Leaders
Mark Thoma: Economist View
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Pure Class Warfare, With Extra Contempt
Paul Krugman: Pure Class Warfare, With Extra Contempt: The Senate version of Trumpcare – the Better Care Reconciliation Act – is out. The substance is terrible: tens of millions of people will experience financial distress if this passes, and tens if not hundreds of thousands will die premature deaths, all for the sake of tax cuts for a handful of wealthy people. What’s even more amazing is that Republicans are making almost no effort to...
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In Long Run, There’s No Such Thing as an Einstein Investor
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Links for 06-23-17
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Fed’s Labor Market Forecasts Don’t Make Sense
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Links for 06-22-17
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Does the Fed Have a Financial Stability Mandate?
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Rodrik: Doing (and Teaching) Economics [Video]
Paul Krugman
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The Silence of the Hacks
The actual text of the Senate version of Trumpcare is still a secret, even from almost all the Senators who are expected to vote for it. But that’s actually a secondary issue: never mind the precise details, what’s the organizing idea? What is the bill supposed to do, and how is it supposed to do it? The answer — which I’ve been suggesting for a while — is that they have no idea, and more broadly, no ideas in general. Now Vox confirms this, by...
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A Finger Exercise On Hyperglobalization
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Their Own Private Pyongyang
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Macroeconomics: The Simple and the Fancy
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We’re Not Even In Kansas Anymore
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They Don’t Need No Information
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Personal And Service Note
S. Sumner: Money Illusion
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NBA GMs and Fed Governors
Here is Nate Silver, discussing the growing accuracy of NBA mock drafts: Mock drafts — and rumors/reporting about who would go where — were shockingly accurate this year. There aren’t a lot of dumb teams in the NBA anymore, and it’s getting harder to find picks that come out of nowhere. I suppose one could think of mock drafts as sort of like “the market” and NBA general managers as sort of like the Fed. Are the mock drafts getting more...
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Gabe Newell contributes to Hypermind
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Josh Hendrickson reviews The Midas Paradox
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Nominal illusion
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The Canadian Taliban
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Is the Fed evil or misguided?
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One small step for deregulation
Noah Smith
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Noah Smackdown, illegal immigration edition
In February, I wrote a Bloomberg View post called "The Myth of the Immigration Crisis" that got a fair bit of attention. In it, I wrote: Illegal immigration to the U.S. ended a decade ago and, according to the Pew Research Center, has been zero or negative since its peak in 2007: About a million undocumented immigrants left the country in the Great Recession. But even after the end of the recession, illegal immigration...
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Is economics a science?
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Summing up my thoughts on macroeconomics
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The Shouting Class
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The NIMBY challenge
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Vast literatures as mud moats
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Actually good Silicon Valley critiques?
Project Syndicate
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We’ll Always Need Paris
LONDON – President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement is deeply regrettable and based on flawed economic analysis. But unstoppable technological progress, plus determined action by other countries, companies across the world, and American cities and states, will ensure that Trump does not derail progress toward a low-carbon economy. Trump claimed that the Paris accord would cut US GDP by $3...
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The Underside of Uber
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Revisiting the Global Order
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Economics in Transition
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Trump’s Sugar Swamp
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Donald Trump’s Trade-Knowledge Deficit
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Trump’s Unraveling Korea Policy
Dani Rodrik’s weblog
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What’s Wrong With Our System Of Global Trade And Finance?
That is what John Judis wanted to talk to me about, and we did. This over at TPM is what came out. By the way, Judis' book on populism is great. It makes an important distinction between right-wing and left-wing populism, a distinction that I have used as well.
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Why Did So Many Cheer Turkey’s Democracy While It Was Dying?
