Leaders
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-08-21 19:31:26
Note to Self: Neoliberalism and Its Discontents: "Since the recession a decade ago, free-market economics (also known as neoliberalism) has been questioned on multiple fronts. As the dominant governing strategy for the past 40 years—including the Democratic administrations of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama—the Left today is increasingly challenging neoliberalism. Indeed, as the primaries approach, many former Clinton and Obama officials...
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I Want My Country Back!
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-08-21 14:24:10
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-08-21 13:37:41
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What Is This “White” You Speak of, Kemosabe?: Hoisted from the Archives
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-08-20 13:54:39
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Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality 2019-08-20 13:44:27
Bradley A. Hansen’s Blog
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Economics needs better critics: Jared Bernstein edition
A couple of weeks ago Vox.com published and essay by Jared Bernstein titled “What economists have gotten wrong for decades: Four economic ideas disproven by reality.” I was unaware of it until a discussion emerged on twitter last week, in which people were offering explanations for why economists were not only wrong but wrong in ways that harmed lower income people disproportionately. The discussion was irritating because it was premised on...
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Institutions, Norms, and Culture
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Blog Post From Nebraska
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“You think it’s dead but de past ain’t stopped breathin’ yet.”
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Gavin Wright on Slavery and Anglo-American Capitalism
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Public Goods, Private Roads, and the Case of Scandinavia
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More Evo-Nonsense
Casey Mulligan: Supply and Demand
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Comparing Presidents Reagan and Trump: The Case of International Trade
]]> “I am a tariff man...” President Trump, December 2018 “We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.” President Reagan, November 1988 (If you have five extra minutes -- and tissues to wipe away tears of joy, affection, and patriotism -- watch the full Reagan defense of...
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Some Relevant International Trade Theory
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Economic Theory in the White House: An Index of 66 Instances in One Year
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Comparing Presidents Reagan and Trump: The Case of Regulation
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Economic Theory in the White House: The Rebate Rule
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“No One in Ohio Cares About Burma”: The Washington Bubble
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Marxist Provisions in “Medicare for All”
Dani Rodrik’s weblog
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Follow my commentary
Even though I post here occasionally, my regular monthly pieces are published on the Project Syndicate website and you can read them here. For a full list of my opinion pieces, go here. My research papers and books are here and here, respectively. Finally, if you want to follow me in the news, check out here.
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Some (very brief) words for graduates
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Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
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Economists’ statement in support of Atif Mian
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My preface to Santiago Levy’s Book: Under-Rewarded Efforts — The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico
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My preface to Santiago Levy’s Book: Under-Rewarded Efforts — The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico
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Site Maintenance
David Flynn: Barter is Evil
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Barter is Evil 1970-01-01 00:00:00
[unable to retrieve full-text content]
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State of the economy, North Dakota edition
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Can we recognize nobody cares about deficits and debts?
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Facebook Currency and the Great Misperception
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On the radio today
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ND County Unemployment Rates, May 2019
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Initial Unemployment Claims in ND
Econbrowser – James Hamilton
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If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It
NABE survey, WSJ survey, Bloomberg survey, PredictIt Source: NABE, Economic Policy Survey,19 Aug 2019. Survey 14 July-1 August 2019. Source:WSJ, August 2019 survey of economists. Source: Bloomberg, 8 Aug 2019. Source: PredictIt, 16 Aug 2019. All of these polls were conducted before the stock market drop on 14 August; the PredictIt market price was obtained on 16 August, so incorporates the news regarding inversion of the 10yr-2yr.
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Recession Probability If the Rest of August Is Like the First Half
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“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession”
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Winning: Midwest Manufacturing Employment
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A History of Trade Policy Retaliation: Soybeans Edition
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Does the Safe-Haven Aspect of the US Explain Declining Treasury Rates
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Key Business Cycle Indicators, August 15th
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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Blanchard and Farmer on the Phillips Curve
In case you missed it, there's an interesting (and slightly wonkish) debate going on between Olivier Blanchard and Roger Farmer concerning the theoretical relevance of the Phillips curve. Roger fired the opening salvo by presenting a macroeconomic model he claims fits the data well and yet makes no use of the Phillips curve. Farmer, in Laplace-like fashion, declared "he had no use for that hypothesis." Blanchard predictably, and...
