Leaders
Mark Thoma: Economist View
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Links for 09-25-16
Donald Trump Pledges to Boost Both Coal and Gas - NYTimes What is so bad about the RBC model? - mainly macro Brookings Productivity Puzzle Panel: VIdeo - Brad DeLong A framework for measuring tasks across occupations - VoxEU The Internet/Computer Explanation of Recessions - EconoSpeak The Statistical Analysis of Policy Rules - John Taylor Trump hört auf Spinner (Krugman: Video) - SRF
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When Industrial Policy Harms Performance
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Links for 09-24-16
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Paul Krugman: The Lying Game
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Why Trump’s Economic Policies Would Be a Disaster
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Links for 09-23-16
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Estate Tax a Key Tool for Fighting US Inequality
Paul Krugman
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The Curious Confidence of Charlatans and Cranks
Brad DeLong tells us about a letter being circulated by economists for Trump — although, as he notes, they don’t dare say that, and describe themselves only as critics of Clinton. Several things are notable about the letter, including the absence of many usually reliable Republican hired guns economists. But they do have a Nobelist, Eugene Fama, at the top. And the substance of the letter — government bad! taxes and regulation bad! free...
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A Lie Too Far?
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Why Are The Media Objectively Pro-Trump?
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Tobin Was Right (Implicitly Wonkish)
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Friday Night Music: The Red Army Choir Sings “It’s A Long Way To Tipperary”
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Is The Fever Finally Breaking?
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Thinking About Brexit, Fast and Slow
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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An unruly debate over policy rules
George Selgin has a new piece criticizing Narayana Kocherlakota on policy rules. Here’s the intro: I was just about to treat myself to a little R&R last Friday when — wouldn’t you know it? — I received an email message from the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center. The message alerted me to a new Brookings Paper by former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota. The paper’s thesis, according to Hutchins Center Director David...
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Utility in the 21st century
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1946
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The Fed begins to see the light
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Why the BOJ policy move (mostly) lacked credibility
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How did we end up here?
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Paul Romer on the identification crisis
Noah Smith
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What do white Americans stand to lose?
An article by Zack Beauchamp in Vox tries to draw a parallel between Donald Trump and the rise of nativist movements in Europe (including Brexit). The similarities do exist: a bunch of angry white people, afraid of immigrants in general but especially Muslims, electing right-wing populist leaders. I don't expect the same outcome here as in Europe, even if Trump manages to win the election, for several reasons:1. America has a history of...
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The new heavyweight macro critics
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Books to help you understand Japan
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Free-market ideology: a reply to some replies
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Heterodox macro – a reply to some replies
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Is Firefly overrated?
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No, U.S. elections are not “rigged”
Project Syndicate
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The Return of Fiscal Policy
NEW YORK – Since the global financial crisis of 2008, monetary policy has borne much of the burden of sustaining aggregate demand, boosting growth, and preventing deflation in developed economies. Fiscal policy, for its part, was constrained by large budget deficits and rising stocks of public debt, with many countries even implementing austerity to ensure debt sustainability. Eight years later, it is time to pass the baton. As the only game...
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The Promise of Bank Mergers
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Can South Korea Make More Babies?
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Whither Turkey?
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Voting for a Better US Political System
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Turning Off the Dividend Spigot
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SOS for China’s SOEs
Global Economic Intersection
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Energy and Falling Productivity
By Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World Appeared previously at Our Finite World 20 September 2016. What really causes falling productivity growth? The answer seems to be very much energy-related. Human labor by itself does not cause productivity growth. It is human labor, leveraged by various tools, that leads to productivity growth. These tools are made using energy, and they often use energy to operate. A decrease in energy consumption by the...
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2015 Household Income Up 5.2% Is Just Spin
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Reinhard Selten: Pioneering Analyst of Rationality and Human Behaviour
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Hjalmar Schacht, Mefo Bills and the Restoration of the German Economy 1933-1939
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Reviewing the IMF’s Role in the Greek Crisis: What Its Independent Evaluation Office Missed
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Negative Rates Nail Savers
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Can U.S. Cities Compensate for Curbing Sprawl by Growing Denser?
FT Alphaville
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Markets Live: Monday, 26th September, 2016
[unable to retrieve full-text content]Live markets commentary from FT.com Continue reading: Markets Live: Monday, 26th September, 2016
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Deutsche’s new market cap, in context
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FT Opening Quote: City fears for a “hard” Brexit
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Further reading
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FirstFT – Russia accused of supporting ‘barbarism’, living without a smartphone and a rare view of imperial China
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Thought for the weekend
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Week Five: FT Alphaville Fantasy Football League
Economonitor
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Overcoming the Second Steel Crisis
Photo: David Clow Today, advanced economies blame China for steel overcapacity. In reality, four decades ago Washington and Brussels opted for bad policies, which China seeks to transcend. In the G20 summit in Hangzhou, some world leaders had harsh words for China’s steel overcapacity. Before the summit, President Barack Obama was urged by US lawmakers, unions and trade associations to blame China’s trade practices for US mill closures and...
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Why Do Top Execs Fear Trump, and Fear to Say So?