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Prudential regulation, capital controls, and second-best
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Trade, redistribution, and social dumping
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Dismal thoughts about the Turkish referendum
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Ariel Rubinstein on Economics Rules
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A Foreword to Kari Polanyi Levitt
Global Economic Intersection
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Chasing Utopia: Solow Versus Harrod-Domar
By Philip Pilkington I’m currently reading Robert Solow’s paper A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth in which he lays out his famous Solow growth model. I don’t want to get into the actual model laid out here but instead ask what exactly this paper is trying to address. As readers of this blog will probably know I find so-called ‘long-run’ models to be about as useful for understanding the economy as toy train sets are for...
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The Next Minsky Moment
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What, Me Worry?
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Bad Governance and Corruption in Countries: What Causes It?
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Rising Job Tenure and Its Tradeoffs
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The Interaction of Economists and Money Cranks in the Depression Years
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Can You Afford to Reach 100?
Econbrowser
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Guest Contribution: “Time-varying Models for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Adjunct Professor of Economics, University Paris Nanterre, France). The views expressed here are those solely of the author. This is the title of a Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN) – Pierre Werner Chair conference organized last week at the European University Institute in Florence (Italy) by Fabio Canova (Norwegian Business School and EUI), Massimiliano...
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Double Time to Trade War?
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Pangloss in Wisconsin
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Fed balance-sheet reduction not scaring anyone
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Treasury debt held by the public
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“The Transmission of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies across Borders”
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The Pound on 8 June 2017
Tim Harford: Undercover Economist
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Donald Trump and Theresa May Give U-Turns A Bad Name
Donald Trump and Theresa May Give U-Turns A Bad Name A few weeks ago Donald Trump set a record that I assumed was unassailable; Theresa May has since sailed past it with ease. The leaders of the US and the UK have become so proficient at changing direction that “U-turn” no longer seems adequate. Donald and Theresa are spinning policy doughnuts. Mr Trump has a notoriously flexible approach to his own pledges. He has reversed course on...
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What are the best books about the history of technology?
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The age of the Microsoft and Amazon economy
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I’m giving some talks. Come along!
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Where the truth really lies with statistics
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Undercover Monday 3
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Personal finance sets traps for dinosaurs
Economonitor
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A Pilot for the Governance of the Euro Is Required Immediately
photo: Christine und Hagen Graf After the Brexit, European leaders are faced with the strict obligation to make Europe credible, particularly by consolidating the weak pillar of the Euro, namely, economic governance. This must henceforth be piloted by a Finance Minister. This step, which is necessary for the survival of the Euro, must be taken ...
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Long-Term Finance and BNDES Tapering in Brazil
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Corporate venturing: How to survive and thrive in the 21st century
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Curious About Trump’s Tax Returns? Blockchain Might Provide the Answer
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Qatar: Six Countries Sever Diplomatic Ties, Gulf Unity Under Threat
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Negative Rates Part 1: Beyond the Zero Bound
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The Vienna Deal: Only Temporary Relief in Oil Markets
T. Cowen: Marginal Revolution
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What is the proper penalty for scientific fraud the culture that is China what would Gary Becker say?
In the past few months, China has announced two new crackdowns on research misconduct — one of which could lead to executions for scientists who doctor their data. Scientists have been sounding alarms for years about the integrity of research in China. One recent survey estimated that 40 percent of biomedical papers by Chinese scholars were tainted by misconduct. Funding bodies there have in the past announced efforts to crack down on fraud,...
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Regulation of Charlatans in High-Skill Professions
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*Regulation and Economic Growth*
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Friday assorted links
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The Senate health care bill
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The orca wars escalate, with special reference to the economics of fisheries
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The commerce that is Chinese
Jared Bernstein: On the economy
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Links: Recessions risks; the really, really bad Senate GOP health plan; see ya later…
A few links to check out, both over at WaPo. First, no one knows when the next recession will hit though it’s closer now than when I started writing this sentence. But I’ve got two recessionary concerns: one, fiscal policy, both discretionary and automatic will be thoroughly insufficient due to the toxic mix of Congressional dysfunction and austerity; two, financial deregulation will raise the likelihood of another bubble. Second, the Senate...
