Leaders
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-04-20 04:24:16
.... Everyone in the aviation community wants an airplane that flies as simply and as naturally as possible. That means that conditions should not change markedly, there should be no significant roll, no significant pitch change, no nothing when the pilot is adding power, lowering the flaps, or extending the landing gear.... The 737 Max... violated that most ancient of aviation canons and probably violated the certification criteria of the...
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-04-20 04:00:58
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Cosma Shalizi (2011): Dives, Lazarus, and Alice: Weekend Reading
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“Unexpected Convergers” since World War II
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How Big a Problem Is the Malapportionment of the Senate?
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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings… (April 18, 2019)
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-04-18 03:50:20
Casey Mulligan: Supply and Demand
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Lou Dobbs knew what we were doing
[embedded content]Jump to 14:12
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Remembering Alan Krueger
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Mathematica advertising economics tools
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Inflation has little to do with the Unemployment Rate
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How Can I Get Introduced to Automated Reasoning for Economics and Statistics?
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Monopolies are unhealthy, but high taxes make the disease worse
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NYTimes Packs Five Ungrounded Economic Opinions in Two Sentences
Cyril Morong: Dangerous Economist
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What ends expansions? (or what causes recessions according to Alan Blinder and Austan Goolsbee)
See The Obama-Trump Economic Boom: The current expansion may soon be America’s longest, and neither inflation nor tariffs are likely to stop it by Alan S. Blinder. He is a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. Excerpts: "A common answer in the modern era is that the Federal Reserve clamps down to fight inflation. But today inflation remains quiescent despite...
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What Did The Justice Department warn the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences about?
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As Costs Skyrocket, More U.S. Cities Stop Recycling
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How Odysseus Started The Industrial Revolution
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Is There Economic And Political Meaning In “The Wizard of Oz?”
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The World Is Getting Quietly, Relentlessly Better
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Some History of Insurance
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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Is the ZLB an economic or legal constraint?
The so-called zero-lower-bound (ZLB) plays a prominent role in modern (and even older) macroeconomic theories. It is often introduced in a paper or at conference as a fact of life -- an unavoidable property of the physical environment, like gravity. But is it correct to view it in this way? Or is the ZLB better thought of as legal constraint--something that can potentially be circumvented by policy?The Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act...
Read more » -
The Chicago Booth Survey on MMT
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Sustainable deficits
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Is Neo-Fisherism Nuts?
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When is more competition bad?
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Racial Diversity in the Supply of U.S. Econ PhDs
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Does the Fed have a symmetric inflation target?
David Flynn: Barter is Evil
Economonitor
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For Some Ag Companies, Pesticides Are Already on Their Way Out
As the EPA works to tie state regulators' hands, private industry is working on its own to limit pesticide use. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently announced plans to limit states’ abilities to tighten restrictions on federal pesticides, according to Politico, alarming state regulators. The EPA had discreetly indicated at the end of March that it was preparing to override states’ efforts to enact stricter pesticides regulations,...
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Inside Morocco’s Economic Transformation
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Global economy at a delicate moment, says the IMF
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COMMERCIAL BANK MONEY AND SEIGNIORAGE POWER
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New Challenges Faced by the Bretton Woods Institutions
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DIGITAL CASH AND THE MACROECONOMY
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WHICH EXCHANGE RATE REGIME? CREDIBILITY AND EXCHANGE RATE NEUTRALITY
FT Alphaville
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The IMF’s Tobias Adrian on stability
Tobias Adrian, formerly of the New York Fed, runs the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund. Brendan and Colby sat down with him after publication of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report. They talked about collateralised loan obligations, of course, but also about China and how the US faces risks just like any other country when hot capital flows in.
Read more » -
Of Notre Dame burning and signs of the times
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Creditors are coming for Venezuela’s assets
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Bonus: IMF’s Vitor Gaspar on debt
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Casting call for FT Alphaville’s Vaudeville!