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Does the Phillips Curve Live in Europe?
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The Phillips Curve in Recession and Recovery
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Is the U.S. budget deficit sustainable?
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Is the ZLB an economic or legal constraint?
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The Chicago Booth Survey on MMT
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Sustainable deficits
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
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What killed real wage growth?
This is the Project Link chart that most startles me: What killed the growth in real wages in the early 1970s? I've been trying to come up with an answer to this question, and I think I have one. I'm not entirely sure that it's the correct answer, but I think it's a plausible conjecture. Of course, an obvious thing for a Canadian economist to do is to check what was going in in the US at the time: Something happened to real wage...
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Project Link update
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Historical Canadian Government Data Sources
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Alpha Beta and the Libra Twist
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Reflections on Westeros
Tim Harford: Undercover Economist
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US health care is literally killing people
US health care is literally killing people It is astonishing how far the debate on healthcare has moved in the US, at least for the Democrats. Not long ago offering universal, government-funded healthcare was viewed as tantamount to communism; now, it’s a touchstone of many presidential hopefuls. Not before time. The US healthcare system is a monument to perverse incentives, unintended consequences and political inertia. It is...
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The strange power of the idea of “average”
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How economics can raise its game
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How the Brexit debate was flushed down the drain
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How the US is weaponising the world economy
Timothy Taylor: Conversable Economist
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The Iron Law of Megaprojects vs. the Hiding Hand Principle
The next time you read about a "bridge to nowhere" or a giant infrastructure project that started and then stalled, you may wish to mutter to yourself teh "Iron Law of Megaprojects: Over budget, over time, over and over again." It's a coinage of Bent Flyvbjerg. For an overview of his arguments, you can check this Cato Policy Report (January 2017), which in turn is based on this article from the Project Management Journal...
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Alfred Marshall in 1885: “The Present Position of Economics”
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Tradeoffs of “Free” Higher Education: Finland, South Korea, England, United States
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What the IMF Thinks about China’s Exchange Rate and Trade Balance
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Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages
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Limits for Corporate Bigness on Acquisitions, Patents, and Politics
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Uwe Reinhardt on High US Health Care Costs
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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Recessions are not forecastable
I’m seeing too many people assuming that a recession will occur within the next year or so. That’s certainly possible, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that recessions are not forecastable. This looks like a trend, doesn’t it? I’ve argued that long term interest rates reflect NGDP growth. That’s presumably still true, but the linkage seems to be weakening in recent years. NGDP growth since the mid-1990s has not slowed anywhere near as...
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A proposed three team trade
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The Fed thinks it’s smarter than the markets
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(Trade) war, children, it’s just a tweet away
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Greg Ip asks an interesting question
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Does China have enough dollars?
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Party like it’s 1999
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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Crypto to make your head spin
We analyze a two-country economy with complete markets, featuring two national currencies as well as a global (crypto)currency. If the global currency is used in both countries, the national nominal interest rates must be equal and the exchange rate between the national currencies is a risk- adjusted martingale. We call this result Crypto-Enforced Monetary Policy Synchronization (CEMPS). Deviating from interest equality risks approaching the...
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Wednesday assorted links
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Warsaw notes
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A countercultural take on China
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The polity that is Poland
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Tuesday assorted links
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My podcast with Russ Roberts, EconTalker
Simon Wren-Lewis
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Why did the UK become a failed state?
‘I should be the leader of a government of national unity’. ‘No you shouldn’t, someone else should’. I’m afraid if you were hoping I would write about this nonsense you will be disappointed. It seems to me right now nothing more than just another way for those who really dislike Corbyn to attack him and those who support Labour to attack everyone else. Rebel Tories will be hoping a crash out Brexit can be stopped another way, and if that fails...