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Here’s an idea: let’s have Congress micromanage the Fed…what could go wrong?
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Is the Fed fighting an old war?
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What’s the Fed Up to? Podcast version.
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One more point about the KS legislature’s KO (Kansas Override) of supply-side tax cuts
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Recycling an oldie/goodie: You wanna whack this and future recoveries? Get rid of Dodd-Frank
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This word “deregulation.” I don’t think it does what you think it does.
Simon Wren-Lewis
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UK monetary policy: you cannot be serious?
Nothing shocks me in the area of fiscal policy anymore, but I do have some faith that monetary policy makers know what they are doing. While fiscal policy makers in the US, UK and the EZ did precisely the wrong thing consistently from 2010, monetary policy makers rightly pulled out all the stops, and my main quarrel was that in the UK and EZ they pretended QE was an instrument with the same order of reliability as interest rates. Instead they...
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Austerity will only end when our leaders start being honest
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Raising the inflation target
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Conservative zugzwang
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GE2017 and the Media
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Labour and its Left
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Why has the US resisted Trump but the UK acquiesced to Brexit?
Free Exchange Economist
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Podcast: A poison chalice for GE’s new boss
[unable to retrieve full-text content]Patrick Foulis asks if a break-up is on the cards as General Electric appoints a new CEO. Also, Uber is on a collision course as it grapples with management problems. Why confidence among European companies is sky high. And tension in global trade in aluminium. Hosted by Philip Coggan.
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A new paper rekindles a tiresome debate on immigration and wages
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Podcast: Super Mario to the rescue
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Why the Fed is likely to raise rates, despite low inflation
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Europe inches closer to a plan for fixing its financial flaws
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Donald Trump’s budget ignores what is ailing American workers
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Podcast: Trumponomics
Nick Rowe
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How to value Aboriginal language television programming
Aboriginal programming is one of Canada's most worthwhile initiatives, from the classic radio program Dead Dog Cafe to Nick Rowe's favourite show, Moosemeat and Marmalade. But what is it worth? If you were asked to do an economic impact assessment of Aboriginal media - especially Aboriginal language programming - how would you do it? A lot of economic impact assessments work on the principle that the costs are the benefits - so the...
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Quebec is a distinct society, parental leave edition
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150 Years of Canadian National Defence Spending
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Remembering Peter George
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Job tenures and the gig economy
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Five things that can help you get your conference submission accepted
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Trade Wars: Then and Now
Miles Kimball
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David Wootton on the Triumph of the West
“We may therefore acquiesce in the pleasing conclusion that every age of the world has increased, and still increases, the real wealth, the happiness, the knowledge, and perhaps the virtue, of the human race.” These words were written by Edward Gibbon in 1781 at the end of his account of the fall of the Roman empire in the West. The claim seems obviously false when one thinks of the history of Europe over the five centuries after the fall of...
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Quartz #68–#x3E;Economics Is Unemotional—And That’s Why It Could Help Bridge America’s Partisan Divide
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Anglophone Economics Blogs Leaders
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Most Popular Posts So Far in 2017
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Michael Barr Named Dean of the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan
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John Locke on the Mandate of Heaven
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Adam Gurri—Liberals and Nationalists: Compromise Without Reconciliation
FT Alphaville
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Markets Live: Friday, 23rd June, 2017
11:01 am PM11:01amHi there PM11:01amWelcome to ML Blank canvas good morning Alchemy30 morning A. M. Morning all. PM11:01amI'm still getting used to being back 11:01 am PM11:01amAlways too much to read each morning PeterC Morning, more rumours on Carillion...