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Further reading
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Corbyn’s threat to investment-bank socialism
Global Economic Intersection
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What Do IQ Tests Really Measure?
Posted on 18 April 2019 by Philip Pilkington Fixing the Economists Article of the WeekIQ. What is it all about? In our society it is generally seen as a sort of symbol of social status. So much so that some join groups like Mensa in order to hang out with other high IQ people while others sign up for dating websites that are supposedly geared toward your IQ level.Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social...
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Japanified World Ahead
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A Great GDP Doesn’t Solve Retirement Crisis
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Crucial Issues In Foreign Trade
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Failure Of Trump Tax Cuts
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Clarity And Obfuscation In The Use Of Mathematics For Economic Reasoning
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Capitalism Gone Wild
John Cochrane’s blog
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Perpetually wrong forecasts
Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank sends along the following fascinating graphsThe titles seem a little off. Yes, the market is expecting rate cuts (forward rate) but the market has been exactly wrong about everything for 10 years (and longer) first forecasting the recovery that never came, then forecasting much slower interest rate rises than actually ...
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Meer On Minimum Wage
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Operating Procedures
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Central Bank Independence
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Concentration increasing?
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Less listing
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Monopoly in history
Leisure of the Theory Class
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The game theory of the electoral threshold
The game theory of the electoral threshold April 7, 2019 in Uncategorized Israel is holding an election Tuesday. It’s a multi-party system in Israel, based on proportional representation, and the main battle is between two blocs of parties. We call them the left-wing bloc and the right-wing bloc, and civics textbooks will tell you that this division is about policy: the Arab-Israeli conflict, economics and the role of religion. But...
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Institute for Wow
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New Linear Algebra Division
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A New Business Idea
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Arms and Projects
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Weber’s proof of Gittins Index Theorem
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Samuelson on Linear Programming
Microeconomic Insights
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How do American families spend food benefits?
Summary The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the largest of the federal government’s 15 nutrition assistance programs operating in the United States, giving approximately 40 million Americans benefits that can be used to purchase food for at-home consumption. Following decades of life as the Food Stamp Program, the program was renamed SNAP in 2008 in legislation...
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The incentives of centralized school admissions systems
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Tax evasion and inequality
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The costs of public sector patronage: lessons from the British Empire
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Measuring the impact of US state taxation on business activity
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Bias in cable news
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Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining?
Miles Kimball
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Neil Lewis Jr.: Has Gender Stereotype Threat Declined?
4/12. Those concerns, by the way, still come to mind when giving talks at predominantly White academic conferences. So the notion that such concerns could be cognitively distracting enough to undermine performance made/makes a lot of sense to me, and that so many studies found
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Deeper Negative Rates Can Ward Off Secular Stagnation
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Beatrice Cherrier: Is Economics Ideological?
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Kevin D. Hall and Juen Guo: Why it is so Hard to Lose Weight and so Hard to Keep it Off
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Nicholas Huntington-Klein on How to Teach the First Econometrics Class (Twitter Thread)
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A Liberal Turn in the Mormon Church
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John Bruner: The Latest Technology isn’t Enough—You Need the Business Model to Go with It
Offsetting Behaviour
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Howling at the Treasury moon
I like the headline that The National Business Review put on this week's column. It isn't online yet; I've a few snippets below: Big organisations get up to a lot of stuff that looks pretty silly from the outside – and even from the inside. Corporate retreats with ridiculous team-building exercises. Awkward social functions. Corporate family picnics when you would all rather prefer to be out with your own friends.Anybody who has ever worked in...
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He’s a failure on top of everything else.
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Easton on schools
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Continued census whoas
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A bleg for knowledge about knowledge
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A compassionate Treasury
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Census Whoas
Peterson Institute
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Europe’s New Leaders Need to Think Now about the Next Economic Downturn
Europe has rebounded nicely, if unevenly, after its last double-dip recession by relying on the monetary stimulus of the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks. Today, however, Europe faces a potential economic iceberg when its next recession hits, though this issue seems strangely absent from the debate over who should run Europe’s major institutions later this year. Because the ECB and other European central banks will not be...