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How should academic economics cope with ideological bias
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Will we get No Deal because Brexiters want it more?
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The Remainers urging people to vote for a No Deal Brexit
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Does Brexit represent an alliance of Rentiers?
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Fiscal tightening in UK recessions: 1981 and 2010 compared
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There is no mandate for No Deal
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Seldomly
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Providing low-cost labor market information to assist jobseekers
Summary People who are receiving unemployment benefits and looking for a job are typically required to consider occupations beyond their preferred line of work, at least after an initial period of joblessness. But how should jobseekers decide which occupations to consider, and how should employment agencies advise them? A team of economists has...
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Subsidizing health insurance for low-income adults: evidence from Massachusetts
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Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit
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Nominal wage rigidity in village labor markets: evidence from India
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Market power and the Laffer curve
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How management practices drive firms’ performance in the long run: evidence from the Marshall Plan
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How management practices drive firms’ performance in the long run: evidence from the Marshall Plan
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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Central Bank Equity Purchases: An Idea Whose Time has Come
Writing in the Financial Times last week, BlackRock executive, Rick Rieder, urged the ECB to purchase equities in an attempt to stimulate growth in the Eurozone. Merryn Somerset Webb, disagrees. While Merryn is correct to point out that BlackRock stands to benefit from a policy that would increase equity prices in the Eurozone, that is not a ...
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The Future of Macroeconomics
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Why the Indeterminacy Agenda Matters in the Real World
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Replacing the Phillips Curve: I showed you my macro model. Now show me your macro model.
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There are many unemployment rates for any r*
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Why deficits are sustainable and inflation has a life of its own
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Social Progress is not an Illusion
Project Syndicate
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Managing the Next Gold Rush
The seafloor is rich in rare-earth elements and other sought-after minerals, but it also contains barely understood components of the global ecosystem. In pursuing these precious resources, the international community must proceed with care, so as not to trigger an environmental catastrophe. WASHINGTON, DC – The International Seabed Authority (ISA) sits perched above the concrete...
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The Fall and Rise of Public Heroism
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Inside the Hong Kong Protests
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Planetary Thinking
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Latin America’s Missing Middles
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The Real Obstacle to Climate Action
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Is Britain Becoming a Failed State?
Paul Krugman
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The World Has a Germany Problem
You might think that recent events — market turmoil, weakening growth, declining manufacturing production — must be producing some soul-searching in the White House, particularly over Donald Trump’s view that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” That is, you might think that if you haven’t paid any attention to Trump’s past behavior.What he’s actually doing, of course, is attributing the economy’s troubles to a vast conspiracy of people out...
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From Trump Boom to Trump Gloom
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Useful Idiots and Trumpist Billionaires
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China intenta enseñarle a Trump de economía
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China Tries to Teach Trump Economics
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Tariff Tantrums and Recession Risks
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Trump’s China Shock
Noah Smith
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Why Kevin Williamson is wrong about poverty and bad behavior
I recently wrote a post at Bloomberg Opinion arguing that "bad behavior" - drug use, violence, single parenthood, and idleness - is not the main cause of poverty in advanced nations. As evidence, I cited the country of Japan, which has extremely low rates of drug use, violence, single parenthood, and idleness, and yet which has a poverty rate almost as high as that of the U.S., and significantly higher than those of wealthy European...
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The Middle Eastern Thirty Years War?
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Examining an MMT model in detail
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Where should Americans live if they live abroad?
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Guest post: Roy Bahat on Uber, Lyft, and the future of work
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A proposal for an Alternative Green New Deal
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Book Review: The Revolt of the Public, by Martin Gurri
Offsetting Behaviour
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Mind Fixers
The Spinoff has a superb piece by Danyl McLauchlan reviewing Anne Harrington's Mind Fixers. Thomas Szasz makes an appearance. A snippet: In January of 1973 the psychologist David Rosenhan published an article in Science, one of the world’s most influential academic journals, titled ‘On Being Sane in Insane Places’. He’d conducted an experiment in which eight people (including himself) presented to twelve different psychiatric hospitals across...
