Dani Rodrik’s weblog
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What’s Wrong With Our System Of Global Trade And Finance?
That is what John Judis wanted to talk to me about, and we did. This over at TPM is what came out. By the way, Judis' book on populism is great. It makes an important distinction between right-wing and left-wing populism, a distinction that I have used as well.
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Why Did So Many Cheer Turkey’s Democracy While It Was Dying?
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Prudential regulation, capital controls, and second-best
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Trade, redistribution, and social dumping
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Dismal thoughts about the Turkish referendum
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Ariel Rubinstein on Economics Rules
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A Foreword to Kari Polanyi Levitt
Global Economic Intersection
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Some Economics of Immigration
By Timothy Taylor, Conversable Economist The Fall 2017 issue of the Cato Journal includes 11 accessible papers on "The Economics of Immigration." Here, I'll mention some insights that especially caught my eye from two of the papers. Follow up: Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. One of the most powerful concerns about immigration of low-skill workers is that even if it...
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Global Value Chains and the US Missing Exports
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Slackers: How the Multiplier Works in the Real World
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Uncle Sam’s Unfunded Promises
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The Natural Rate of Interest Does Not Exist
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Global Retirement Reality
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Why Thomas Piketty is Wrong About Inflation and Interest Rates
Casey Mulligan: Supply and Demand
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How government employment can undermine democracy
Citizens in a democracy can criticize their government and its laws without government reprisal. But what happens when your government is not only the enforcer of law, but also your boss? Your boss, of course, is less willing to have you in his employ if you are speaking out against him. An example from last weekend: I spoke to a young woman who was shortly due to sit examinations to become a judge. She thought there was a good chance...
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Read here to feel the Joy of Voting
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How many people get insurance through SHOP?
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Employer Penalty Amount Finalized
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Which people were rescued from Communism by military conflict?
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Machine proves Paul Krugman wrong about the recession
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Tax Reform on TV
Bradley A. Hansen’s Blog
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New History of Capitalism meets the History of Economic Thought
Jonathan Levy has a paper forthcoming in Business History Review, “Capital as Process and the History of Capitalism.” If you have access to the journal it is available on First View. He attempts to develop a definition of capital that is useful for the study of capitalism. I should be grading papers right now so I will make this quick. Unfortunately, it bears many of the hallmarks of some of the most celebrated work in the new history of...
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I Blame Foner
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Economic History to Read, Listen and Watch
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Business History and the Great Divergence
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Steinbaum on Public Choice
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Trust Company Failures and Institutional Change in New York, 1875-1925
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Some recent history and economic history
Managerial Econ
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Perverse incentives in soccer
Presumably, the primary goal of any sport governing body is to provide adequate incentive for competitors to do battle on the field (court, pitch, etc.), each striving for victory. Things don't always turn out that way. My all time favorite example of the strangest (incentive-driven) spectacle in sport is from the 1994 Shell Caribbean Cup involving a match between Barbados and Grenada. A very poorly-conceived (though well-intentioned)...
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Pricing Political Risk – Catalunya
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Keeping Assets in Low Valued Uses – Jones Act Edition
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Repost: Bargaining exam question
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Capital / Labor Substittuion
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Rivals Horizontally – Cozy Vertically
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Play the repeated prisoners’ dilemma
Donald Marron
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Eight Thoughts on Business Tax Reform
On Tuesday, I had the chance to testify before the Senate Finance Committee on business tax reform. Here are my opening remarks. They are a bit on the glum side, emphasizing challenges and constraints lawmakers face. Moving from optimistic rhetoric about tax reform to legislative reality is hard. You can find my full testimony here. America’s business tax system is needlessly complex and economically harmful. Thoughtful reform can make our...
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The 3-2-1 on Economic Growth: Hope for 3, Plan for 2, Pray it isn’t 1
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Outside Research Organizations Can’t Replace CBO’s Budget Team
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Can Trump Make Mexico Pay for the Wall?