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Snap AV: One year on…
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Cost-cutting drive at former unicorn Ve Interactive hits fifth of UK staff
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Podcast: Michael Mandel on the case for productivity optimism
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Opening Quote: ECB seeks stronger oversight of euro clearing
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Further reading
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The good times are back for Treasury-market balance sheet (maybe)
Greg Mankiw
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Report from the NFF
It is now that time of year when I am enjoying the Nantucket Film Festival. My wife and I today saw The Big Sick. Despite the not very enticing title, we loved it. The film is based on the real-life romance of the two screen writers, emphasizing the difficulty of bridging cross-cultural expectations. It is more heartfelt than a standard rom-com, more comedic than a drama, more earnest than standard Hollywood fare. Most definitely recommended,...
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Hamilton Tickets Redux
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Advice for Young Economists
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Economists for Hassett
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On Taxes and Deficits
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A New Mankiw Publication
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Why people prefer unequal societies
John Cochrane’s blog
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Index funds and voting shares
Todd Henderson and Dorothy Shapiro Lund have an interesting OpEd in the Wall Street Journal, "Index funds are great for investors, risky for corporate governance." In brief, index funds don't participate heavily in monitoring companies, finding information about companies, or corporate control contests.This point echoes larger complaints that with the spread of index funds there ...
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The optimal inflation rate
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Reis on the state of macro
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The Treasury Portfolio
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Living Trusts for Banking
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NoahLogic
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A Revised Radical
Peterson Institute
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Forget About Brexit, Focus on the Euro Area Future
The Anglophone financial press is still giving prime coverage to the negotiations over Britain’s exit from the European Union. But Brexit has become a sideshow. The real economic news in Europe is being made in France and Germany, and it is of the good, potentially very good, type. The Brexit reality has finally caught up with David Davis, the UK Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, who quickly capitulated to all EU-27 demands on...
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The Eurogroup on Greece: Debt Relief with a Fiscal Straitjacket
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Higher Education Is Increasingly Valuable in the United States, Less So in France
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Are Germany and France Trying to Get the UK to Rescind Brexit?
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Mobile Phones and Monetary Policy
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A Defeated UK Leadership Clouds the Brexit Outlook
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Perils Ahead in European Politics
Ben Bernanke at Brookings
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Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy
By Ben S. Bernanke Over the years, I’ve done a lot thinking and writing about challenges faced by Japanese monetary policymakers in their attempts to combat deflation. In some of my earlier pieces I argued that, if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) showed more resolve, it could readily overcome these problems. But, in recent years, the Bank has shown great resolve, and while the results have generally been positive, deflation has not been decisively...
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The zero lower bound on interest rates: How should the Fed respond?
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How big a problem is the zero lower bound on interest rates?
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Why Dodd-Frank’s orderly liquidation authority should be preserved
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Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet
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The Fed and fiscal policy
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Federal Reserve economic projections: What are they good for?
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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The St. Louis Fed’s Macroeconomic Outlook
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard recently gave this speech on the U.S. macroeconomic outlook. The key themes of his talk were:The U.S. economy has converged to a low-growth, low-safe-real-interest-rate regime, a situation that is unlikely to change dramatically over the near future; The Fed can afford to take a wait-and-see posture in regard to possible changes in U.S. fiscal and regulatory policies; The U.S. policy rate can remain...
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Sectoral and Occupational Trends in the U.S. Labor Market
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Fiscal over monetary policy?
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A reply to Lawrence White
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A public finance case for keeping the Fed’s balance sheet large
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Can the blockchain kill fake news?
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Some recent economic developments in Japan
Macro and Other Market Musings
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Monetary Disequilibrium
[embedded content] This week on the podcast I had a great time talking the monetary disequilibrium view of business cycles with Steve Horwitz. This perspective sees the deviation between desired and actual money holdings as the cause of business cycles. Since money is the one asset on every market, all one needs to do is disrupt monetary equilibrium and you have disrupted every other market. This is not true for any other asset. The...
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Musings on June’s FOMC Meeting
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Is the United States Becoming Less of an Optimal Currency Area?