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Cricket and Collaboration
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Roskam on RBNZ’s Shock and Awe
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Some sense from Emily
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Burton on Stats
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Preparing for the monetary rocky horror
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Mixing up the heroes and villains
Microeconomic Insights
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Providing low-cost labor market information to assist jobseekers
Summary People who are receiving unemployment benefits and looking for a job are typically required to consider occupations beyond their preferred line of work, at least after an initial period of joblessness. But how should jobseekers decide which occupations to consider, and how should employment agencies advise them? A team of economists has...
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Subsidizing health insurance for low-income adults: evidence from Massachusetts
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Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit
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Nominal wage rigidity in village labor markets: evidence from India
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Market power and the Laffer curve
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How management practices drive firms’ performance in the long run: evidence from the Marshall Plan
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How management practices drive firms’ performance in the long run: evidence from the Marshall Plan
Miles Kimball
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Is the Bitcoin Algorithm a ‘Robot Central Bank’ or is Bitcoin Free-Market Money?
"Cryptocurrency does not avoid having a central bank. The bitcoin algorithm is, in effect, a central bank for bitcoin. Bitcoin has a robot central bank." I disagree, Miles. Yes, it is a designed system. But there is nothing about it that doesn't qualify as "free market."— George Selgin (@GeorgeSelgin) August 1, 2019 George, I think ...
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Kevin Thom Defends `Genetic Endowments and Wealth Inequality’
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On ‘Flipping the Metabolic Switch: Understanding and Applying Health Benefits of Fasting’ by Stephen D. Anton et al.
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Claudia Sahm’s Offer to Give Feedback on Economics Job Market Papers
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On Being a Copy of Someone’s Mind
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How Story Has Become Central to Advertising
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Nick HK on How to Succeed in the Middle of the Academic Economics Job Market
Miles Corak: Economics for public policy
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Intergenerational mobility between and within Canada and the United States
Intergenerational mobility is lower in the United States than in Canada, but the border only partially distinguishes the two countries with mobility varying significantly within each. The within-country differences and similarities hint at some of the reasons why the United States has lower social mobility than many other rich countries. This is the main theme of a study released by the National Bureau of Economic Research, based upon Canadian...
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The “middle class” is within easier reach for low income Canadian children, than it is for low income Americans
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If there is such a thing as the “Canadian Dream,” it would look very much like what Americans say is the “American Dream”
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Equality of opportunity is a choice
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Rest in peace Alan Krueger
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The changing nature of work calls for enhancing the human and financial capital of children in less wealthy families
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Canada’s Poverty Reduction Strategy adopts the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal to end poverty
Mark Thoma
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Links (8/08/19)
Irving Fisher Demolishes the Loanable-Funds Theory of Interest - Uneasy MoneyIn some recent posts (here, here and here) I have discussed the inappropriate application of partial-equilibrium analysis (aka supply-demand analysis) when the conditions under which the ceteris paribus assumption underlying partial-equilibrium analysis are not satisfied. The two examples of inappropriate application of partial equilibrium analysis I have mentioned...
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Links (8/01/19)
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Links (7/22/19)
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Summer is Here
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Links (7/15/19)
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Links (7/9/19)
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Links (6/29/19)
Managerial Econ
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Alfred Kahn on clear writing
Economist Alfred Kahn died this week at age 93. Although he is most remembered for deregulating the airlines industry, Vanderbilt students know him through his essay,My War Against Bureaucratese," the gobbledygook written by government bureaucrats designed to hide what they are really doing. Here are a few of his most salient points:“Every time you’re tempted to use ‘herein’ or ‘hereinabout’ or ‘hereinunder’ or, similarly, ‘therein,’...
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Is Sweden Socialist?
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DOJ blocks printing merger
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DDT is making a comeback! (book recommendation, Factfulness)
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Homeowners’ cartel is raising prices
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When prices go up, eventually demand becomes elastic
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Why do women bid less for gigs?