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Taxing carried interest just right
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Britain Builds a Better Soda Tax
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Budgeting for Federal Lending Programs Is Still a Mess
David Flynn: Barter is Evil
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Barter is Evil 2017-10-12 03:21:17
Sorry for the lack of blogging but I was a speaker at the Minneapolis Fed Regional Economic Conditions Conference this Tuesday (link to presentations here). My slides are available from the Fed site as well. I thought I would highlight a few things that got the attention of the audience. First, in this post I highlight oil production, which continues to be high in North Dakota. It is pretty clear that we are down from the peak of oil...
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Who knew tax cuts would be so difficult?
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Victory lap (of sorts)
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Recent Income Trends for Four Counties in North Dakota
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Yield Curve Issues
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FocusEconomics Post: Tulipmania and Crises
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More on North Dakota Wages—Standardized Comparisons
Josh Hendrickson: Everyday Economist
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Economists Say the Darndest Things, Gold Standard Edition
I often hear economists say things like “look, the vast majority of economists think the gold standard is terrible.” I have no idea if this is true (many economists outside of macro likely have no opinion on the gold standard), but it is incredibly misleading even if we believe the quote to be true. The reason I say that this quote is misleading is that whether or not the gold standard is a good or bad institutional regime depends on the...
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Free Banking and the Friedman Rule
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Some Myths About Interest on Reserves
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The Bullionist Controversy
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On Why It is Important to Distinguish Between Consumption and Expenditures When Testing the Permanent Income Hypothesis
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Are Helicopter Drops a Fiscal Operation?
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Money and Banking
Leisure of the Theory Class
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Entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurship September 27, 2017 in economics, education, Uncategorized My students often use me as a sounding board for their new ventures. A sign that the modern University could pass for a hedge fund with classrooms. The request brings a chuckle as it always reminds me of my first exposure to entrepreneurial activity. It happened in the most unlikeliest of places as well as times. A public (i.e. private) school in...
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Miserly Millennium Prizes
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Medawar’s Test
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Russian Meddling, Fake News & Lemons
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CS Referencing Conventions
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In My Mailbox Today
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Suicide Lotteries
Timothy Taylor: Conversable Economist
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Learning, Not Just Schooling: World Development Report 2018
The World Development Report 2018, one of the flagship reports of the World Bank, focuses on the theme "LEARNING To Realize Education's Promise." The thrust of the report is that school enrollments are up dramatically in developing countries across the world, but in a disturbingly high number of cases, the larger numbers of children attending school are not leading to a similarly high increase in actual student learning.For example,...
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Independent Workers and Policy: Krueger’s Moynihan Lecture
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The Lost US Lead in Education
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Snapshots of the Global Robotics Industry
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Formal Jobs and Decent Work
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Richard Thaler: The 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics
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Interview with Ricardo Hausmann: Venezuela’s Economy
Econbrowser
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Guest Contribution: “10 Lessons for China 10 years after the subprime financial crisis “
Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Alessandro Rebucci, Associate Professor, and Jiatao Liu, at the Carey School of Business at Johns Hopkins University. This month marked the beginning of the 10th year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the most acute phase of the U.S. subprime financial crisis. The United States is still coping with the consequences of the ensuing great recession, and its...
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A Curiously Non-Quantitative Assessment of Deregulation Effects on Economic Growth
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Two Pictures from the September Employment Situation
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EconoFact: “Are Global Imbalances a Source of Concern?”
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Mass Shooting Casualties in America as of October 2
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Return of the Tooth Fairies
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At Least Nero Fiddled
Tim Harford: Undercover Economist
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Echoes of a bygone age show Britain losing its sense of direction
Echoes of a bygone age show Britain losing its sense of direction “It’s that 1970s vibe again,” a senior colleague tells me. This being the Financial Times I presume he is picking up echoes of a bygone economic and political milieu, rather than gleefully anticipating the re-emergence of flares or X-rated movie theatres. Either way, it is hard to venture a firm opinion on the matter: as late as the 1990s, I was still at school. My...