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The Timing Is Right for Impact Investing in Latin America
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Crash Course Part 3: The Age of Stagnation?
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G20: Overcoming Protectionism, Emerging Growth
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Crash Course Part 2: Crisis Triggers
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The Search for an Effective Macro Policy
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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China fact of the day
The Chinese government estimates females found 55 percent of new Internet companies and more than a quarter of all entrepreneurs are women. In the U.S., only 22 percent of startups have one or more women on their founding teams, according to research by Vivek Wadhwa and Farai Chideya for their book‘Innovating Women: The Changing Face of Technology.’ That is from Shai Oster and Selina Wang. Some of that may stem from the one-child policy, but...
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Is “hard Brexit” becoming more or less likely?
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Sunday assorted links
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*Hitler’s Soldiers*
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Are lies better than hypocrisy?, with special reference to some current events
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Saturday assorted links
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Bangladesh (Russia) fact of the day
Simon Wren-Lewis
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What is so bad about the RBC model?
This post has its genesis in a short twitter exchange storifiedby Brad DeLong DSGE models, the models that mainstream macroeconomists use to model the business cycle, are built on the foundations of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. We (almost) all know that the RBC project failed. So how can anything built on these foundations be acceptable? As Donald Trump might say, what is going on here? The basic RBC model contains a production...
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Inequality under the Labour government
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Explaining macroeconomics to the Swabian housewife
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The Treasury and Brexit
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Paul Romer on macroeconomics
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In the long run … our children are adults
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Economics, DSGE and Reality: a personal story
Free Exchange Economist
Nick Rowe
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Is it Banking Crisis Season?
One really has to wonder if having the season move into “fall” is correlated with the fall of the financial sector. While some time in the making, the 2007-08 subprime financial crisis moved into crisis mode during August of 2007 and by early fall central banks had moved to lower discount rates and pump liquidity into the system. From my casual observations, it seems that as we move into autumn, the global financial sector is about to enter...
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Do “Monetary Shocks” matter much?
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Private vs Public Nominalism, and Interest on Money
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Money stocks and flows
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The educational smorgasbord
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University budget surpluses: irreversible investment and uncertain demand
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Raising the Inflation target vs Depreciating Paper money against Silicon money
Miles Kimball
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John Locke Looks for a Better Way than Believing in the Divine Right of Kings or Power to the Strong
Wikipedia article on John LockeHaving finished blogging my way through John Stuart Mill’s “On Liberty” (see John Stuart Mill’s Defense of Freedom), I wanted to turn to John Locke’s 2d Treatise on Government: “On Civil Government.” One of the many reasons John Locke’s 2d Treatise on Government is important is that the Framers of the Constitution ...
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Jag Bhalla on the Meaning of Inequality
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“Protection, moreover, has always found an effective ally in those national prejudices and hatreds…”
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Representative Agent Defends Negative Interest Rate Policy by Citing a Non-Representative Agent Model
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The Bank of Japan Renews Its Commitment to Do Whatever it Takes
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Ben Bernanke: Maybe the Fed Should Keep Its Balance Sheet Large
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Negative Rates and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Greg Mankiw
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Bank stocks are just as risky now as they were before the financial crisis
That is the most interesting thing I learned at the recent BPEA meeting. Click here to learn more.
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Diagnosing and Treating the Slow Recovery
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We’re number one!
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Equity and the Estate Tax
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Wehner on Orwell on Fierce Modesty
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Economics Teaching Conference
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Where I have been eating
John Cochrane’s blog
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Negative rates and inflation
Have negative interest rates boosted inflation? Here is a nice graph (source macro-man blog, HT FT alphaville)Source: Macro-man blogNot really. Explanations? Choose the chicken or the egg:1) But for negative rates, inflation would have been even lower2) We're living in a Fisher effect world. Lower rates lower inflation. (Which is arguably a good, if unintended, ...
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Immigration, trade, and child care
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Testimony 2
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Testimony
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Glaeser and Summers on Infrastructure
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Rosenberg in New York Times
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Settlement skulduggery
Peterson Institute
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Swiss-EU Pragmatism on Immigration Will Have Limited Bearing on Brexit Negotiations
The emerging notion among Brexit optimists that the United Kingdom could use Switzerland as a template for negotiating new immigration arrangements with the European Union is filled with holes. EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker visited Switzerland for meetings with the government earlier this week. His focus was the status of Swiss immigration laws and the related issue of a broader new EU-Switzerland Framework Agreement to legally...
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Estate Tax a Key Tool for Fighting US Inequality
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Bank of Japan: A Good Strategic Revision but Tactics Still Lag
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Off Again: The Fed’s Shaky Interest Rate Table
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Negative Interest Rates: A Useful But Limited Tool
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Europe’s Impending Fiscal Volte-Face
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Picking Apples: Tax Policy as State Aid in the European Union
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
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The latest from the Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy announcement today had two main parts. First, the BOJ committed itself to continue expanding the monetary base until the inflation rate “exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner.” That is, the BOJ says it wants not only to reach its 2 percent inflation target but to overshoot it. Second, in a significant change, the BOJ will begin targeting the yield on...