Macro and Other Market Musings
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New Articles on NGDP Targeting
Just a quick note on a couple of my papers that recently got published. First, Josh Hendrickson and I published in the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking earlier this year with an article titled "Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field". Here is the abstract: Some economists advocate nominal GDP targeting as an alternative to the Taylor Rule. These arguments are largely based on the idea that nominal...
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Is the Fed’s Floor System Beginning to Fold?
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Is Low Inflation Really a Mystery?
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The FOMC Decision: A NGDP Perspective
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Oh, the Horror of a Corridor!
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How Close is the Fed to a Corridor System?
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A Risk Sharing View of Monetary Policy
John B. Taylor
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Choice of IMF Managing Director Should Reflect 75 Years of Change
Last week Raghu Rajan and I coauthored an article for the Financial Times. We argued that the IMF should no longer continue the tradition that the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund be a European. Instead, it should “break the mould by appointing the best possible candidate to the job, regardless of nationality,” and “hold an open competition” for the position. As the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance...
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A Beautiful Model Now Questioned
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Central Bank Independence Is Not Enough
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Africa Meeting of Econometricians: History, Revival and Ways Forward
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A Decade of July 4th Debt Explosions: Are They Getting Less Spectacular?
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Recent Decisions and Rules of the Fed
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Let’s Twist Again with Online Econ 1
John Cochrane – Grumpy Economist
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Gold Oped
Now that 30 days have passed, I can post the whole July 18 gold oped in the Wall Street Journal.Some of President Trump’s potential nominees to the Federal Reserve Board have expressed sympathy for a return to the gold standard. Conventional monetary-policy experts deride the idea—and not wholly without reason. The gold standard won’t work for ...
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Geoengineering fun
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Letter 2 from Argentina
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The Reader’s Guide to Optimal Monetary Policy
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Whither the Fed?
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Letter from Argentina
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Trade and the Fed
Leisure of the Theory Class
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The game theory of the electoral threshold
The game theory of the electoral threshold April 7, 2019 in Uncategorized Israel is holding an election Tuesday. It’s a multi-party system in Israel, based on proportional representation, and the main battle is between two blocs of parties. We call them the left-wing bloc and the right-wing bloc, and civics textbooks will tell you that this division is about policy: the Arab-Israeli conflict, economics and the role of religion. But...
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Institute for Wow
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New Linear Algebra Division
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A New Business Idea
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Arms and Projects
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Weber’s proof of Gittins Index Theorem
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Samuelson on Linear Programming
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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RMB reaches 7.0; US names China a manipulator
TweetAugust 12, 2019 –The US-China trade war heated up in the first week of August. On August 1, Donald Trump abruptly announced plans to impose a 10 % tariff on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China that he had not already hit with earlier tariffs. The Chinese authorities then allowed their currency, the renminbi (RMB), to fall in value below the highly visible line of 7.0 RMB/$. The US Administration promptly reacted on August...
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Parallel to US-China trade war, Japan & Korea fall out
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Trump escalates China trade war
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Let’s Forget about 2% Inflation
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Tenth birthday of the June 2009 recovery
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Remembering Martin Feldstein
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The Trade War Resumes
Global Economic Intersection
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The 2019 Manufacturing Recession
Posted on 21 August 2019 by UPFINA Article of the Week from UPFINABased on the hard data reports last Thursday, it looks like the manufacturing sector is heading into a recession, while the consumer is doing well. In an economy driven by consumer spending, that’s a recipe for a modest economic slowdown, unlike 2008, perhaps closer to 2015. To be clear, this isn’t a certainty especially since the latest consumer sentiment report was weak...
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Demystifying The Mystery Of Debt
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What I Learned At Camp Kotok
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Why The Yield Curve May Not Matter
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Metaphor And Meaning: What Is A Downward-Sloping Demand Curve?
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How Low Could Interest Rates Go In The US?