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How the Brexit Extension Could Scramble British and European Political Party Fortunes
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For the United States, More Digital Privacy Would Mean More National Security
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Changes Are Coming to the Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy
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Rethinking the Phillips Curve: Inflation May Rise Modestly Next Year
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The Troubling Rise of Economic Nationalism in the European Union
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The Fed Is on Hold
Simon Wren-Lewis
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Why the European Elections will be painful to watch for some Remainers
In theory the forthcoming European Elections on 23rd May should be an opportunity for Remainers to translate the clear majority for staying in the EU that we see in the polls into actual votes. Remain has beenahead of Leave since the summer of 2017, and recent majorities have been above 5%. Indeed somein the smaller anti-Brexit parties have been suggesting exactly this: the EU elections should be about Remaining rather than Leaving....
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Why have pundits got politics so wrong since 2015?
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The right wing partisan media is the elephant in the room in discussions of mainstream politics and far right extremism
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Why are we in this political mess?
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If the Tories lose an election before we leave, Brexit is unlikely to happen.
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Will Brexit make austerity worse?
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Left behind movements do not just reflect deindustrialisation, but also geography, inequality and lack of representation.
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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Families and social networks don’t always help stroke victims
A recent study in Nature Communications shows that when stroke patients are surrounded by close connections like their immediate family, they are less likely to get to the hospital in time for treatment, compared to patients with looser social connections. Amar Dhand is a neurologist at Harvard Medical School with a PhD in sociology from Oxford who studies the relationship between social connections and health. His team surveyed 175 stroke...
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Saturday assorted links
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Compensating differentials
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*An Economist Walks into a Brothel*
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Kevin Williamson reviews *Big Business*
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What should I ask Russ Roberts?
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Friday assorted links
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
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Guest Post: Comparing Technolgical Change in the Health and Taxi Industries
Well, here is a guest post forwarded to me by Ruolz Ariste - a colleague whom I originally met during my annual interactions with the CIHI and with whom I have co-authored. Ruolz Ariste is currently pursuing a PhD in Industrial Relations in a program run by run jointly by Université Laval and Université du Québec en Outaouais. Enjoy. Comment Ruolz AristeResearcher, U. Laval and UQOIndustrial Relations and Health Economics(Le français...
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Interest Rates and Money Growth; Two Types of Central Bank
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Do Chinese Canadians struggle in the labour market?
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Breaking up the quarter million dollar club
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Canada’s Gross Domestic Income and trading gains: An update and estimates for the provinces
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Hopefully, Tomorrow Won’t Be Yesterday
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The Federal Debt of the United States, 1791 to 2018: A Presidential Ranking
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
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Evaluating lower-for-longer policies: Temporary price-level targeting
By Ben S. Bernanke Despite a long and sustained recovery from the Great Recession, a number of factors—including an aging population, slow productivity growth, and subdued inflation—continue to exert downward pressure on U.S. interest rates. It seems likely that even when monetary policy is at a neutral setting, neither restraining nor stimulating the economy, interest rates will remain significantly lower than in recent decades. One...
Read more » -
The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman
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Financial panic and credit disruptions in the 2007-09 crisis
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Temporary price-level targeting: An alternative framework for monetary policy
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When growth is not enough
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Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
Free Exchange Economist
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Why scan-reading artificial intelligence is bad news for radiologists
THE better artificial intelligence gets, the greater the popular concern that smart machines will soon usher in a labour-market catastrophe. In Chandler, Arizona, Americans can at this moment hail a ride from a car without a human at the wheel. Web users can read high-quality, instant translations of foreign-language newspapers—no professional translation service needed. And developers of machine-learning technologies are moving rapidly to...