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Why Thaler’s Nobel is a well-deserved nudge for behavioural economics
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Behavioural economics books to enjoy
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True diversity means looking for the knife in a drawer of spoons
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Messy – paperback publication day US
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When doing nothing is the best option
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Books about how to see into the future
Owen Zidar
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Who were the top taxpayers in 1923?
From page 71 of Daniel Marcin’s “The Revenue Act of 1924: Publicity, Tax Cuts, Response” div{float:left;margin-right:10px;} div.wpmrec2x div.u > div:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0px;} ]]> Advertisements
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Trump won in counties that lost jobs to China and Mexico
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The Effect of Pension Income on Elderly Earnings: Evidence from Social Security and Full Population Data
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Why Retire When You Can Work? Hours are way up for elderly workers
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Zip-code Economics
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Financial firms make large share of pass-through income
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Pass-through income and the top 1%
Microeconomic Insights
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Bargaining with asymmetric information: an empirical study of plea negotiations
By far, most US criminal cases are resolved before trial through plea bargain agreements between the defendant and the prosecutor. In return for a guilty plea, the prosecutor reduces or dismisses some of the charges against the defendant and/or recommends the court assign a relatively short sentence. In 2001, for example, 94 percent of federal cases were resolved by plea bargain (Fischer, 2003). Similarly, in 2000, such deals accounted for 95...
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Gains from trade: evidence from nineteenth century Japan
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Gender quotas and the crisis of the mediocre man
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Opportunity and access: how legal work status affects immigrant crime rates
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Does arbitrage always improve market efficiency? Theory and evidence from sequential markets for electricity
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Charter schools do more than teach to the test: evidence from Boston
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Health insurance competition: effects on premiums, hospital rates, and welfare
Carola Binder: Quantitative Ease
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Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy
I had the pleasure of attending “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy IV” at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. I highly recommend viewing the panels and materials online. The two-day conference left me wondering what it actually means to “rethink” macro. The conference title refers to rethinking macroeconomic policy, not macroeconomic research or analysis, but of course these are related. Adam Posen’s opening remarks expressed...
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An Inflation Expectations Experiment
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Consumer Forecast Revisions: Is Information Really so Sticky?
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New Argument for a Higher Inflation Target
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The Low Misery Dilemma
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Macro in the Econ Major and at Liberal Arts Colleges
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Labor Market Conditions Index Discontinued
Economonitor
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Current Account Deficits and Safe Assets
The International Monetary Fund has issued its External Sector Report for 2017, and among its key findings: “Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016…” The U,S. continues to record the largest deficit, $451.7 billion, which is equal in value to 2.4% of U.S. GDP. The continuing deficits contribute to the increase in the ...
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Why Lebanon’s New Government Needs a New Economic Model
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A New Banking Crisis?
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John Maynard Keynes and Effective Macroeconomic Policy
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Can Uganda Step Up to New Economic Challenges?
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New Pragmatism: Economics and Economic Policy for the Future
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Transformative Changes in World Energy Production and Trade
Offsetting Behaviour
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A Wellington City Deal?
Newsroom's Shane Cowlishaw reported yesterday that Wellington City has been talking with central government about either a variant on the Manchester city accord, or a Special Economic Zone. What would be in the deal isn't known - the OIA did not provide many details. It noted that Wellington would like a city deal following the UK examples, or a Special Economic Zone to allow different regulatory settings for Wellington, and a revenue-sharing...
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Junk science
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Restrictions on foreign investment – some context
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The Natural
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Poverty policy’s terrible tradeoffs.
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The Battle of Athens
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Business school structure and performance
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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Psychology and behaviorism in *Blade Runner 2049*
From my email, by Jason N. Doctor: You provide a good perspective on Blade Runner 2049. In addition to the biblical references and themes, I was also impressed by the psychology and philosophy of mind references: 1) After every event where he eliminates a replicant, “K” must take a cognitive interference test similar to those used most recently by Sendhil Mullianathan and Eldar Shafir to study the effects of economic scarcity on...