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On The Socially Optimal Labour Share Of Income
FT Alphaville
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Walmart sues Tesla over dodgy solar service
Another day brings news of another Tesla lawsuit. But this time, it's not from a disgruntled consumer. Walmart — the $320bn market cap mega-retailer — has alleged that Tesla’s solar panels caused fires at seven of its stores across the States. You can read the full thing here.The FT’s Mamta Badkar and Richard Waters have done a stellar write-up of the suit, but we thought it was worth picking a few of the more eye-opening paragraphs from...
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Offsetting Flugscham. Private jets edition
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ARK Invest’s Tesla model gathers dust
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Further reading
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Alphaville LLC in the press
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The corner of the bond market that won’t go negative
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Further reading
Economonitor
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Argentina’s half-baked adjustment has not worked
Argentina’s peso tumbled and stocks plunged after last Sunday’s primary elections. Argentina’s peso tumbled and stocks plunged after last Sunday’s primary elections. The perception of a likely victory of President Macri’s opponents – Alberto Fernandez, and running mate, Christina Fernandez de Kirchner - has sparked a new shift in investor preferences away from peso assets, pressures on the exchange rate, and hikes on sovereign spreads. Unless...
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Brazil must hold to structural reforms while undergoing slow economic recovery
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Natural Wealth and Economic Growth: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa
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No Quick Fix for Ghana’s Economic Challenges
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Mercosur-EU trade agreement: better late than never
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Global trade: from ‘rule of law’ to ‘law of the jungle’
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Middle Income Countries and Multilateral Banks – Traps on the Way to Graduation
Donald Marron
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Should Congress Use The Income Tax To Discourage Consumer Drug Ads?
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and a score of Democratic cosponsors want to use the tax code to discourage direct-to-consumer advertising by drug companies. Their bill, the End Taxpayer Subsidies for Drug Ads Act, would prohibit firms from taking tax deductions for any consumer advertising of prescription drugs. Limiting tax deductions is a blunt and arbitrary way of approaching a legitimate concern. Consumer drug ads play an important role in...
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Should Congress Use The Income Tax To Discourage Consumer Drug Ads?
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Designing Carbon Dividends
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Designing Carbon Dividends
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Three Things You Should Know about the Buyback Furor
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Three Things You Should Know about the Buyback Furor
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Talking Money, Inflation, Fiat, & Bitcoin
Cyril Morong: Dangerous Economist
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The benefits of utilizing markets in the U.S.
An article I wrote for the San Antonio Express-News last March. "I was glad to see that Beto O’Rourke recently said, “I’m a capitalist. I don’t see how we’re able to meet any of the fundamental challenges that we have as a country without, in part, harnessing the power of the market.” It seems like our country is turning away from markets too much these days. Democrats are proposing massive government interventions like the...
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New Braunfels businesses fooled into taking movie money
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Can scientific thinking help entrepreneurs?
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College Still Pays Off, but Not for Everyone
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Why Rate Cuts Don’t Help Much Anymore
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San Antonio, Poverty and Economic Segregation
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Texas A & M economists study cheating (and how much might not depend on being rich or poor)
Greg Mankiw
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The Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff
Click here to read my column in Sunday's NY Times.
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Competing with Shakespeare
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Demand Curves Slope Downward (even for socialists)
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Happy Semicentennial, Econ Nobel
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Review of Bernanke et al.
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Freshman Seminar 2019
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Matt’s Best Consumer Purchase
Ben Bernanke
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Evaluating lower-for-longer policies: Temporary price-level targeting
By Ben S. Bernanke Despite a long and sustained recovery from the Great Recession, a number of factors—including an aging population, slow productivity growth, and subdued inflation—continue to exert downward pressure on U.S. interest rates. It seems likely that even when monetary policy is at a neutral setting, neither restraining nor stimulating the economy, interest rates will remain significantly lower than in recent decades. One...