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Modifying the Fed’s policy framework: Does a higher inflation target beat negative interest rates?
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Should the Fed keep its balance sheet large?
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The Fed’s shifting perspective on the economy and its implications for monetary policy
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The relationship between stocks and oil prices
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What tools does the Fed have left? Part 3: Helicopter money
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China’s trilemma—and a possible solution
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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Jackson Hole and Fed Communication
Fed chair Janet Yellen gave what I considered to be a good speech at this year's Jackson Hole conference (see here). Not everyone seems impressed, however. The Fed has no credibility, it seems. For example, it keeps saying it's going to do things, like raise its policy interest rate, only to repeatedly back off. I mean, what the heck? Don't they even know what they're doing?At some level, this degree of frustration is understandable. (I am...
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DSGE Theory
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Some questions concerning equity-financed banking
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Why the Blockchain should be familiar to you
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On Cochrane’s dream of equity-financing banking
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Monetary policy implications of blockchain technology
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On the want of U.S. government debt
Macro and Other Market Musings
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The Bank of Japan: Monetary Mastery or Quantitative Quagmire?
The New Abenomics Program The Bank of Japan (BoJ) just launched a new phase in its monetary easing program popularly known as Abenomics. It is doing so in the hopes of shoring up economic growth. This monetary program until today had involved a targeted expansion of the monetary base at ¥80 trillion a year matched by ¥80 trillion in government bond acquisitions. There were also targeted purchases of ETFs and REITs on a smaller scale.1 The...
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Macro Musings Podcast: Ryan Avent
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Macro Musings Podcast: Michael Bordo
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Macro Musings Podcast: Peter Ireland
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Macro Musings Podcast: Hugh Rockoff
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Macro Musings Podcast: Doug Irwin
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The Unwinding of QE Has Begun
John B. Taylor
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The Statistical Analysis of Policy Rules
My teacher, colleague, and good friend Ted Anderson died this week at the age of 98. Ted was my Ph.D. thesis adviser at Stanford in the early 1970s, and later a colleague when I returned to teach at Stanford in the 1980s. He was a most important influence on me and my research. He taught me an enormous amount about time series analysis, and about how to prove formal theorems in mathematics. I am grateful to him for sharing his wisdom and for...
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Central Banks Going Beyond Their Range
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Kocherlakota on the Fed and the Taylor Rule
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Novel Research on Elections, Policymaking, Economic Uncertainty
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Think Again and Again About the Natural Rate of Interest
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Jackson Hole XXXV
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A Less Weird Time at Jackson Hole?
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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My Slides for the SNB Research Conference
Karl Brunner: 1916 -- 1989 I had the privilege of attending a conference in Zurich yesterday in honor of what would have been Karl Brunner's 100th birthday. This is the first of a series the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has established, kicked off with a keynote address from Ken Rogoff. The celebration of Karl's contribution to economics ...
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Unemployment and Hours are Very Different Creatures
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Why Central Bankers are Like Sheepdogs
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Message to the Fed: We’re not in Kansas Anymore
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Reinventing IS-LM: The IS-LM-NAC Model and How to Use It
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The Economics of the Grim Reaper
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Beliefs and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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Column by Trump Adviser is Not Economically Literate
One can’t blame the Financial Times for publishing an opinion piece by Wilbur Ross, if he is indeed a senior policy adviser to Donald Trump (“Trump campaign benefits from criticism of trade imbalances,” 29 August). It is hard to judge the Republican candidate’s positions from his own words, because of his famous “shoot from the lip” style. Does Trump really believe, for example, that American workers’ wages are too high, as he said in the...
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Trump’s Fiscal Brainstorm: Cut Taxes for the Rich
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Trump Jr.’s Pants-on-Fire Allegation of Manipulated Jobs Numbers
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Brexit, Trump, and Workers Left Behind
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A Way to Save the United Kingdom
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Does the Economy Really Do Better Under Democratic Presidents?
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Addressing Commodity Price Volatility in Algeria and Morocco
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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Weekend Reading: Barry Eichengreen: Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy
Barry Eichengreen: Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy: It is one of the great pleasures of my association with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to give these closing remarks. Having done this twice before, in 2011 and 2013, this affords me the opportunity not just to highlight some insights from this year’s papers but also to look back at the conclusions of those earlier conferences and see how...
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bradford-delong.com: Grasping Reality with the Invisible Hand… 2016-09-25 12:13:00
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Brookings Productivity Puzzle Panel: VIdeo
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(Early) Monday Smackdown: David Glasner on the Ignorance of Macroeconomists Who Say “All Models Are False” in Self-Justification
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Musings on “Just Deserts” and the Opening of Plato’s Republic
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The Long-Run Economic Trend Is Our Friend: No Longer so Fresh at Project Syndicate
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Night Thoughts on Dynamic Scoring: Hoisted from a Year Ago
Telegraph Blog
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Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
As I point out repeatedly, the debate about EU migration and free movement has two separate, but related, dimensions: “fairness” – who can access what benefits and when; and “volume” – how many migrants come to the UK every year. So far, David Camero...
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David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
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Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
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The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
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The Unionist way forward
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Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire
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Why Scots should vote No tomorrow