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Why the Fed is likely to raise rates, despite low inflation
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Religious competition was to blame for Europe’s witch hunts
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Donald Trump’s budget ignores what is ailing American workers
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Richard Thaler’s work demonstrates why economics is hard
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The case against shrinking the Fed’s balance-sheet
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The hubris of ten-year budgets
John B. Taylor
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A Different Kind of Revisiting the 2008 Financial Crisis
During the past few months, John Cochrane and I organized a series of workshops on the 2008 financial crisis. Monika Piazzesi, George Shultz, Niall Ferguson, Caroline Hoxby, and Darrell Duffie joined us in making presentations and, along with other colleagues who attended, turned the series into a vigorous and informative discussion. We defined each workshop by topic: Causes, Panic, Recession, and Lessons, and posted papers or summaries by...
Read more » -
Now They’re All Saying “It’s Time to Write Chapter 14 into Law”
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Three Attributes of a Sustainable Open and Stable Global Order
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Econ 1, Tiger Woods, and the [email protected]
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Stiglitz, Summers, Secular Stagnation, and the Supply Side
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17 Years of Economic and Security Challenges
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A Boot Camp with a Good Policy Workout
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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Replacing the Phillips Curve: I showed you my macro model. Now show me your macro model.
Peter Dixon wrote a nice piece about my work … To which I responded …. David Glasner weighs in with the view that the Phillips Curve is not a structural relationship. Here is my response. And Stephen Williamson and Jorge Miranda-Pinto tell us that they have not been teaching the Phillips Curve as a structural ...
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There are many unemployment rates for any r*
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Why deficits are sustainable and inflation has a life of its own
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Social Progress is not an Illusion
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Don’t Trust the Markets
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Conference at the Bank of England
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Lend Me Your Ears: Friedman and The Role of Financial Policy
Telegraph Blog
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Opinion
Your support makes a big difference In order to bring you award-winning content and investigative journalism from your favourite writers, we rely on revenue generated by advertising. Please consider supporting us by turning off your ad blocker.Just a couple of clicks will make a big difference. Thank you.
Read more » -
Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
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David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
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Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
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The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
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The Unionist way forward
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Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire
Free Exchange Economist
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Why scan-reading artificial intelligence is bad news for radiologists
THE better artificial intelligence gets, the greater the popular concern that smart machines will soon usher in a labour-market catastrophe. In Chandler, Arizona, Americans can at this moment hail a ride from a car without a human at the wheel. Web users can read high-quality, instant translations of foreign-language newspapers—no professional translation service needed. And developers of machine-learning technologies are moving rapidly to...
Read more » -
Why the Fed is likely to raise rates, despite low inflation
-
Religious competition was to blame for Europe’s witch hunts
-
Donald Trump’s budget ignores what is ailing American workers
-
Richard Thaler’s work demonstrates why economics is hard
-
The case against shrinking the Fed’s balance-sheet
-
The hubris of ten-year budgets
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
-
Guest Post: Comparing Technolgical Change in the Health and Taxi Industries
Well, here is a guest post forwarded to me by Ruolz Ariste - a colleague whom I originally met during my annual interactions with the CIHI and with whom I have co-authored. Ruolz Ariste is currently pursuing a PhD in Industrial Relations in a program run by run jointly by Université Laval and Université du Québec en Outaouais. Enjoy. Comment Ruolz AristeResearcher, U. Laval and UQOIndustrial Relations and Health Economics(Le français...
Read more » -
Interest Rates and Money Growth; Two Types of Central Bank
-
Do Chinese Canadians struggle in the labour market?
-
Breaking up the quarter million dollar club
-
Canada’s Gross Domestic Income and trading gains: An update and estimates for the provinces
-
Hopefully, Tomorrow Won’t Be Yesterday
-
The Federal Debt of the United States, 1791 to 2018: A Presidential Ranking
Miles Kimball
-
Neil Lewis Jr.: Has Gender Stereotype Threat Declined?
4/12. Those concerns, by the way, still come to mind when giving talks at predominantly White academic conferences. So the notion that such concerns could be cognitively distracting enough to undermine performance made/makes a lot of sense to me, and that so many studies found
Read more » -
Deeper Negative Rates Can Ward Off Secular Stagnation
-
Beatrice Cherrier: Is Economics Ideological?