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The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman
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Financial panic and credit disruptions in the 2007-09 crisis
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Temporary price-level targeting: An alternative framework for monetary policy
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When growth is not enough
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Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
Carola Binder: Quantitative Ease
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Central Banking Stories to Watch in 2019
Happy New Year, everybody! 2018 has been a quiet year for my blog, but productive on other fronts, as I've kept busy with research and my family. But here are a few central bank-related stories I'm interested in following in the new year. 1. New Governor at Reserve Bank of IndiaFollowing the early exit of Governor Urjit Patel in December, Prime Minister Modi appointed the third central bank governor in just three years: Shaktikanta Das....
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Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump
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“Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past”
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From Senior Thesis to Publication
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Snapshot of the Publication and Review Process as an Assistant Professor
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Mortgage-Backed Securities Ratings and Losses Maybe Not So Bad
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D is for Devastating: A Statistical Error and the Vitamin D Saga
Free Exchange Economist
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Republicans grouse about tax models they once supported
THEY have been at this a long time. In 1994 Republicans, newly in charge of Congress, held hearings on what would come to be called “dynamic scoring”. Bills, they said, should be evaluated using the predictive power of macroeconomic models. If the model predicts more GDP growth, then it could be inferred that the growth would produce more tax revenue. During the hearings, however, came an awkward moment. Alan Greenspan, then in charge of the...
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Podcast: The Italian bailout job
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Podcast: A poison chalice for GE’s new boss
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A new paper rekindles a tiresome debate on immigration and wages
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Why scan-reading artificial intelligence is bad news for radiologists
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Why the Fed is likely to raise rates, despite low inflation
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Religious competition was to blame for Europe’s witch hunts
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Jared Bernstein: On the economy
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The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power
As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...
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How Brexit will constrain a future Labour government
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Is a flexible labour market a problem for central bankers?
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Brexit and Democracy
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The UK slowdown is a result of Brexit and austerity
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Why Owen Jones is wrong about Brexit
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Lexit
Josh Hendrickson: Everyday Economist
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A Simple Lesson About Money and Models
Imagine you are in your high school algebra class and you are presented with the following two equations: Two linear equations with 2 unknowns. This is a simple problem to solve. Now suppose that your teacher gives you the following three equations: Note that this is still a simple problem to solve. The first two equations are identical to the previous example. You can use those first two equations to solve for x and y. Then, knowing x, you...
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Macro Musings
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Updates
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Monetary Policy as a Jobs Guarantee
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How Did the Gold Standard Work? Part 1: The Efficiency of the Gold Standard
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Towards an Alchian-type Approach to Political Economy
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The Sleight-of-Hand of Olson-esque Public Choice
Owen Zidar
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Who were the top taxpayers in 1923?
From page 71 of Daniel Marcin’s “The Revenue Act of 1924: Publicity, Tax Cuts, Response” div{float:left;margin-right:10px;} div.wpmrec2x div.u > div:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0px;} ]]> Advertisements
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Trump won in counties that lost jobs to China and Mexico
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The Effect of Pension Income on Elderly Earnings: Evidence from Social Security and Full Population Data
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Why Retire When You Can Work? Hours are way up for elderly workers
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Zip-code Economics
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Financial firms make large share of pass-through income
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Pass-through income and the top 1%
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Peterson Institute
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The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power
As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...
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How Brexit will constrain a future Labour government
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Is a flexible labour market a problem for central bankers?
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Brexit and Democracy
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The UK slowdown is a result of Brexit and austerity
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Why Owen Jones is wrong about Brexit
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Lexit
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Telegraph Blog
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The media cannot reform itself until it acknowledges its power
As regular readers know, I have for the last few years been banging on about the importance of the media in influencing public opinion. (It formed a key part of my SPERI/News Statesman prize lecture.) It is not a partisan point about whether the media is politically biased in a particular direction. Instead it is a claim that the media can and sometimes is profoundly important in influencing major political events. I think it is fair to say...
Read more » -
How Brexit will constrain a future Labour government
-
Is a flexible labour market a problem for central bankers?
-
Brexit and Democracy
-
The UK slowdown is a result of Brexit and austerity
-
Why Owen Jones is wrong about Brexit
-
Lexit