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Monday assorted links
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Decertifying the Iran deal
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Understanding the extent and predictors of college late departure
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*The Hard Thing About Hard Things*
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Sunday assorted links
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Is the World Bank lending too much to China?
Jared Bernstein: On the economy
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I got issues with the new CEA report
First, full disclosure: Kevin Hassett, the chair of Trump’s CEA, is an old friend, a good dude, and a guy I’m happy to see in this prominent post. But even as I endorsed him for the job, I publically worried about one area of his research where his claims go way beyond the evidence and ignore the counter-evidence. That area is the impact of tax cuts on growth, jobs, and particularly wages and incomes. Thus, CEA’s new report on the...
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Trump’s two-step: Health care and fiscal sabotage
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Tax versus fax
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Data note re WaPo wage story
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Two must read opeds on the Trump tax plan
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Thanks to Harvey and Irma, payrolls fell last month, but underlying job market remains strong
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Increasing wealth inequality, the ill-begotten tax plan, and some potentially good news!
Simon Wren-Lewis
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How Neoliberals weaponise the concept of an ideal market
This new bookby Colin Crouch will perplex many on the left who simply believe neoliberalism has to be overthrown. Indeed the author starts his book by talking about the Grenfell Tower disaster, which he along with many others believe epitomises the failings of neoliberalism. Yet he writes that the book“is not a contribution to the demonology of neoliberalism, but an attempt at a nuanced account. Only in that way can we assess its capacity for...
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The impact of austerity in the UK
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The myth of No Deal
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Economists: too much ideology, too little craft
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The OBR, productivity and policy failures
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Why is MMT so popular?
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A Labour run on Sterling?
Free Exchange Economist
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Richard Thaler’s work demonstrates why economics is hard
RICHARD THALER has won the Nobel prize in economic sciences this year for his contributions to behavioural economics. It's a well-deserved prize and a clarifying one, as far as economics is concerned. For a very long time, economists hoped to treat individuals a bit like particles in physics, whose activity can be described by a few well-understood rules, which allow researchers to model and understand complex interactions between particles....
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The Nobel in economics rewards a pioneer of “nudges”
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Bitcoin is fiat money, too
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The case against shrinking the Fed’s balance-sheet
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Is there a wage growth puzzle in America?
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The hubris of ten-year budgets
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Podcast: Goodbye, Benito
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
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Soldiers of Fortune goes to Hollywood
There are six identical men, who must choose one of them to do an unpleasant job. They could hold an auction and pay one of them to volunteer to do the job. But if they have diminishing marginal utility of consumption, they will prefer instead to roll a die to decide which one of them does the job. Their expected utility is higher. If the job is unpleasant because it has a risk of death, then state-contingent preferences (the marginal utility...
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Regional disparities in Canadian economic growth: Theory and evidence
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The Devil You Know vs The Market For Lemons
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Health Spending and System Characteristics in Canada and Spain
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Two Ways Central Banks can do Monetary Policy even if Bitcoin totally replaces Dollars as Medium of Exchange
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Central Bank Communication and the Term Structure
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Migration, Wages, and Corner Solutions
Miles Kimball
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Matthew Shapiro, Martha Bailey and Tilman Borgers on the Economics Job Market Rumors Website
Disgusted with the widespread misogyny, racism and more random viciousness on Economics Job Market Rumors that is becoming more widely appreciated because of Alice Wu's research, I wrote "Signalling When Everyone Knows about Last-Place Aversion: An Application to Economics Job Market Rumors."As an Emeritus Professor of the University of Michigan Economics Department, I am still on its email lists. I am grateful to Matthew Shapiro,...
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Kim Gittleson: Where are all the women in economics?
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Travis Bradberry: 10 Habits All Genuinely Confident People Share
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Jordan Rosenfeld: The Scientific Link Between Boredom and Creativity
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Mandë Holford and Lindsay Portnoy: Children Should Be Playing More Games in the Classroom. Here’s Why
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Mitch Prinstein on Status and Likability
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Psychological Safety vs. Fear: Many People Perform Better in Response to Carrots than Sticks
FT Alphaville
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Further reading
Elsewhere on Tuesday,— Meet the Sacklers!— Trump’s base buys into renewables.— 666 on 5th: Kushner’s imperilled tower plan.— Welcome to the fear-based investment bubble.— Or are investors blinded by their emotions?— The Long Term Stock Exchange— Dear Jamie, Please hail the a new asset class that enables decentralized applications.— Is Malta a gangsta state, sitting inside the EU?...
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Markets Live: Monday, 16th October, 2017
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Opening Quote: Aramco exposes Gulf in governance rhetoric
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Further reading
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Thought for the weekend
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Markets Live: Friday, 13th October, 2017
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Ready for a SpaceX IPO?
Greg Mankiw
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A Talk from the CEA Chair
Kevin Hassett speaks at the Tax Policy Center.
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What I am reading
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More on the Economics of Healthcare
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Still #1
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How to Get People to Get Along
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A Reading List
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What I did last night
John Cochrane’s blog
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Cowen on Fed Chair
Tyler Cowen has a good thought on the Fed chair question. The next chair has to be a good politician, in all the positive senses of that word, more than a good technocrat:The Fed has functioned as a technocracy for a long time, but might the future bring a Fed that is irrevocably split between ...
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Atlas on Health
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VAT — full text
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Tax Reform
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Health Care Policy Isn’t so Hard
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A paper, and publishing
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Duet Redux
Peterson Institute
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Stumbling Blocks for Brazil’s Economic Recovery as Election Looms
Against all odds, the Brazilian economy is gradually recovering. Despite the country’s hapless regime, the enormous corruption scandal, and the substantial fiscal challenges ahead, Brazil has emerged from its worst-ever economic recession, responsible for a GDP per capita drop of more than 10 percent. Authorities and markets have been celebrating these recent trends, as they expect greater economic traction into 2018 will help elect a...
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The Economic Cost of Weakening Capital Requirements for Large Banks
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Yes, the German election has created a problem for euro area reform.
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The Fed Buys into Secular Stagnation
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Brexit Readiness Score
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The Economics Job Market Rumors Site Needs to Clean Up Its Act
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Initial Coin Offerings: Crowdfunding in a regulatory vacuum
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
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Temporary price-level targeting: An alternative framework for monetary policy
By Ben S. BernankeLow nominal interest rates, low inflation, and slow economic growth pose challenges to central bankers. In particular, with estimates of the long-run equilibrium level of the real interest rate quite low, the next recession may occur at a time when the Fed has little room to cut short-term rates. As I have written previously and recent research has explored, problems associated with the zero-lower bound (ZLB) on interest...
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When growth is not enough
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Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
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How big a problem is the zero lower bound on interest rates?
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Why Dodd-Frank’s orderly liquidation authority should be preserved
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Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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A monetary-fiscal theory of inflation
On December 17, 2015, the FOMC has raised its policy rate (IOER) from 25bp to 50bp. It has since raised the IOER rate three more times to 1.25%. Many on the committee seem convinced that further rate hikes are needed (in addition to actions designed to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, which is already shrinking relative to the size of the economy). What is the source of this enthusiasm for monetary policy tightening, given that the unemployment...
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Where’s the inflation?
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The St. Louis Fed’s Macroeconomic Outlook
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Sectoral and Occupational Trends in the U.S. Labor Market
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Fiscal over monetary policy?
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A reply to Lawrence White
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A public finance case for keeping the Fed’s balance sheet large
Macro and Other Market Musings
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From a Floor System to A Corridor System
So I was looking at the Fed's 2016 annual report and was able to construct the following chart: Several observations from this figure. First, the sharp growth in the Fed's income is unsurprising as it is a natural consequence of the Fed's QE programs. These large scale asset purchase programs expanded the Fed's assets from around $900 billion in late 2008 to $4.5 trillion today. Moreover, the Fed's portfolio has changed from being...
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The Future Path of the Monetary Base and Why It Matters
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The Political Economy of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
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Is Larry Summers a Fan of Nominal GDP Level Targeting?
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Will Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet Matter?
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Monetary Regime Change: Mission Accomplished
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The IOER Debate Redux
John B. Taylor
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New Results on International Monetary Policy Presented at the Swiss National Bank
This week I gave the Swiss National Bank’s Annual Karl Brunner Lecture in Zurich, and I thank Thomas Jordan who introduced me and the hundreds of central bankers, bankers, and academics who filled the big auditorium. Karl was a brilliant, innovative economist who thought seriously about both policy ideas and institutions. For the lecture, I focused on ideas and institutions for international monetary policy. Since Karl died in 1989, we can...
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Still Learning From Milton Friedman: Version 3.0
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Debate Over the Very Principles of Economics
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Economics 1 Online. No Charge.
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A Whole New Section on Policy Rules in Fed’s Report
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Seeing Through the Fog of Federal Budget Forecasting
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Macro Model Comparison Research Takes Off
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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My Interview with Cloud Yip: Part 1:
A couple of months ago, I had the pleasure of speaking with Cloud Yip. Cloud is running a series of interviews under the title of “Where is the General Theory of the 21st Century” and I was privileged to be included in that series. The interview was published in its entirety a couple of weeks ...
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And the 2017 Economics Nobel Prize goes to …
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Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve
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On Refereeing: Do we have Confidence in our Economic Institutions?
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Where’s the Inflation?: Where’s the Beef?
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Indeterminacy, the Belief Function and Reinventing IS-LM
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Behavioural New-Keynesian Macroeconomics
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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The VIX is too low!
September 30, 2017 — During most of this year, the VIX — the Volatility Index on The Chicago Board Options Exchange — has been at the lowest levels of the last ten years. It recently dipped below 9, even lower than March 2007, just before the sub-prime mortgage crisis. It looks as though, once again, investors do not sufficiently appreciate how risky the world is today. Known colloquially as the “fear index,” the VIX measures financial...
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Explaining Dodd-Frank
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The Signal/Noise Ratio in US North Korea Policy
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Deal-maker Trump Can’t Deal
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Why Republicans Can’t Reform Health Care
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The Sugar Swamp
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The Case against Subsidizing Housing Debt
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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Should-Read: Letter in Support of the Nomination of Kevin Hassett to be Chairman of the Council of Economic…
Should-Read: What were they thinking of, signing this? Wasn’t Kevin Hassett’s behavior since 100% predictable? Letter in Support of the Nomination of Kevin Hassett to be Chairman of the Council of Economic…: “Alan J. Auerbach… Martin N. Baily… Dean Baker… …Robert J. Barro… Ben S. Bernanke… Jared Bernstein… Alan S. Blinder… Michael J. Boskin… Arthur C. Brooks… John H. Cochrane… Karen Dynan… Janice Eberly… Douglas W. Elmendorf… Martin S....
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Should-Read: CPPC: Victory in California! Drug Price Transparency Bill Becomes Law
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Should-Read: Jay Shambaugh et al.: Thirteen Facts About Wage Growth
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Must-Read: Danny Quah: When Open Societies Fail
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Monday DeLong Smackdown Watch:
Still Looking for a High Quality DeLong Smackdown Over the Past Month (or Earlier)Kevin Hassett Edition -
Should-Read: David Anderson: State Approaches to Handling CSR Uncertainty for 2018 Premiums
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Should-Read: Paul Krugman: Subsidies, Spite, and Supply Chains
Telegraph Blog
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Opinion
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Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
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David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
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Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
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The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
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The Unionist way forward
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Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire