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China vs the Trilemma, Price Level Path, Balance Sheet Confusion, and FOMC Debates
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Bad Optics: the Fed’s Balance Sheet Edition
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Talking Monetary Policy with Paul Krugman
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Macro Musings 56: Ethan Ilzetzki on the U.S. Dollar as an Anchor Currency
John B. Taylor
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R-Star Wars
In a recent speech at the Economic Club of New York, Fed Governor Jay Powell stated that the endpoint of the Fed’s normalization process “will occur when our target reaches the long-run neutral rate of interest. Estimates of that rate are subject to significant uncertainty. The median estimate of its level by FOMC participants in March was 3 percent, more than a full percentage point below pre-crisis estimates.” The neutral rate of interest is...
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Principles of Economics 8.0: Lower Price and Better Format
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Another Takeaway from the Trump Trip: Targeting Terrorist Financing
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ECB Watching
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It’s Time to Pass the Financial Institutions Bankruptcy Act
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A New Hearing and, Possibly, a New Phase in Monetary Policy
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Milton Friedman on Freedom: A New Book
Roger Farmer’s Economic Window
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David and Goliath: The sunspot agenda meets the MIT machine
Two interesting developments occurred on the DSGE front this week. CEPR, the London based research organization, published an ebook on the future of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models and Aurélian Saïdi and Beatrice Cherrier released an updated version of their history of the Penn/CEPREMAP research agenda on indeterminacy and sunspots. There could have been, and should have been, considerable overlap in these two events. Sadly there...
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Cách Nên Kinh Tê Vân Hành
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Let’s All Be Keynesians Now
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Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory
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Keynesian Economics Without the Consumption Function
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Reinventing the Keynesian Cross
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Keynes Betrayed
Jeffrey Frankel’s Blog
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The Case against Subsidizing Housing Debt
SINGAPORE — At the end of the first quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, American consumer debt for the first time exceeded its previous peak (in dollars). That peak was in the 3rd quarter of 2008, just as the global financial crisis hit. Although car loans and student debt have been rising especially rapidly, housing debt remains more than 2/3 of the total ($8.6 trillion out of $12.7 trillion). As a share of income,...
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How to Re-Negotiate NAFTA
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Mnuchin and Manipulation of Money
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Let the US Fiduciary Rule Go Ahead
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Let the US Fiduciary Rule Go Ahead
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Looking Back on Barack
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Outlook for 2017
Brad Delong, Berkeley
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Must-See: CHM Live: Putting Your Finger On It: Creating the iPhone
Must-See: CHM Live: Putting Your Finger On It: Creating the iPhone: “Nitin Ganatra, Scott Herz, and Hugo Fiennes in Conversation with John Markoff… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xDRdWFdsoQ&ab_channel=ComputerHistoryMuseum …It seemed that innovation in mobile devices was beginning to slip away from Silicon Valley…. That all changed abruptly when Steve Jobs stepped onstage at Moscone Center in San Francisco and asserted he was...
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Should-Read: Sergio Espuelas: The inequality trap. A comparative analysis of social spending between 1880 and 1930
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Must-Read: Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch: New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates
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Must-Read: Michael Reich, Sylvia Allegretto, and Anna Godoey: Seattle’s Minimum Wage Experience 2015-16
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Should-Read: Eugene Wei (2012): Amazon, Apple, and the beauty of low margins
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Is the Fed being misguided by the Phillips curve?
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Must- and Should-Reads: June 20, 2017
Telegraph Blog
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Opinion
Your support makes a big difference In order to bring you award-winning content and investigative journalism from your favourite writers, we rely on revenue generated by advertising. Please consider supporting us by turning off your ad blocker.Just a couple of clicks will make a big difference. Thank you.
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Why David Cameron will struggle to out-Ukip Ukip on EU migration
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David Cameron promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union (yes – I mean it)
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Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD spells end to Europe’s false calm, warns S&P
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The truth about smoking – it saves the public purse a lot of money
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The Unionist way forward
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Scottish referendum: Out of the frying pan into the fire