-
Kevin D. Hall and Juen Guo: Why it is so Hard to Lose Weight and so Hard to Keep it Off
-
Nicholas Huntington-Klein on How to Teach the First Econometrics Class (Twitter Thread)
-
A Liberal Turn in the Mormon Church
-
John Bruner: The Latest Technology isn’t Enough—You Need the Business Model to Go with It
FT Alphaville
-
The IMF’s Tobias Adrian on stability
Tobias Adrian, formerly of the New York Fed, runs the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund. Brendan and Colby sat down with him after publication of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report. They talked about collateralised loan obligations, of course, but also about China and how the US faces risks just like any other country when hot capital flows in.
Read more » -
Of Notre Dame burning and signs of the times
-
Creditors are coming for Venezuela’s assets
-
Bonus: IMF’s Vitor Gaspar on debt
-
Casting call for FT Alphaville’s Vaudeville!
-
Further reading
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Corbyn’s threat to investment-bank socialism
Greg Mankiw
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Keep My Love (of the Fed) Alive
Click here to read my column in Sunday's NY Times.
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Today in Ec 10
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Mayor Pete
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Elizabeth Warren Smackdown
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Memo to Senate: Just Say No
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Reflections of a Textbook Author
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Passing the Baton
John Cochrane’s blog
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Perpetually wrong forecasts
Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank sends along the following fascinating graphsThe titles seem a little off. Yes, the market is expecting rate cuts (forward rate) but the market has been exactly wrong about everything for 10 years (and longer) first forecasting the recovery that never came, then forecasting much slower interest rate rises than actually ...
Read more » -
Meer On Minimum Wage
-
Operating Procedures
-
Central Bank Independence
-
Concentration increasing?
-
Less listing
-
Monopoly in history
Peterson Institute
-
Europe’s New Leaders Need to Think Now about the Next Economic Downturn
Europe has rebounded nicely, if unevenly, after its last double-dip recession by relying on the monetary stimulus of the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks. Today, however, Europe faces a potential economic iceberg when its next recession hits, though this issue seems strangely absent from the debate over who should run Europe’s major institutions later this year. Because the ECB and other European central banks will not be...
Read more » -
How the Brexit Extension Could Scramble British and European Political Party Fortunes
-
For the United States, More Digital Privacy Would Mean More National Security
-
Changes Are Coming to the Fed’s Monetary Policy Strategy
-
Rethinking the Phillips Curve: Inflation May Rise Modestly Next Year
-
The Troubling Rise of Economic Nationalism in the European Union
-
The Fed Is on Hold
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
-
Evaluating lower-for-longer policies: Temporary price-level targeting
By Ben S. Bernanke Despite a long and sustained recovery from the Great Recession, a number of factors—including an aging population, slow productivity growth, and subdued inflation—continue to exert downward pressure on U.S. interest rates. It seems likely that even when monetary policy is at a neutral setting, neither restraining nor stimulating the economy, interest rates will remain significantly lower than in recent decades. One...
Read more » -
The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman
-
Financial panic and credit disruptions in the 2007-09 crisis
-
Temporary price-level targeting: An alternative framework for monetary policy
-
When growth is not enough
-
Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
-
The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
-
Is the ZLB an economic or legal constraint?
The so-called zero-lower-bound (ZLB) plays a prominent role in modern (and even older) macroeconomic theories. It is often introduced in a paper or at conference as a fact of life -- an unavoidable property of the physical environment, like gravity. But is it correct to view it in this way? Or is the ZLB better thought of as legal constraint--something that can potentially be circumvented by policy?The Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act...
Read more » -
The Chicago Booth Survey on MMT
-
Sustainable deficits
-
Is Neo-Fisherism Nuts?
-
When is more competition bad?
-
Racial Diversity in the Supply of U.S. Econ PhDs
-
Does the Fed have a symmetric inflation target?
Macro and Other Market Musings
-
Is Low Inflation Really a Mystery?
Over the past decade, inflation has persistently undershot the Fed's inflation target. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, has average 1.56 percent over this time compared to a target of 2 percent. The Fed officially begin inflation targeting in 2012, but was implicitly targeting 2 percent long before that time. So below-target inflation has been happening for close to a decade and for many observers it is a...
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The FOMC Decision: A NGDP Perspective
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Oh, the Horror of a Corridor!
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How Close is the Fed to a Corridor System?
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A Risk Sharing View of Monetary Policy
-
A New Paper on the Fed’s Floor System
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Janet Yellen on NGDPLT
John B. Taylor
-
A Different Kind of Revisiting the 2008 Financial Crisis
During the past few months, John Cochrane and I organized a series of workshops on the 2008 financial crisis. Monika Piazzesi, George Shultz, Niall Ferguson, Caroline Hoxby, and Darrell Duffie joined us in making presentations and, along with other colleagues who attended, turned the series into a vigorous and informative discussion. We defined each workshop by topic: Causes, Panic, Recession, and Lessons, and posted papers or summaries by...
Read more » -
Now They’re All Saying “It’s Time to Write Chapter 14 into Law”
-
Three Attributes of a Sustainable Open and Stable Global Order
-
Econ 1, Tiger Woods, and the [email protected]
-
Stiglitz, Summers, Secular Stagnation, and the Supply Side
-
17 Years of Economic and Security Challenges
-
A Boot Camp with a Good Policy Workout
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
-
Replacing the Phillips Curve: I showed you my macro model. Now show me your macro model.
Peter Dixon wrote a nice piece about my work … To which I responded …. David Glasner weighs in with the view that the Phillips Curve is not a structural relationship. Here is my response. And Stephen Williamson and Jorge Miranda-Pinto tell us that they have not been teaching the Phillips Curve as a structural ...
Read more » -
There are many unemployment rates for any r*
-
Why deficits are sustainable and inflation has a life of its own
-
Social Progress is not an Illusion
-
Don’t Trust the Markets
-
Conference at the Bank of England
-
Lend Me Your Ears: Friedman and The Role of Financial Policy
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
-
Xi & Trump Miss a Chance to Expand Markets
Tweet March 24, 2019 — Donald Trump has postponed until April the supposed deadline for a conclusion to China-US trade negotiations. A good outcome for both sides would have China agree to better protect private property rights and to reduce the role of the state in its economy; the US agree to strengthen national saving and public investment; and both sides agree to reverse their recent tariff increases and the resulting shrinkage of...
Read more » -
Bold Ideas are Not Always Better than Old Ideas
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The euro’s first 20 years
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New Year questions about the economic outlook
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Six right predictions in 2018
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3 Book Recommendations: Openness & Progress
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The Lesson from George H.W. Bush’s Tax Reversal
Brad Delong, Berkeley
-
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-04-20 04:24:16
.... Everyone in the aviation community wants an airplane that flies as simply and as naturally as possible. That means that conditions should not change markedly, there should be no significant roll, no significant pitch change, no nothing when the pilot is adding power, lowering the flaps, or extending the landing gear.... The 737 Max... violated that most ancient of aviation canons and probably violated the certification criteria of the...
Read more » -
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-04-20 04:00:58
-
Cosma Shalizi (2011): Dives, Lazarus, and Alice: Weekend Reading
-
“Unexpected Convergers” since World War II
-
How Big a Problem Is the Malapportionment of the Senate?
-
Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings… (April 18, 2019)
-
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-04-18 03:50:20
Telegraph Blog
-
Opinion
Your support makes a big difference In order to bring you award-winning content and investigative journalism from your favourite writers, we rely on revenue generated by advertising. Please consider supporting us by turning off your ad blocker.Just a couple of clicks will make a big difference. Thank you.
Read more » -
Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
-
David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
-
Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
-
The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
-
The Unionist way forward
-
Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire